Existing Home Sales Report: September 2015

Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Existing Home Sales Report for September showing strong sales with total home sales rising 4.7% since August and climbing 8.8% above the level seen in September 2014.

Single family home sales also increased with sales rising 5.3% from August but and climbing 9.6% above the level seen in September 2014 while the median selling price increased 6.6% above the level seen a year earlier.

Inventory of single family homes decreased from August to 1.96 million units falling 3.0% below the level seen in September 2014 which, along with the sales pace, resulted in a monthly supply of 4.8 months.

The following charts (click for full-screen dynamic version) shows national existing single family home sales, median home prices, inventory and months of supply since 2005.

NAR Needs Congressional Investigation

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) has been one of the least scathed of the complicit actors coming out of the Great Housing Collapse.

The financial industry was decimated with millions losing their jobs and hundreds of firms and institutions going bust, the government sponsored enterprises went belly-up with equity investors taking a ferocious haircut, Angelo Mozilo, former CEO of Countrywide Financial, got a $67.5 million fine (small slap on the wrist for him and so far beat a criminal investigation) and even the once mighty Alan Greenspan was knocked down many pegs for his lack of leadership during the bubble years.

But what of the NAR?

They had their hands all over the housing game… in fact, in many ways they were the most responsible for whipping up the frenzy that drove housing parabolic during the bubble years.

From sponsoring the “flipping this and that house” shows on cable television, to consistently running newspaper, TV and radio ads designed to pump the financial benefits of home ownership, to lobbying for pro-housing and pro-homeownership initiatives through their Realtor political action committee (RPAC), to just plain old spin control of the important data points they release every month (existing home sales, pending home sales, etc.) the Realtors worked tirelessly to control as much of the housing PR as possible and their efforts were extremely effective.

But yet, what price have they paid for their notable contributions to the housing bubble and subsequent collapse that nearly brought down the entire global financial system?

Sure, tens of thousands of Realtors are out of work but frankly the agent population was way over the top during the peak years with most of the job losers having only been in the business for at most a few years prior to the collapse.

Shouldn’t the organization itself be held accountable in some way for its action during the housing mania?

Shouldn’t there be a congressional investigation into the matter?

If an investigation revealed the Realtor organization as firmly complicit in the buildup of the nation’s housing distortion, wouldn’t that work to rein-in this self interested and irresponsible private industry group?

Finally, the NAR controls some of the most important monthly housing data releases and with them the privilege of interpreting the housing trends for nation of media organizations that all but “cut and paste” the verbatim transcripts into their “articles”… shouldn’t the Census Bureau take over that important responsibility… they already release the new homes report, the housing starts and new residential construction report, the residential vacancies and homeownership report, retail sales, e-commerce sales, manufacturing and trade inventory and sales… why not the existing and pending home sales reports?

Existing Home Sales Report: August 2009

Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Existing Home Sales Report for August showing a notable decline sales activity sin July while continuing to indicate an increase on a year-over-year basis.

Existing single family home sales were up 3.4% on a year-over-year basis while the median selling price declined 12.5% over the same period.

More notably though, Condo sales jumped 10.1% on a year-over-year basis while median selling prices declining 15.7% over the same period.

It’s important to note that the “Cash for Clunkers” of housing, the “first time home buyers” tax credit, is likely driving the current jump in sales.

While the government assistance program is temporary, today’s results continue to indicate that home sales have been buffeted throughout its term which, short of being extended, expires in November.

Of course, the NAR leadership continues to wave the banner of the government’s first-time homebuyer tax handout … even if these housing welfare payments are poorly targeted and absurdly expensive … Realtors want commission at all costs… even if their commissions comes from your salary... as chief economist Lawrence Yun puts it:

“Home sales retrenched from a very strong improvement in July but continue to be much higher than before the stimulus. The first-time buyer tax credit is having the intended impact of bringing buyers into the market, allowing them to take advantage of very favorable affordability conditions … Some of the give-back in closed sales appears to result from rising numbers of contracts entering the system, with some fallouts and a backlog contributing to a longer closing process, but the decline demonstrates we can’t take a housing rebound for granted.”

The following (click for larger versions) are charts showing sales for single family homes, plotted monthly, for 2006, 2007, 2008 and 2009 as well as national existing home inventory and month supply.







