The Chicago Fed National Activity Index: April 2012

Today’s release of the Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index (CFNAI) showed improvement for the national economy with the index increasing from last month to stand at 0.11 while the three month moving average also declined to -0.06.

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity collected into four overall categories of “production and income”, “employment, unemployment and income”, “personal consumption and housing” and “sales, orders and inventories”.

The Chicago Fed regards a value of zero for the total index as indicating that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate while a negative value indicates below average growth.

A value at or below -0.70 for the three month moving average of the national activity index (CFNAI-MA3) indicates that the national economy has either just entered or continues in recession.

Fannie Mae Delinquencies: March 2012

The latest release of the Fannie Mae Monthly Summary indicated that total serious single family delinquency declined slightly in March while remaining at distressed levels.

In March, 2.93% of non-credit enhanced loans went seriously delinquent while the level was 8.35% of credit enhanced loans resulting in an overall total single family delinquency of 3.67%.

The following charts (click for larger ultra-dynamic and surf-able chart) show what Fannie Mae terms the count of “Seriously Delinquent” loans as a percentage of all loans on their books.

It’s important to understand that Fannie Mae does NOT segregate foreclosures from delinquent loans when reporting these numbers.

New Residential Construction Report: April 2012

Today’s New Residential Construction Report showed gains in April with single family permits increasing from March while starts also increased over the same period.

Single family housing permits, the most leading of indicators, increased a notable 1.9% from March to 475K single family units (SAAR), and increased 18.5% above the level seen in April 2011 but still remained  an astonishing 73.58% below the peak in September 2005.

Single family housing starts increased 2.3% from March to 492K units (SAAR), and climbed 18.8% above the level seen in April 2011 and remained a stunning 73.01% below the peak set in early 2006.

Index of Stress: May 2012

The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis recently began publishing a new weekly index that seeks to track the general level of financial stress.

As periods of financial stress come and go a whole host of fundamental economic indicators immediately adjust to meet the near and long term expectations of market participants

Interest rates, yields spreads, popular market volatility indices all move in real time giving observers unequivocal evidence of changes general sentiment.

The St. Louis Fed has devised a method of crunching eighteen of these sensitive indices down into one convenient index it calls the St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index (STLFSI).

The latest results of the STLFSI indicate that the level of financial stress remains elevated with May's results near at .27.

On The Stamp: Food Stamp Participation February 2012

As a logical consequence of the prolonged economic downturn it appears that participation in the federal food stamp program is continuing to rise.

In fact, household participation has been climbing so steadily that it has far surpassed the last peak (which looks like a minor blip by comparison) set as a result of the immediate fallout following hurricane Katrina.

The latest data released by the Department of Agriculture shows that in February, 123,385 recipients were removed from the food stamps program with the current total still increasing 4.81% on a year-over-year basis while household participation increased 6.56%.

Individual participation as a ratio of the overall civilian non-institutional population has increased 3.26% over the same period.

Participation continues to swell with nominal benefit costs climbing a lofty 4.61% on a year-over-year basis to $6.16 billion for the month.

Reading Rates: MBA Application Survey – May 09 2012

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages as well as the volume of both purchase and refinance applications.

The purchase application index has been highlighted as a particularly important data series as it very broadly captures the demand side of residential real estate for both new and existing home purchases.

The latest data is showing that the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage (from FHA and conforming GSE data) declined 1 basis point to 3.91% since last week while the purchase application volume increased 3.4% and the refinance application increased 1.3% over the same period.

The following chart shows the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages since 2006 as well as the purchase, refinance and composite loan volumes (click for larger dynamic full-screen version).

Radar Watching: March 2012

As I have noted in the past, since the home price index data provided by Radar Logic is more timely, unadjusted and un-smoothed it is particularly useful for gaining deeper visibility over our housing markets.

As for the latest trends, it’s important to note that the 25-MSA Composite is showing significant year-over-year declines while prices continue to bounce from the lows set in late-January.

The latest data shows that as of early-March, prices have declined 2.71% below the level seen in March 2011 continuing the pattern of past years with prices now heading higher as the data moves into the typically more active spring selling season.

Hong Kong Bubble?: Hong Kong Residential Property Prices February 2012

Today, the University of Hong Kong released their Hong Kong Residential Real Estate Series (HKU-REIS) indicating that, in February, the price of residential properties increased a notable 2.05% since January and climbed 5.96% above the level seen in February 2011.

It appears that after a notable pullback in late-2011 prices are beginning to show some improvement with all measures rising on the month.

The HKU-REIS is a set of property price indices constructed monthly using a “modified” repeat-sale methodology similar to that of the S&P/Case-Shiller indices yet suited to the Hong Kong property market.

Envisioning Employment: Employment Situation April 2012

Today’s Employment Situation Report indicated that in April, net nonfarm payrolls increased with private nonfarm payrolls adding 130,000 jobs and the unemployment rate declining slightly to 8.1% over the same period.

Net private sector jobs increased 0.12% since last month climbing 1.86% above the level seen a year ago but but remained a whopping 3.97% below the peak level of employment seen in December 2007.

