Tuesday, January 12, 2016

The Farce Is Strong with this Fed Chair

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The dot-com boom went bust… the housing boom went bust… now we have the Fed boom. These booms are all identical in that they were all f...
Friday, January 08, 2016

Employment Situation: Nonfarm Payrolls and Civilian Unemployment December 2015

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Today's  Employment Situation Report indicated that in December, net non-farm payrolls increased by a by a notable 292,000 jobs overall...

Employment Situation: Unemployment Duration December 2015

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Today's  employment situation report showed that conditions for the long term unemployed generally went flat in December. Workers une...

Employment Situation: Total Unemployment December 2015

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Today's  Employment Situation report showed that in December “total unemployment” including all marginally attached workers went flat a...
Thursday, January 07, 2016

Weekly Unemployment Claims: Initial and Continued January 07 2015

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Today’s jobless claims report showed a decline to initial unemployment claims as well as an increase to continued unemployment claims as se...

The Fed's Unraveling: Fisher's Reverse Wimpy Factor

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While it should come as no surprise that former Federal Reserve Bank President (and former voting member of the FOMC) Richard Fisher speaks ...
Wednesday, January 06, 2016

ISM Non-Manufacturing Report on Business: December 2015

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Today, the Institute for Supply Management released their latest Non-Manufacturing Report on Business indicating that service related bu...

ADP Manufacturing Meltdown

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Looking a bit deeper at today's ADP Employment Report , one finds yet another clear signal that the current expansion has topped-out mak...

ADP National Employment Report: December 2015

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Today, private staffing and business services firm ADP released the latest installment of their National Employment Report indicating that...
Tuesday, January 05, 2016

Recession Watch: Chauvet-Piger and Term Spread Probabilities January 2015

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For forecasting oncoming recession, from a purely statistical standpoint, we have two interesting data series to follow, the Chauvet-Piger ...

The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: December 2015

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Recently, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas released their latest read on manufacturing in their region indicating that manufacturing a...
Monday, January 04, 2016

ISM Manufacturing Report on Business: December 2015

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Today, the Institute for Supply Management released their latest Report on Business for the manufacturing sector indicating that manufact...

Construction Spending: November 2015

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Today, the U.S. Census Bureau released their latest read of construction spending showing improved residential spending but weakening non-r...
Thursday, December 31, 2015

Yellen’s Myth (Part 1)

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Notwithstanding Fed Chair Yellen’s certainty about her “myths” , recession indicators are continuing to accumulate as the current U.S. ec...

Weekly Unemployment Claims: Initial and Continued December 31 2015

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Today’s jobless claims report showed a notable increase to initial unemployment claims as well as an slight increase to continued unemploym...