![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiNBd_J8yshLJustu2JOoc9s8fp0TP80Dmz8MIOxiCYb2i1ntQpvHO6NYZ91h9kwBitclr-kw3EUsO8QGHiWp4mdnKy5DdB1sR_FuK-0haCp8q4H6ErHiQpgiqaIC5Aq79e5Ibs/s280/organic3.gif)
As I have noted in prior posts, the S&P/Case-Shiller sale pair counts series are, to my knowledge, the best “organic” existing home sales series as can be found.
The methodology employed by S&P vets out “flips”, new construction and even most distressed sales providing them with a solid base of true “arms-length” sales for which to base their more popular home prices series on.
As has been widely reported, some 30%-40% of all existing sales (as reported by the NAR) are distressed properties resulting in a significant gap between the trends in new and existing home sales.
Existing home sales have been essentially propped up by the high volume of distressed properties resulting in a poor indicator of the true trends for non-distressed typical existing home sales.
Yet, looking at the chart (click for super dynamic full-screen version) which compares the seasonally adjusted new home sales series and the non-seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller Composit-10 sale pair count series, both smoothed with a 12 month simple moving average, you can see that there is a great degree of correlation between the two trends.
A bottom to our current housing cycle will not be defined by a single data series on a single month but instead will be a long slow slog whereby multiple market factors clear in a cumbersome "fits and starts" manner.