OECD Composite Leading Indicators: September 2011

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The Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) publishes a wealth of data tracking the fundamental economic dynamics of the world’s largest economies.

The OECD leading indicator, industrial production, business confidence and consumer confidence series all disclose important and timely clues to the state of each respective economy or group of economies.

The latest monthly results indicate that economic conditions in the global economy have weakened notably with the total leading index declining 0.17% since August dropping 0.55% below the level seen in September 2010 while two more timely indicators of business and consumer confidence slumped dramatically.

Total Business confidence plunged 0.59% since September (more timely data) falling 2.42% below the level seen in October 2010.

Total Consumer confidence dropped 0.31% since September (more timely data) slumping 2.57% below the level seen in October 2010.

Confidence Game: Consumer, CEO and Investor Confidence December 2009

This post combines the latest results of the Rueters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers, the Conference Board’s Index of CEO Confidence and the State Street Global Markets Index of Investor Confidence indicators.

These three indicators should disclose a clear picture of the overall sense of confidence (or lack thereof) on the part of consumers, businesses and investors as the current recessionary period develops.

The recent early release of the Reuters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers for December showed an increase in consumer sentiment with a reading of 73.4, a increase of 22.13% above the level seen in December 2008.

The Index of Consumer Expectations (an important component of the Conference Board’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators) increased to 69.7 resting 29.07% above the result seen in December 2008.

As for the current circumstances, the Current Economic Conditions Index decreased to 79.1 or 13.81% above the result seen in December 2008.

The latest quarterly results (Q3 2009) of The Conference Board’s CEO Confidence Index climbed to a value of 63 indicating that CEOs are more optimistic about their future prospects.

The November release of the State Street Global Markets Index of Investor Confidence indicated that confidence for North American institutional investors increased 1.1% since October while European confidence increased 3.7% and Asian investor confidence declined 4.1% all resulting in an decrease of 7.6% to the aggregate Global Investor Confidence Index which now rests 19.57% above the result seen last year.

The chart below (click for larger version) shows the Global Investor Confidence aggregate index.

Confidence Game: Consumer, CEO and Investor Confidence November 2009

This post combines the latest results of the Rueters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers, the Conference Board’s Index of CEO Confidence and the State Street Global Markets Index of Investor Confidence indicators.

These three indicators should disclose a clear picture of the overall sense of confidence (or lack thereof) on the part of consumers, businesses and investors as the current recessionary period develops.

Today’s early release of the Reuters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers for November showed a decline in consumer sentiment with a reading of 66, a increase of 19.35% above the level seen in November 2008.

The Index of Consumer Expectations (an important component of the Conference Board’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators) declined to 63.7 resting 18.18% above the result seen in November 2008.

As for the current circumstances, the Current Economic Conditions Index decreased to 69.6 or 21.04% above the result seen in November 2008.

The latest quarterly results (Q3 2009) of The Conference Board’s CEO Confidence Index climbed to a value of 63 indicating that CEOs are more optimistic about their future prospects.

The October release of the State Street Global Markets Index of Investor Confidence indicated that confidence for North American institutional investors declined 12.8% since September while European confidence declined 9.3% and Asian investor confidence increased 2.4% all resulting in a decrease of 10.0% to the aggregate Global Investor Confidence Index which now rests a whopping 32.03% above the result seen last year.

The chart below (click for larger version) shows the Global Investor Confidence aggregate index.

Confidence Game: Consumer, CEO and Investor Confidence October 2009

This post combines the latest results of the Reuters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers, the Conference Board’s Index of CEO Confidence and the State Street Global Markets Index of Investor Confidence indicators.

These three indicators should disclose a clear picture of the overall sense of confidence (or lack thereof) on the part of consumers, businesses and investors as the current recessionary period develops.

Today’s early release of the Reuters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers for October indicated a decline in consumer sentiment with a reading of 69.4.

The Index of Consumer Expectations (an important component of the Conference Board’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators) decreased to 67.6.

As for the current circumstances, the Current Economic Conditions Index declined to 72.1 or 23.46% above the result seen in October 2008.

The latest quarterly results (Q3 2009) of The Conference Board’s CEO Confidence Index climbed to a value of 63 indicating that CEOs are more optimistic about their future prospects.