Below is a chart consolidating all the year-over-year changes reported by NAR in their most recent report.

Pending Home Sales: February 2009

Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Pending Home Sales Report for February showing a 1.4% year-over-year decline in pending home sales nationally and a surprising 1.7% year-over-year decline in pending sales seen in the heavily foreclosure laden markets of the west region.

Meanwhile, the NARs chief economist Lawrence Yun continues to spin his tales of improved housing affordability while embracing government funded handouts for his industry.

“Pending home sales have a way to go for there to be a meaningful increase, but recent increases in shopping activity are hopeful indicators that we’ll see additional sales gains … More buyers are getting into the market to take advantage of stimulus incentives and much improved housing affordability conditions, but it will take a few months before we could see this turn up in measurable sales contract activity.”

The following chart shows the national pending homes sales index since 2005 compared monthly. Notice that each year, the months value is decreasing fairly consistently (click for larger version).

The following chart shows the national pending home sales index along with the percent change on a year-over-year basis as well as the percent change from the peak set in 2005 (click for larger version).

Look at February’s seasonally adjusted pending home sales results and draw your own conclusion:

• Nationally the index declined 1.4% as compared to February 2008.
• The Northeast region declined 11.2% as compared to February 2008.
• The Midwest region increased 3.4% as compared to February 2008.
• The South region declined 0.1% as compared to February 2008.
• The West region declined 1.7% as compared to February 2008.

Existing Home Sales Report: February 2009

Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Existing Home Sales Report for February which continued to indicate that home sales, despite the significant slide to median selling prices fueling speculative sales of distressed properties in the western region, are continuing to fall.

Existing single family home sales were down 6.7% on a year-over-year basis while the median selling price declined a dramatic 15% over the same period.

The NAR leadership continues their shameless spin with their chief economist Lawrence Yun assuring homeowners of “traditional” homes that despite today’s reported 15% median selling price decline, home values have actually not fallen for them:

“Given the downward distortion in price comparisons due to distressed sales, it’s important for owners to keep in mind that this doesn’t equate to a similar loss of value for traditional homes in good condition,”

The following (click for larger versions) are charts showing sales for single family homes, plotted monthly, for 2006, 2007, 2008 and 2009 as well as national existing home inventory and month supply.







Below is a chart consolidating all the year-over-year changes reported by NAR in their most recent report.

Existing Home Sales Report: January 2009

Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Existing Home Sales Report for January which firmly indicates a new leg down in home sales despite the significant slide to median selling prices fueling speculative sales in the western region.

The report continues to show stunning declines to the median selling price for both single family homes and condos across virtually every region.

The NAR leadership continues their shameless spin with their chief economist Lawrence Yun suggesting that buyers were sidelined by all the “stimulus package discussion” and that the housing markets will soon benefit from the government handouts:

“Given so much stimulus package discussion in January, some would-be buyers simply sat out for clarity and certainty on the nature of housing stimulus, … The housing market will soon get a lift from very favorable buying conditions – not only from improved affordability, but also from the stimulus of an $8,000 first-time home buyer tax credit, and higher conforming loan limits that will allow more people to tap into 50-year low mortgage rates.”

The following (click for larger versions) are charts showing sales for single family homes, plotted monthly, for 2006, 2007, 2008 and 2009 as well as national existing home inventory and month supply.







Below is a chart consolidating all the year-over-year changes reported by NAR in their most recent report.

NARcasting The Future: February 2009

This week, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) provided their latest estimate of annual existing home sales for 2009 again revising down their 2009 total year sales forecast to 5.11 million units.

As usual, the latest forecast comes with another dose of truly ridiculous spin.

In an effort to put their absurd bias into perspective I compiled all their existing home sales forecasts for 2007, 2008 and now 2009 into a chart along with a list of prominent quotes supplied with each forecast.

12/11/2006 Prediction: 6.40 million units.
Lereah "Most of the correction in home prices is behind us."

1/10/2007 Prediction: 6.42 million units.
Lereah "The good news is that the steady improvement in sales will support price appreciation moving forward."

