Paper Economy

A Blog dedicated to tracking economic trends and financial matters.

Showing posts with label probability. Show all posts
Showing posts with label probability. Show all posts
Tuesday, January 05, 2016

Recession Watch: Chauvet-Piger and Term Spread Probabilities January 2015

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For forecasting oncoming recession, from a purely statistical standpoint, we have two interesting data series to follow, the Chauvet-Piger ...
Friday, January 04, 2013

Recession Watch 2013: Term Spread Probability Series

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With the weak economic recovery fast approaching its fourth continuous year of expansion, its sensible to start looking for clues, howeve...
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