Full Time Workers Fully Under Pressure: April 2012

Today’s employment situation report showed that in April the full time unemployment rate declined slightly to 8.5% of the civilian workforce but remains near the highest rate seen in 41 years.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics considers full time workers to be those “who have expressed a desire to work full time (35 hours or more per week) or are on layoff from full-time jobs”.

Full time jobless workers currently account for roughly 88.5% of all unemployed workers.

Recovery-less Recovery: Unemployment Duration April 2012

Be sure to bookmark the "Scary Unemployment Dashboard"... it's live.

Today's employment situation report showed that conditions for the long term unemployed improved in April but remained epically distressed by historic standards.

Workers unemployed 27 weeks or more declined to 5.101 million or 41.3% of all unemployed workers while the median number of weeks unemployed declined to 19.4 weeks and the average stay on unemployment declined to 39.1 weeks, the highest level ever recorded.

Looking at the charts below (click for super interactive versions) you can see that today’s sorry situation far exceeds even the conditions seen during the double-dip recessionary period of the early 1980s, long considered by economists to be the worst period of unemployment since the Great Depression.

On The Margin: Total Unemployment April 2012

Today’s Employment Situation report showed that in April “total unemployment” including all marginally attached workers went flat at 14.5% while the traditionally reported unemployment rate declined slightly to 8.1%.

The traditional unemployment rate is calculated from the monthly household survey results using a fairly explicit definition of “unemployed” (essentially unemployed and currently looking for full time employment) leaving many workers to be considered effectively “on the margin” either employed in part time work when full time is preferred or simply unemployed and no longer looking for work.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics considers “marginally attached” workers (including discouraged workers) and persons who have settled for part time employment to be “underutilized” labor.

The broadest view of unemployment would include both traditionally unemployed workers and all other underutilized workers.

To calculate the “total” rate of unemployment we would simply use this larger group rather than the smaller and more restrictive “unemployed” group used in the traditional unemployment rate calculation.

ISM Non-Manufacturing Report on Business: April 2012

Today, the Institute for Supply Management released their latest Non-Manufacturing Report on Business indicating that service related business activity declined notably in April with the business activity component dropping while the overall non-manufacturing index declined to 53.5 from 56.0 in March.

At 54.6 the business activity index declined 7.30% since March dropping 2.50% below the level seen a year earlier.

This month, service industry respondents are sounding mixed with lower expectations than earlier in the year though still reasonably optimistic for economic activity in 2012:

"Sales have improved slightly, yet still lag behind pre-recession highs. The hiring freeze has been lifted, but open positions are still being vetted for need, timing of the fill, and so forth." (Public Administration)

"Business conditions have improved in March and April 2012. We have received more job inquiries and job awards in this period. The increase is about 15 percent." (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services)

"Current conditions compared to prior year are good. Fuel and food continue to be a challenge." (Arts, Entertainment & Recreation)

"Business is slowing — and projections for the rest of the year are being lowered." (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services)

"Business is still ahead of last year, but has leveled off a little." (Wholesale Trade)

"High price of petroleum/oil driving up costs for all market areas." (Transportation & Warehousing)

"Sales have improved slightly, yet still lag behind pre-recession highs. The hiring freeze has been lifted, but open positions are still being vetted for need, timing of the fill, and so forth." (Public Administration)

"Business conditions have improved in March and April 2012. We have received more job inquiries and job awards in this period. The increase is about 15 percent." (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services)

"Current conditions compared to prior year are good. Fuel and food continue to be a challenge." (Arts, Entertainment & Recreation)

"Business is slowing — and projections for the rest of the year are being lowered." (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services)

"Business is still ahead of last year, but has leveled off a little." (Wholesale Trade)

"High price of petroleum/oil driving up costs for all market areas." (Transportation & Warehousing)

On The Pulse: Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index April 2012

Today's release of the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI) suggests that economic activity improved slightly in April with the seasonally adjusted index climbing 0.05% from March but falling 1.89% below the level seen in April 2011.

The three month moving average of the PCI increased slightly from March indicating that the April Industrial Production data will likely show a similar trend.

Extended Unemployment: Initial, Continued and Extended Unemployment Claims May 03 2012

Today’s jobless claims report showed a notable declined to both initial and continued unemployment claims while seasonally adjusted initial claims continued to trend well below the closely watched 400K level.

Seasonally adjusted “initial” declined to 365,000 claims from last week’s revised 392,000 claims while seasonally adjusted “continued” claims declined by 53,000 resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 2.6%.

Since the middle of 2008 though, two federal government sponsored “extended” unemployment benefit programs (the “extended benefits” and “EUC 2008” from recent legislation) have been picking up claimants that have fallen off of the traditional unemployment benefits rolls.

Currently there are some 3.07 million people receiving federal “extended” unemployment benefits.

Taken together with the latest 3.42 million people that are currently counted as receiving traditional continued unemployment benefits, there are 6.50 million people on state and federal unemployment rolls.