The September release of the State Street Global Markets Index of Investor Confidence indicated that confidence for North American institutional investors declined 4.6% since August while European confidence increased 1.6% and Asian investor confidence increased 1.3% all resulting in a decrease of 4.7% to the aggregate Global Investor Confidence Index which now rests a whopping 20.39% above the result seen last year.

The chart below (click for larger version) shows the Global Investor Confidence aggregate index.

Confidence Game: Consumer, CEO and Investor Confidence September 2009

This post combines the latest results of the Reuters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers, the Conference Board’s Index of CEO Confidence and the State Street Global Markets Index of Investor Confidence indicators.

These three indicators should disclose a clear picture of the overall sense of confidence (or lack thereof) on the part of consumers, businesses and investors as the current recessionary period develops.

Today’s early release of the Reuters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers for September showed a jump in consumer sentiment with a reading of 70.2 an slight decrease of 0.14% below the level seen in September 2008.

The Index of Consumer Expectations (an important component of the Conference Board’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators) increased to 69.2 resting just 2.98% above the result seen in September 2008.

As for the current circumstances, the Current Economic Conditions Index increased to 71.8 or 4.27% below the result seen in September 2008.

The latest quarterly results (Q2 2009) of The Conference Board’s CEO Confidence Index surged to a value of 55 indicating that CEOs are more optimistic about their future prospects.

The August release of the State Street Global Markets Index of Investor Confidence indicated that confidence for North American institutional investors declined 2.2% since July while European confidence increased 4.3% and Asian investor confidence declined 2.3% all resulting in an increase of 3.5% to the aggregate Global Investor Confidence Index which now rests a whopping 19.79% above the result seen last year.

The chart below (click for larger version) shows the Global Investor Confidence aggregate index.

Confidence Game: Consumer, CEO and Investor Confidence August 2009 (Early)

This post combines the latest results of the Rueters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers, the Conference Board’s Index of CEO Confidence and the State Street Global Markets Index of Investor Confidence indicators into a combined presentation that will run twice monthly as preliminary data is firmed.

These three indicators should disclose a clear picture of the overall sense of confidence (or lack thereof) on the part of consumers, businesses and investors as the current recessionary period develops.

Today’s early release of the Reuters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers for August showed another unexpected decline in consumer sentiment with a reading of 63.2 only an slight increase of 0.32% above the level seen in August 2008.

The Index of Consumer Expectations (an important component of the Conference Board’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators) declined again to 62.1 resting just 7.25% above the result seen in August 2008.

As for the current circumstances, the Current Economic Conditions Index declined to 64 or 9.86% below the result seen in August 2008.

The latest quarterly results (Q2 2009) of The Conference Board’s CEO Confidence Index surged to a value of 55 indicating that CEOs are more optimistic about their future prospects.

The July release of the State Street Global Markets Index of Investor Confidence indicated that confidence for North American institutional investors increased 6.7% since June while European confidence increased 8.7% and Asian investor confidence increased 1.9% all resulting in an increase of 3.6% to the aggregate Global Investor Confidence Index which now rests 11.59% above the result seen last year.

The chart below (click for larger version) shows the Global Investor Confidence aggregate index.

Confidence Game: Consumer, CEO and Investor Confidence July 2009 (Early)

This post combines the latest results of the Rueters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers, the Conference Board’s Index of CEO Confidence and the State Street Global Markets Index of Investor Confidence indicators into a combined presentation that will run twice monthly as preliminary data is firmed.

These three indicators should disclose a clear picture of the overall sense of confidence (or lack thereof) on the part of consumers, businesses and investors as the current recessionary period develops.

Today’s early release of the Reuters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers for July showed an unexpected drop in consumer sentiment with a reading of 64.6 remaining just 5.56% above the level seen in July 2008.

The Index of Consumer Expectations (an important component of the Conference Board’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators) slumped significantly declining to 60.9 or 13.83% above the result seen in July 2008.

As for the current circumstances, the Current Economic Conditions Index decreased to 70.4 or 3.69% below the result seen in July 2008.

The latest quarterly results (Q2 2009) of The Conference Board’s CEO Confidence Index increased to a value of 55 as optimism over a second half recovery overshadows the current sluggish outlook.

