Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey: February 2016

The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, like other district FRBs (New York, Philadelphia, Richmond and Dallas), tracks its region’s manufacturing activity by surveying a number of important indicators such as general activity, production, shipments, orders, employment and prices for raw materials and finished products.

The latest results are indicating that the assessments of manufacturing activity continued to indicate contraction falling to a level of -12 in February with ALL component measures declining on the month.

It's important to note that the current level of the Composite index is roughly equivalent to the level seen during the middle of the Great Recession seemingly indicating, yet again, that our current expansion has drawn to a close.

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey: January 2016

The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, like other district FRBs (New York, Philadelphia, Richmond and Dallas), tracks its region’s manufacturing activity by surveying a number of important indicators such as general activity, production, shipments, orders, employment and prices for raw materials and finished products.

The latest results are indicating that the assessments of manufacturing activity remained at a contraction level of -9 in January with more component measure declining than increasing while prices paid for raw materials declined to -14.

It's important to note that the current level of the Composite index is roughly equivalent to the level seen during the middle of the Great Recession seemingly indicating, yet again, that our current expansion has drawn to a close.

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey: March 2012

The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, like other district FRBs (New York, Philadelphia, Richmond and Dallas), tracks its region’s manufacturing activity by surveying a number of important indicators such as general activity, production, shipments, orders, employment and prices for raw materials and finished products.

The latest results are indicating that the manufacturing activity declined to a weak growth level of 9 in March with more component measure declining than increasing while prices paid for raw materials declined somewhat at 33.

It's important to note that although this data-set has a history that only runs as far back as mid-2001, the composite index never fell below 10 during the "recovery" that followed the tech-wreck of the early aughts.

Today, we see the composite index not only remaining depressed but occasionally turning notably negative, clearly indicating the internal weakness of our current economic expansion and possibly presenting a strong signal of recession to come.

The following chart plots the seasonally adjusted Composite index since 2001 with the solid red line indicating the threshold between expansion and contraction.

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey: December 2011

The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, like other district FRBs (New York, Philadelphia, Richmond and Dallas), tracks its region’s manufacturing activity by surveying a number of important indicators such as general activity, production, shipments, orders, employment and prices for raw materials and finished products.

The latest results are indicating that the manufacturing activity fell to a contraction level of -4 in December with virtually every component measure turning negative while prices paid for raw materials increased notably to 28.

It's important to note that although this data-set has a history that only runs as far back as mid-2001, the composite index never fell below 10 during the "recovery" that followed the tech-wreck of the early aughts.

Today, we see the composite index not only remaining depressed but actually turning notably negative, clearly indicating the internal weakness of our current economic expansion and possibly presenting a strong signal of recession to come.

The following chart plots the seasonally adjusted Composite index since 2001 with the solid red line indicating the threshold between expansion and contraction.

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey: October 2011

The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, like other district FRBs (New York, Philadelphia, Richmond and Dallas), tracks its region’s manufacturing activity by surveying a number of important indicators such as general activity, production, shipments, orders, employment and prices for raw materials and finished products.

The latest results are indicating that the manufacturing expansion remained at a near-contraction level of 8 since last month while the employee index remained flat at 12 and the prices paid for raw materials declined to 24.

The following chart plots the seasonally adjusted Composite index since 2001 with the solid red line indicating the threshold between expansion and contraction.

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey: September 2011

The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, like other district FRBs (New York, Philadelphia, Richmond and Dallas), tracks its region’s manufacturing activity by surveying a number of important indicators such as general activity, production, shipments, orders, employment and prices for raw materials and finished products.

The latest results are indicating that the manufacturing expansion remained at a near-contraction level of 6 since last month while the employee index improved slightly to 12 and the prices paid for raw materials increased to 30.

The following chart plots the seasonally adjusted Composite index since 2001 with the solid red line indicating the threshold between expansion and contraction.

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey: August 2011

The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, like other district FRBs (New York, Philadelphia, Richmond and Dallas), tracks its region’s manufacturing activity by surveying a number of important indicators such as general activity, production, shipments, orders, employment and prices for raw materials and finished products.

The latest results are indicating that the manufacturing expansion remained at a near-contraction level of 3 since last month while the employee index improved slightly to 8 and the prices paid for raw materials declined to 28.

The following chart plots the seasonally adjusted Composite index since 2001 with the solid red line indicating the threshold between expansion and contraction.

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey: July 2011

The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, like other district FRBs (New York, Philadelphia, Richmond and Dallas), tracks its region’s manufacturing activity by surveying a number of important indicators such as general activity, production, shipments, orders, employment and prices for raw materials and finished products.

The latest results are indicating that the manufacturing expansion slowed notably from last month falling to 3 from a level of 14 a month earlier while the employee index declined to 4 and the prices paid for raw materials increased to 39.

The following chart plots the seasonally adjusted Composite index since 2001 with the solid red line indicating the threshold between expansion and contraction.

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey: June 2011

The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, like other district FRBs (New York, Philadelphia, Richmond and Dallas), tracks its region’s manufacturing activity by surveying a number of important indicators such as general activity, production, shipments, orders, employment and prices for raw materials and finished products.

The latest results are indicating that the manufacturing expansion bounced back notably from last months weak reading rising to 14 from a level of 1 a month earlier while the employee index increased to 17 and the prices paid for raw materials increased to 16.

The following chart plots the seasonally adjusted Composite index since 2001 with the solid red line indicating the threshold between expansion and contraction.

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey: May 2011

The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, like other district FRBs (New York, Philadelphia, Richmond and Dallas), tracks its region’s manufacturing activity by surveying a number of important indicators such as general activity, production, shipments, orders, employment and prices for raw materials and finished products.

The latest results are indicating that the manufacturing expansion slowed significantly falling to a near contraction level of 1 from a level of 14 a month earlier while the employee index declined to 9 and the prices paid for raw materials declined to 54.

The most notable declines leading the weakness were seen in the volume and backlog of orders and volume of shipments and the production index.

It's important to note that these declines are largely consistent with similar trends seen in other regional manufacturing surveys including the Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey and the Richmond Feds Survey of Manufacturing.

The following chart plots the seasonally adjusted Composite index since 2001 with the solid red line indicating the threshold between expansion and contraction.

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey: April 2011

The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, like other district FRBs (New York, Philadelphia, Richmond and Dallas), tracks its region’s manufacturing activity by surveying a number of important indicators such as general activity, production, shipments, orders, employment and prices for raw materials and finished products.

The latest results are indicating that the manufacturing expansion slowed slightly falling to 20 from a level of 23 a month earlier while the employee index increased to 21 and the prices paid for raw materials declined to 73 from March’s decade high of 81.

The following chart plots the seasonally adjusted Composite index since 2001 with the solid red line indicating the threshold between expansion and contraction.