Paper Economy

A Blog dedicated to tracking economic trends and financial matters.

Showing posts with label term spread probability. Show all posts
Showing posts with label term spread probability. Show all posts
Wednesday, July 15, 2015

Recession Watch: Piger and Term Spread Probabilities

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For forecasting oncoming recession, from a purely statistical standpoint, we have two interesting data series to follow, the Piger Recessio...
Wednesday, July 10, 2013

Recession Watch 2013: Term Spread Probability Series

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With the weak economic recovery lagging through its fourth continuous year, its sensible to start looking for clues, however so slight, o...
Friday, January 04, 2013

Recession Watch 2013: Term Spread Probability Series

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With the weak economic recovery fast approaching its fourth continuous year of expansion, its sensible to start looking for clues, howeve...
Friday, August 19, 2011

Recession Redux?: August 2011

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With the economy weakening significantly over the last few months and the growing threat of an "double-dip" recession, let’s take ...
Friday, June 10, 2011

Recession Redux?: May 2011

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With much of the econ-finance talk these days still centered around the possibility of a looming “double-dip” let’s take a closer look at tw...
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