The June release of the State Street Global Markets Index of Investor Confidence indicated that confidence for North American institutional investors increased 6.2% since May while European confidence increased 9.1% and Asian investor confidence decreased 1.3% all resulting in an increase of 7.0% to the aggregate Global Investor Confidence Index which now rests 9.17% above the result seen last year.

The chart below (click for larger version) shows the Global Investor Confidence aggregate index.

Confidence Game: Consumer, CEO and Investor Confidence June 2009 (Early)

This post combines the latest results of the Rueters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers, the Conference Board’s Index of CEO Confidence and the State Street Global Markets Index of Investor Confidence indicators into a combined presentation that will run twice monthly as preliminary data is firmed.

These three indicators should disclose a clear picture of the overall sense of confidence (or lack thereof) on the part of consumers, businesses and investors as the current recessionary period develops.

Today’s final release of the Reuters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers for June showed a another bump up for consumer sentiment with a reading of 70.8 an increase of 25.53% above the level seen in June 2008.

The Index of Consumer Expectations (an important component of the Conference Board’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators) declined to 69.2 resting 40.65% above the result seen in June 2008.

As for the current circumstances, the Current Economic Conditions Index increased to 73.2 or 8.28% above the result seen in June 2008.

The latest quarterly results (Q1 2009) of The Conference Board’s CEO Confidence Index increased to a value of 30, but still remains near the lowest reading in the history of the index.

The May release of the State Street Global Markets Index of Investor Confidence indicated that confidence for North American institutional investors increased 9.6% since April while European confidence increased 7.5% and Asian investor confidence decreased 4.9% all resulting in an increase of 3.1% to the aggregate Global Investor Confidence Index which now rests 5.74% above the result seen last year.

It’s important to note that with the May release, State Street revised the entire series in an effort to “provide a better guide as to the level of risk tolerance”.

In the release they suggest that the only change that made was a re-basing of the series to 100 but the curve seems to reflect a change in the methodology too.

In any event, the current series appears to confirm that since 2000 the trend has been consistently down as investor’s sentiment and apparently “tolerance for risk” has continually eroded.

The chart below (click for larger version) shows the Global Investor Confidence aggregate index.

Confidence Game: Consumer, CEO and Investor Confidence May 2009 (Final)

This post combines the latest results of the Rueters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers, the Conference Board’s Index of CEO Confidence and the State Street Global Markets Index of Investor Confidence indicators into a combined presentation that will run twice monthly as preliminary data is firmed.

These three indicators should disclose a clear picture of the overall sense of confidence (or lack thereof) on the part of consumers, businesses and investors as the current recessionary period develops.

Today’s final release of the Reuters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers for May showed a another bump up for consumer sentiment with a reading of 68.7 an increase of 14.88% above the level seen in May 2008.

The Index of Consumer Expectations (an important component of the Conference Board’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators) increased to 69.4 climbing 35.81% above the result seen in May 2008.

As for the current circumstances, the Current Economic Conditions Index declined to 67.7 or -7.64% below the result seen in May 2008.

The latest quarterly results (Q1 2009) of The Conference Board’s CEO Confidence Index increased to a value of 30, but still remains near the lowest reading in the history of the index.

The May release of the State Street Global Markets Index of Investor Confidence indicated that confidence for North American institutional investors increased 9.6% since April while European confidence increased 7.5% and Asian investor confidence decreased 4.9% all resulting in an increase of 3.1% to the aggregate Global Investor Confidence Index which now rests 5.74% above the result seen last year.

It’s important to note that with the May release, State Street revised the entire series in an effort to “provide a better guide as to the level of risk tolerance”.

In the release they suggest that the only change that made was a re-basing of the series to 100 but the curve seems to reflect a change in the methodology too.

In any event, the current series appears to confirm that since 2000 the trend has been consistently down as investor’s sentiment and apparently “tolerance for risk” has continually eroded.

The chart below (click for larger version) shows the Global Investor Confidence aggregate index.

Confidence Game: Consumer, CEO and Investor Confidence April 2009 (Final)

This post combines the latest results of the Rueters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers, the Conference Board’s Index of CEO Confidence and the State Street Global Markets Index of Investor Confidence indicators into a combined presentation that will run twice monthly as preliminary data is firmed.

