S&P Core Logic Case-Shiller: February 2017

Today's release of the S&P Core Logic Case-Shiller (CSI) home price indices for February reported that the non-seasonally adjusted National index increased from January with prices rising 0.24% while the non-seasonally adjusted Composite-10 city index increased 0.33% and the Composite-20 city index increased 0.42% over the same period.

On an annual basis, the National index increased 5.76% above the level seen in February 2016 while the Composite-10 city index increased 5.19% and the Composite-20 city index increased 5.85% over the same period.

On a peak basis, the non-seasonally adjusted National index just surpassed the record high level seen prior the onset of the great recession rising 0.24% above the level seen in 2006 while the Composite-10 index remained -8.41% below the peak level and the Composite-20 remained -6.31% below.

S&P Core Logic Case-Shiller: September 2016

The latest release of the S&P/Case-Shiller (CSI) home price indices for September reported that the non-seasonally adjusted National index decreased from August with prices falling 0.37% while the non-seasonally adjusted Composite-10 city index decreased 0.12% and the Composite-20 city index decreased 0.13% over the same period.

On an annual basis, the National index increased 5.46% above the level seen in September 2015 while the Composite-10 city index increased 4.28% and the Composite-20 city index increased 5.08% over the same period.

On a peak basis, the non-seasonally adjusted National index just surpassed the record high level seen prior the onset of the great recession rising 0.10% above the level seen in 2006 while the Composite-10 index remained -9.07% below the peak level and the Composite-20 remained -7.14% below.

FHFA Monthly Home Prices: August 2015

Today, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) released the latest results of their monthly house price index (HPI) showing that in August, nationally, home prices increased 0.27% from July rising 5.52% above the level seen in August 2014.

The FHFA monthly HPI are formulated from home purchase information collected from mortgages that have been sold to or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Conspicuous Correlation: Retail Sales September 2013

Today, the U.S. Census Bureau released its latest nominal read of retail sales for September showing a decrease of 0.1% from August, and a gain of 3.2% on a year-over-year basis on an aggregate of all items including food, fuel and healthcare services.

Nominal "discretionary" retail sales including home furnishings, home garden and building materials, consumer electronics and department store sales also declined 0.1% from August but still increased 2.06% above the level seen in September 2012 while, adjusting for inflation, “real” discretionary retail sales declined 0.1% on the month and increased 1.05% since September 2012.

On a “nominal” basis, there had appeared to be “rough correlation” between strong home value appreciation and strong retail spending preceding the housing bust and an even stronger correlation when home values started to decline.

The following chart shows the year-over-year change to nominal discretionary retail sales and the year-over-year change to nominal the S&P/Case-Shiller Composite home price index since 1993 and since 2000.

As you can see there is, at the very least, a coincidental change to home values and consumer spending during the boom and then the bust, but as home values have continued to decline, retail spending has remained low but has not continued to consistently contract.

Looking at the chart below (click for full-screen dynamic version), adjusted for inflation (CPI for retail sales, CPI “less shelter” for S&P/Case-Shiller Composite) the “rough correlation” between the year-over-year change to the “discretionary” retail sales series and the year-over-year S&P/Case-Shiller Composite series seems now even more significant.

FHFA Monthly Home Prices: March 2013

Yesterday, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) released the latest results of their monthly house price index (HPI) showing that in March, nationally, home prices increased a notable 1.28% from February and rose 7.23% above the level seen in March 2012.

The FHFA monthly HPI are formulated from home purchase information collected from mortgages that have been sold to or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Radar Watching: February 2012

As I have noted in the past, since the home price index data provided by Radar Logic is more timely, unadjusted and un-smoothed it is particularly useful for gaining deeper visibility over our housing markets.

As for the latest trends, it’s important to note that the 25-MSA Composite is continuing to show significant year-over-year declines with prices breaking to new lows with each passing day.

The latest data shows that as of early-February, prices have declined 4.43% below the level seen in February 2011 continuing the slump through the winter months in a similar manner to past years while likely just reaching the lows of the season.

Look for future reports to indicate flat pricing as the data moves into the more active spring months leading to a new seasonal upswing as we approach early summer.

S&P/Case-Shiller: August 2011

Note... be sure to bookmark the overall S&P/Case-Shiller Dashboard or the Scary Housing Dashboard of the weakest markets for a real-time view of all the markets tracked by S&P.

