Paper Economy

Today, the Institute for Supply Management released their latest Report on Business for the manufacturing sector indicating that manufact...

Looking a bit deeper at today's ADP Employment Report , one finds yet another clear signal that the current expansion may have topped-ou...

Today, the Federal Reserve released their monthly read of industrial production and capacity utilization showing continued weakness in Mar...

Today, the Institute for Supply Management released their latest Report on Business for the manufacturing sector indicating that manufact...

Today, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas released their latest read on manufacturing in their region indicating that assessments of man...

The latest release of the Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index (CFNAI) indicated that the national economic improved in January ...

Various regional Federal Reserve Banks routinely publish measures of financial stress which seek to distill many indications of financial ...

The February release of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey (BOS) indicated continued weakness in the regio...

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey consists of a series of diffusion indices distilled from a monthly survey of New York regional manu...

Looking a bit deeper at today's ADP Employment Report , one finds yet another clear signal that the current expansion has topped-out mak...

The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City , like other district FRBs (New York, Philadelphia, Richmond and Dallas), tracks its region’s manu...

Today, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas released their latest read on manufacturing in their region indicating that assessments of man...

Do you feel your economy will get lucky? … Well do you, punk!? I for one believe that the path of least resistance is down at this poin...

While Fed Chair Janet Yellen is apparently not able to “see anything in the underlying strength of the economy that would lead me to be c...

Looking a bit deeper at today's ADP Employment Report , one finds yet another clear signal that the current expansion has topped-out mak...

For forecasting oncoming recession, from a purely statistical standpoint, we have two interesting data series to follow, the Chauvet-Piger ...

In Mid 2007, then Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke apparently (as he recently suggested in his book about the crisis) completely mis...

For forecasting oncoming recession, from a purely statistical standpoint, we have two interesting data series to follow, the Piger Recessio...

With the weak economic recovery lagging through its fourth continuous year, its sensible to start looking for clues, however so slight, o...

Last year  I reported on a relatively new recession probability indicator (… the “markov switching” series recently introduced to the Fe...