These three indicators should disclose a clear picture of the overall sense of confidence (or lack thereof) on the part of consumers, businesses and investors as the current recessionary period develops.

Today’s final release of the Reuters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers for April showed a bump up for consumer sentiment with a reading of 65.1 an increase of 3.99% above the level seen in April 2008.

The Index of Consumer Expectations (an important component of the Conference Board’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators) increased to 63.1 climbing 18.39% above the result seen in April 2008.

As for the current circumstances, the Current Economic Conditions Index increased to 68.3 or 11.30% below the result seen in April 2008.

The latest quarterly results (Q1 2009) of The Conference Board’s CEO Confidence Index increased to a value of 30, but still remains near the lowest reading in the history of the index.

The April release of the State Street Global Markets Index of Investor Confidence indicated that confidence for North American institutional investors increased 10.0% since March while European confidence increased 5.0% and Asian investor confidence increased 0.7% all resulting in an increase of 9.4% to the aggregate Global Investor Confidence Index which now rests 10.10% above the result seen last year.

Given that that the confidence indices purport to “measure investor confidence on a quantitative basis by analyzing the actual buying and selling patterns of institutional investors”, it’s interesting to consider the performance surrounding the 2001 recession and reflect on the performance seen more recently.

During the dot-com unwinding it appears that institutional investor confidence was largely unaffected even as the major market indices eroded substantially (DJI -37.9%, S&P 500 -48.2%, Nasdaq -78%).

But today, in the face of the tremendous headwinds coming from the housing decline and the mortgage-credit debacle, it appears that institutional investors are less stalwart.

Since August 2007, investor confidence has declined significantly led primarily by a material drop-off in the confidence of investors in North America.

The chart below (click for larger version) shows the Global Investor Confidence aggregate index.

Confidence Game: Consumer, CEO and Investor Confidence April 2009 (Early)

This post combines the latest results of the Rueters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers, the Conference Board’s Index of CEO Confidence and the State Street Global Markets Index of Investor Confidence indicators into a combined presentation that will run twice monthly as preliminary data is firmed.

These three indicators should disclose a clear picture of the overall sense of confidence (or lack thereof) on the part of consumers, businesses and investors as the current recessionary period develops.

Today’s preliminary release of the Reuters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers for March showed a continued slump for consumer sentiment with a reading of 61.9 dropping just 1.12% below the level seen in April 2008.

The Index of Consumer Expectations (an important component of the Conference Board’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators) increased to 58.9 climbing 10.51% above the result seen in April 2008.

As for the current circumstances, the Current Economic Conditions Index increased to 66.6 or 13.51% below the result seen in April 2008.

The latest quarterly results (Q1 2009) of The Conference Board’s CEO Confidence Index increased to a value of 30, but still remains near the lowest reading in the history of the index.

The March release of the State Street Global Markets Index of Investor Confidence indicated that confidence for North American institutional investors declined 4.8% since February while European confidence declined 3.2% and Asian investor confidence increased 2.5% all resulting in a decrease of 2.7% to the aggregate Global Investor Confidence Index which now rests 9.33% below the result seen last year.

Given that that the confidence indices purport to “measure investor confidence on a quantitative basis by analyzing the actual buying and selling patterns of institutional investors”, it’s interesting to consider the performance surrounding the 2001 recession and reflect on the performance seen more recently.

During the dot-com unwinding it appears that institutional investor confidence was largely unaffected even as the major market indices eroded substantially (DJI -37.9%, S&P 500 -48.2%, Nasdaq -78%).

But today, in the face of the tremendous headwinds coming from the housing decline and the mortgage-credit debacle, it appears that institutional investors are less stalwart.

Since August 2007, investor confidence has declined significantly led primarily by a material drop-off in the confidence of investors in North America.

The chart below (click for larger version) shows the Global Investor Confidence aggregate index.

Confidence Game: Consumer, CEO and Investor Confidence March 2009 (Early)

This post combines the latest results of the Rueters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers, the Conference Board’s Index of CEO Confidence and the State Street Global Markets Index of Investor Confidence indicators into a combined presentation that will run twice monthly as preliminary data is firmed.