Today’s release of the S&P/Case-Shiller (CSI) home price indices for August reported that the non-seasonally adjusted Composite-10 price index increased 0.24% since July while the Composite-20 index increased 0.15% over the same period with both measures continuing to decline notably since last year.

The latest CSI data clearly indicates that the price trends are experiencing a flattening into the typically less active summer and fall season and as I recently pointed out, the more timely and less distorted Radar Logic RPX data is starting to capture notable falling prices driven primarily by seasonality.

The 10-city composite index declined 3.49% as compared to August 2010 while the 20-city composite declined 3.80% over the same period.

Topping the list of regional peak decliners was Las Vegas at -59.46%, Phoenix at -55.84%, Miami at -49.83%, Tampa at -45.60% and Detroit at -42.22%.

Additionally, both of the broad composite indices show significant peak declines slumping -30.90% for the 10-city national index and -30.83% for the 20-city national index on a peak comparison basis.

To better visualize today’s results use Blytic.com to view the full release.

The following charts (click for larger version) shows the percent change to single family home prices given by the Case-Shiller Indices as compared to each metros respective price peak set between 2005 and 2007 as well as annual and monthly changes.

Additionally, in order to add some historical context to the perspective, I updated my “then and now” CSI charts that compare our current circumstances to the data seen during 90s housing decline.

To create the following annual and normalized charts I simply aligned the CSI data from the last month of positive year-over-year gains for both the current decline and the 90s housing bust and plotted the data side-by-side (click for larger version).

The “peak” chart compares the percentage change, comparing monthly CSI values to the peak value seen just prior to the first declining month all the way through the downturn and the full recovery of home prices.

U.S. vs Canadian Housing Price Mashup!: September 2010

Teranet/National Bank of Canada produces a complete line of Canadian home prices indices using the same repeat sale methodology as the S&P/Case-Shiller allowing for an interesting comparison against home prices here in the US.

Mashing-up the Teranet/NBC Composite-6 index to the S&P/CSI Composite-10 both rebased to the year 1999 provides a pretty decent “apples-apples” comparison as both the Teranet/NBC Composite-6 and S&P/CSI Composite-10 share the purpose of narrowly including just the top largest metros for their respective country.

Looking at the chart (click for full-screen dynamic version) you can see that while the Teranet/NBC index is currently showing a pretty exceptional rebound with annual percentage increases of nearly 7.86%, it still has a ways to go in order to match the pre-bust US levels.

Further, both series are showing a notable slowdown to price appreciation on a year-over-year basis.

Browse the full catalog of Canadian home price indices provided by Teranet/National Bank of Canada.

FHFA Monthly Home Prices: September 2010

Today, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) released the latest results of their monthly house price index (HPI) showing that, nationally, home prices declined 1.22% since August falling a notable 2.83% below the level seen in September 2009.

The FHFA monthly HPI are formulated from home purchase information collected from mortgages that have been sold to or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

S&P/Case-Shiller: July 2010

Today’s release of the S&P/Case-Shiller (CSI) home price indices for July 2010 (browse the dashboard) reported that the non-seasonally adjusted Composite-10 price index increased 0.79% since June further indicating that the government's housing tax gimmick worked to lift prices into the expiration.

It's important to recognize that as we continue to move away from the government's tax sham expiration, the home sales and price movement fueled by that epic monstrosity are left further and further behind.

Yet, it will be some time before the effects are completely expunged from the CSI as its methodology uses a three month rolling average of the source data and further, as BostonBubble points out, since Congress moved to extend the closing deadline for the credit until September, the CSI data may not be free of the distortion until the February 2011 release!

In any event, you can see from the latest CSI data that the price trends are starting to decelerate and, as I recently pointed out, the more timely and less distorted Radar Logic RPX data is already capturing notable price weakness nationwide.

The 10-city composite index increased 4.05% as compared to July 2009 while the 20-city composite increased 3.18% over the same period.

Topping the list of regional peak decliners was Las Vegas at -57.02%, Phoenix at -51.50%, Miami at -47.35%, Detroit at -43.98% and Tampa at -41.94%.

Additionally, both of the broad composite indices show significant peak declines slumping -28.29% for the 10-city national index and -27.90% for the 20-city national index on a peak comparison basis.

To better visualize today’s results use Blytic.com to view the full release.

Also, follow the S&P/Case-Shiller dashboard.