2/7/2007 Prediction: 6.44 million units.
Lereah "After reaching what appears to be the bottom in the fourth quarter of 2006, we expect existing-home sales to gradually rise all this year and well into 2008."

3/13/2007 Prediction: 6.42 million units.
Lereah "Although existing-home sales will be marginally reduced due to subprime lending restrictions, they should be gradually rising this year and next."

4/11/2007 Prediction: 6.34 million units.
Lereah "Tighter lending standards will dampen home sales a bit, but by less than a couple of percentage points from initial projections."

4/30/2007 Lereah Leaves NAR for Move.com

5/9/2007 Prediction: 6.29 million units.
Yun "Housing activity this year will be somewhat lower than in earlier forecasts."

6/6/2007 Prediction: 6.18 million units.
Yun "Home sales will probably fluctuate in a narrow range in the short run, but gradually trend upward with improving activity by the end of the year."

7/11/2007 Prediction: 6.11 million units.
Yun "Home prices are expected to recover in 2008 with existing-home sales picking up late this year."

8/8/2007 Prediction: 6.04 million units.
Yun “With the population growing, the demand for homes isn’t going away – it’s just being delayed.”

9/11/2007 Prediction: 5.92 million units.
Yun “Patient buyers in most areas who do their homework will recognize that housing remains a good long-term investment.”

10/10/2007 Prediction: 5.78 million units.
Yun "The speculative excesses have been removed from the market and home sales are returning to fundamentally healthy levels, while prices remain near record highs, reflecting favorable mortgage rates and positive job gains."

11/13/2007 Prediction: 5.5 million units.
Yun "In some ways, the extended real estate boom from 2001 to 2005 created unrealistic expectations that housing is a short-term high-yield investment… 2007 will be the fifth best year for housing on record"

12/10/2007 Prediction: 5.67 million units in 2007, 5.7 million units in 2008.
Yun "The broad trend over the coming year will be a gradual rise in existing-home sales, but because sales are exceptionally low in the final months of 2007, total sales for 2008 will be only modestly higher than 2007."

ACTUAL: 5.652 million existing units sold in 2007

01/08/2008 Prediction: 5.66 million units in 2007, 5.7 million units in 2008.
Yun "A meaningful recovery in existing-home sales could occur as early as this spring, or it may be further delayed toward late 2008."

02/07/2008 Prediction: 5.38 million units full year.
Yun "Where builders have cut construction sharply, and in most areas with improving affordability conditions, we’ll generally see moderately higher home prices."

03/06/2008 Prediction: 5.38 million units full year.
Yun "Significant price declines in some local markets have sharply and quickly improved local affordability conditions, and are inducing buyers to return to the marketplace"

04/08/2008 Prediction: 5.39 million units full year.
Yun "Exceptionally weak home sales related to jumbo loans problems will depress home prices in the first half of the year, but steady liquidity improvements in the conforming jumbo-loan market will help prices recover in the second half of the year"

05/08/2008 Prediction: 5.39 million units full year.
Yun "Although more than half of local markets are expected to see price growth this year, the aggregate existing-home price will decline 2.4 percent in 2008, driven by a relatively few markets that are very oversupplied"

06/09/2008 Prediction 5.4 million units full year.
Yun "We’re seeing healthy price gains in moderately priced areas like Erie, Pa., and Corpus Christi, Texas, and double-digit gains in others"

07/08/2008 Prediction 5.31 million units full year.
Yun "Interestingly, there have been reports of multiple bidding after the large price cuts, so it is possible that most of the price declines have already occurred in those markets."

08/08/2008 Prediction 5.51 million units full year.
Gaylord "buyers [will] get into the market to take advantage of the unprecedented drop in home prices in many areas, as well as a wide selection of inventory, to make an investment in their future,"

09/09/2008 Prediction 5.01 million units full year.
Yun "Nationally, home sales are stable now but are expected to increase in coming quarters."

10/08/2008 Prediction 5.04 million units full year.
Yun "What we’re seeing is the momentum of people taking advantage of low home prices…"

11/07/2008 Prediction 5.02 million units full year.
Yun "…we’re still in a broad period of stabilization"

12/09/2008 Prediction 4.96 million units full year.
Yun "Given the critical role of housing in an economic recovery, we’re confident sufficient (government) stimulus will be offered to bring more buyers to the market,"

ACTUAL: 4.912 million existing units sold in 2008

1/06/2009 Prediction 4.90 million units in 2008, 5.224 million units 2009.
Yun "With a proper real-estate focused (government) stimulus measure, home sales could rise more than expected, by more than 10 percent..."