These three indicators should disclose a clear picture of the overall sense of confidence (or lack thereof) on the part of consumers, businesses and investors as the current recessionary period develops.

The recent preliminary early release of the Reuters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers for March showed a continued slump for consumer sentiment with a reading of 56.6 and dropping 18.56% below the level seen in March 2008.

The Index of Consumer Expectations (a component of the Index of Leading Economic Indicators) increased to 53 remaining 11.81% below the result seen in March 2008.

As for the current circumstances, the Current Economic Conditions Index continued to decline falling to 62.3 or 26.01% below the result seen in March 2008.

As you can see from the chart below (click for larger), the consumer sentiment data is a pretty good indicator of recessions leaving the recent declines possibly predicting rough times ahead.

The latest quarterly results (Q4 2008) of The Conference Board’s CEO Confidence Index declined dramatically to a value of 24, the lowest reading in the history of the index.

The February release of the State Street Global Markets Index of Investor Confidence indicated that confidence for North American institutional investors increased 13% since January while European confidence declined 3.2% and Asian investor confidence declined 2.7% all resulting in an increase of 12.7% to the aggregate Global Investor Confidence Index which now rests .41% above the result seen last year.

Given that that the confidence indices purport to “measure investor confidence on a quantitative basis by analyzing the actual buying and selling patterns of institutional investors”, it’s interesting to consider the performance surrounding the 2001 recession and reflect on the performance seen more recently.

During the dot-com unwinding it appears that institutional investor confidence was largely unaffected even as the major market indices eroded substantially (DJI -37.9%, S&P 500 -48.2%, Nasdaq -78%).

But today, in the face of the tremendous headwinds coming from the housing decline and the mortgage-credit debacle, it appears that institutional investors are less stalwart.

Since August 2007, investor confidence has declined significantly led primarily by a material drop-off in the confidence of investors in North America.

The chart below (click for larger version) shows the Global Investor Confidence aggregate index.

Confidence Game: Consumer, CEO and Investor Confidence February 2009 (Preliminary)

This post combines the latest results of the Rueters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers, the Conference Board’s Index of CEO Confidence and the State Street Global Markets Index of Investor Confidence indicators into a combined presentation that will run twice monthly as preliminary data is firmed.

These three indicators should disclose a clear picture of the overall sense of confidence (or lack thereof) on the part of consumers, businesses and investors as the current recessionary period develops.

Today’s preliminary release of the Reuters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers showed a continued slump for consumer sentiment with a reading of 56.2 and dropping 20.62% below the level seen in February 2008.

The Index of Consumer Expectations (a component of the Index of Leading Economic Indicators) declined notably to 49.1 remaining 21.31% below the result seen in February 2008.

As for the current circumstances, the Current Economic Conditions Index increased slightly to 67.1 but remained 19.93% below the result seen in February 2008.

As you can see from the chart below (click for larger), the consumer sentiment data is a pretty good indicator of recessions leaving the recent declines possibly predicting rough times ahead.

The latest quarterly results (Q4 2008) of The Conference Board’s CEO Confidence Index declined dramatically to a value of 24, the lowest reading in the history of the index.

The January release of the State Street Global Markets Index of Investor Confidence indicated that confidence for North American institutional investors increased 21.2% since December while European confidence increased 6.7% and Asian investor confidence declined 0.3% all resulting in an increase of 12.1% to the aggregate Global Investor Confidence Index which now rests 13.24% below the result seen last year.

Given that that the confidence indices purport to “measure investor confidence on a quantitative basis by analyzing the actual buying and selling patterns of institutional investors”, it’s interesting to consider the performance surrounding the 2001 recession and reflect on the performance seen more recently.

During the dot-com unwinding it appears that institutional investor confidence was largely unaffected even as the major market indices eroded substantially (DJI -37.9%, S&P 500 -48.2%, Nasdaq -78%).

But today, in the face of the tremendous headwinds coming from the housing decline and the mortgage-credit debacle, it appears that institutional investors are less stalwart.

Since August 2007, investor confidence has declined significantly led primarily by a material drop-off in the confidence of investors in North America.

The chart below (click for larger version) shows the Global Investor Confidence aggregate index.