The following chart (click for larger version) shows the percent change to single family home prices given by the Case-Shiller Indices as compared to each metros respective price peak set between 2005 and 2007.

The following chart (click for larger version) shows the percent change to single family home prices given by the Case-Shiller Indices as on a year-over-year basis.

The following chart (click for larger version) shows the percent change to single family home prices given by the Case-Shiller Indices as on a month-to-month basis.

Additionally, in order to add some historical context to the perspective, I updated my “then and now” CSI charts that compare our current circumstances to the data seen during 90s housing decline.

To create the following annual charts I simply aligned the CSI data from the last month of positive year-over-year gains for both the current decline and the 90s housing bust and plotted the data with side-by-side columns (click for larger version).


The “peak” chart compares the percentage change, comparing monthly CSI values to the peak value seen just prior to the first declining month all the way through the downturn and the full recovery of home prices.

More Pain, Less Gain: S&P/Case-Shiller Preview for June 2010

As I demonstrated in prior posts, given their strong correlation, the home price indices provided daily by Radar Logic, averaged monthly, can effectively be used as a preview of the monthly S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices.

The current Radar Logic 25 MSA Composite data reported on residential real estate transactions (condos, multi and single family homes) that settled as late as June 25 indicates that the final expiration of the government's tax gimmick drove a second, albiet more tepid, price bounce with prices increasing slightly since May but remaining below the tax credit fueled peak reached last year.

Look for tomorrow's S&P/Case-Shiller home price report to reflect an increase of prices as the source data moves further through months affected by the tax credit activity.

IEIF France and European Property Prices: August 2010

As I have noted before, one of the most interesting and damming bits of evidence that tipped many off to the existence of a significant real estate bubble during the early 2000s was the fact that dramatically increasing property prices were occurring in most industrialized nations.

The U.S., U.K., France, Ireland, most of continental Europe, Canada, Australia and elsewhere were all simultaneously experiencing significant property booms thereby thwarting, more or less, many of the “limited supply” and “Superstar Cities” arguments that sought to justify individual regions explosive appreciation.

Today we know that this massive boom in real estate was more a function of financialization and credit availability rather than fundamentals.

The latest data from the Institut de l'Epargne Immobilière et Foncière (IEIF), a French research and analysis firm, suggests that property prices in France and Europe declined slightly during August but still remained slightly higher then levels seen a year ago.

S&P/Case-Shiller: March 2010

Today’s release of the S&P/Case-Shiller (CSI) home price indices for March 2010 (browse the dashboard) reported that the non-seasonally adjusted Composite-10 price index declined 0.38% since February further indicating that the government sponsored housing bounce seen last year continues to erode.

On a year-over-year basis though, the Composite-10 index again showed a notable increase rising 3.15% compared to March 2009.

Looking at the 1990s-era comparison charts below you can see that it took roughly 2 times longer (roughly 40 months) for our current housing decline to show its first year-over-year gain than was seen during the 1990s decline.

If the 1990s remains a good model, this would imply that we have roughly another 40 months (3.3 years) left to go until we hit the ultimate price bottom.

Further, the 1990s decline took roughly 100 months (8.3 years) to go from peak to peak (i.e. peak to trough and back to full recovery again) so again, using the 1990s as a model would imply that our current decline will run a total of roughly 200 months (16.6 years) from peak to full recovery.

This means that current holders of peak priced homes may have to wait until some time in 2023 to be made whole again.

Alternatively, if we are currently experiencing the Japanese model for residential real estate deflation… the ultimate recovery may still be many decades out.

The 10-city composite index increased 3.15% as compared to March 2009 while the 20-city composite increased 2.35% over the same period.

Topping the list of regional peak decliners was Las Vegas at -56.31%, Phoenix at -51.84%, Miami at -47.97%, Detroit at -46.75% and Tampa at -42.69%.

Additionally, both of the broad composite indices show significant peak declines slumping -30.95% for the 10-city national index and -30.59% for the 20-city national index on a peak comparison basis.

To better visualize today’s results use Blytic.com to view the full release.

Also, follow the S&P/Case-Shiller dashboard.

The following chart (click for larger version) shows the percent change to single family home prices given by the Case-Shiller Indices as compared to each metros respective price peak set between 2005 and 2007.

The following chart (click for larger version) shows the percent change to single family home prices given by the Case-Shiller Indices as on a year-over-year basis.

The following chart (click for larger version) shows the percent change to single family home prices given by the Case-Shiller Indices as on a month-to-month basis.

Additionally, in order to add some historical context to the perspective, I updated my “then and now” CSI charts that compare our current circumstances to the data seen during 90s housing decline.

To create the following annual charts I simply aligned the CSI data from the last month of positive year-over-year gains for both the current decline and the 90s housing bust and plotted the data with side-by-side columns (click for larger version).

What’s most interesting about this particular comparison is that it highlights both how young the current housing decline is and clearly shows that the latest bust has surpassed the prior bust in terms of intensity.

The “peak” chart compares the percentage change, comparing monthly CSI values to the peak value seen just prior to the first declining month all the way through the downturn and the full recovery of home prices.

Chicago Re-Busting!

Today another major metro housing market is inducted into the Re-Busting lineup of regions that have relented to the organic home price slide (as seen by the Radar Logic data) despite the generous efforts by the Feds.

Chicago must have appeared too many to have surely bottomed out early last spring after dropping over 30% from its 2007 peak and facing a massive dose of government stimulation.

Yet, short of a feeble spring bounce and reversion and an even more pitiful tax-credit expiration inspired blip in November, prices in Chicago have simply been sliding.

Today, Chicago home prices are setting new lows some 45% below the peak set in 2007 and 17.98% below the level seen just last year.

With the latest tax gimmick expiration expiring with nary squeak in prices for the area, this could be one metro market to keep an eye on for significant housing stress related macro spillover later this year.

S&P/Case-Shiller: November 2009

Today’s release of the S&P/Case-Shiller (CSI) home price indices for November 2009 reported that the non-seasonally adjusted Composite-10 price index declined slightly since October further indicating that the government sponsored housing bounce has drawn to a close.

It’s important to remember that the CSI data is lagged by two months and that today’s results represent the trend of prices paid from home sales closed between September-November.

Now that the strongest selling months have been reported, look for all remaining CSI releases until early spring to continue to indicate notable price weakness coming from typical seasonal declines as well as extra-seasonal declines as a result of reduced demand from activity that was “stimulated” forward into the summer and early fall by the tax sham.

Also, looking at the 1990s-era comparison charts below its obvious that even after the main downward thrust has been reached, the housing markets have a long tough slog ahead with the ultimate bottom likely many years out…. Or if we are currently experiencing the Japanese model… decades out.

Further, is important to remember that the 90s housing recovery played out against the backdrop of a truly unique period of growth in the wider economy fueled primarily by novel and ubiquitous technological change (cell phones, internet, personal computers, telecommunications, etc).

Today, we may not be so lucky.

The 10-city composite index declined 4.50% as compared to November 2008 while the 20-city composite declined 5.32% over the same period.

Topping the list of regional peak decliners was Las Vegas at -55.61%, Phoenix at -50.77%, Miami at -46.92%, Detroit at -42.87% and Tampa at -41.34%.

Additionally, both of the broad composite indices showed significant declines slumping -29.96% for the 10-city national index and -29.17% for the 20-city national index on a peak comparison basis.

To better visualize today’s results use Blytic.com and search for “case shiller”.

The following chart (click for larger version) shows the percent change to single family home prices given by the Case-Shiller Indices as compared to each metros respective price peak set between 2005 and 2007.

The following chart (click for larger version) shows the percent change to single family home prices given by the Case-Shiller Indices as on a year-over-year basis.

The following chart (click for larger version) shows the percent change to single family home prices given by the Case-Shiller Indices as on a month-to-month basis.

Additionally, in order to add some historical context to the perspective, I updated my “then and now” CSI charts that compare our current circumstances to the data seen during 90s housing decline.

To create the following annual charts I simply aligned the CSI data from the last month of positive year-over-year gains for both the current decline and the 90s housing bust and plotted the data with side-by-side columns (click for larger version).

What’s most interesting about this particular comparison is that it highlights both how young the current housing decline is and clearly shows that the latest bust has surpassed the prior bust in terms of intensity.

The “peak” chart compares the percentage change, comparing monthly CSI values to the peak value seen just prior to the first declining month all the way through the downturn and the full recovery of home prices.


In this way, this chart captures ALL months of the downturn from the peak to trough to peak again.

As you can see the last downturn lasted 97 months (over 8 years) peak to peak including roughly 43 months of annual price declines during the heart of the downturn.