2/02/2009 Prediction 4.912 million units in 2008, 5.116 million units 2009.
Yun "Forecasting is a hazardous sport at times. With so many pieces of the puzzle now moving in opposite directions, the crystal ball reading has become even cloudier."

Pending Home Sales: December 2008

Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Pending Home Sales Report for December showing a 2.1% year-over-year gain in pending home sales nationally primarily driven by a 17.5% increase in pending sales seen in the heavily foreclosure laden markets of the west region.

Meanwhile, the NAR leadership has redoubled their efforts in groveling for TARP money with NAR president Charles McMillan suggesting that more needs to be done by the federal government to support home prices.

“We can’t take our eye off the need to stimulate housing, which can set the foundation for an economic recovery, … Last week’s actions in the House to eliminate the repayment feature on the first-time home buyer tax credit, and to raise mortgage loan limits, are helpful. However, we need to take additional steps to meaningfully draw down inventory and stabilize home prices”

The following chart shows the national pending homes sales index since 2005 compared monthly. Notice that each year, the months value is decreasing fairly consistently (click for larger version).

The following chart shows the national pending home sales index along with the percent change on a year-over-year basis as well as the percent change from the peak set in 2005 (click for larger version).

Note that in the above charts, I had to use the Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) data series as NAR changed the methodology for their Seasonally Adjusted (SA) series a while back and never republished the numbers.

Look at December’s seasonally adjusted pending home sales results and draw your own conclusion:

• Nationally the index increased 2.1% as compared to December 2007.
• The Northeast region declined 14.5% as compared to December 2007.
• The Midwest region declined 1.2% as compared to December 2007.
• The South region increased 1.6% as compared to December 2007.
• The West region increased 17.5% as compared to December 2007.

Ticking Time Bomb?: Fannie Mae Monthly Summary December 2008

Decades from now the summer of 2008 will likely be remembered to mark the turning point where legislative blundering took an otherwise serious financial crisis and molested it into an epic financial collapse.

By fully assuming the liabilities of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two colossal and corrupt (and conduit of corruptness funneling junk Countrywide Financial loans onto the implied balance sheet of the federal government) government sponsored enterprises, the federal government, led by Treasury Secretary Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, has thrust taxpayers into an abyss of insolvency with one mighty shove.

Given the sheer size of these government sponsored companies, with loan guarantee obligations recently estimated by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President William Poole of totaling $4.47 Trillion (That’s TRILLION with a capital T… for perspective ALL U.S. government debt held by the public totals roughly $4.87 Trillion) this legislative reversal making certain the “implied” government guarantee is reckless to say the least.

The following chart (click for larger) shows what Fannie Mae terms the count of “Seriously Delinquent” loans as a percentage of all loans on their books.

It’s important to understand that Fannie Mae does NOT segregate foreclosures from delinquent loans when reporting these numbers and that should they report the delinquent results as a percentage of the unpaid principle balance, things might likely look a lot worse.

Finally, the following chart (click for larger) shows the relative movements of Fannie Mae’s credit and non-credit enhanced (insured and non-insured) “Seriously Delinquent” loans.

Crashachusetts Existing Home Sales and Prices: December 2008

Today, the Massachusetts Association of Realtors (MAR) released their Existing Home Sales Report for December showing that single family home sales increased slightly at 3.2% on a year-over-year basis while condo sales declined 14.8% over the same period continuing to indicate that a new leg of the housing downturn has commenced.

Further, the single family median home value declined a whopping 14.9% on a year-over-year basis to $275,000 while condo median prices dropped a significant 14.8% to $230,000.

Clearly, the impact of the recent stock market crash and ongoing economic crisis is bearing down on both consumer sentiment and, more fundamentally, credit availability resulting in a significant pullback in spending on homes and other costly purchases.

It’s perfectly clear now that home sellers that choose to wait out the “down market” did so in vain as the 2008 selling season draws to a close likely the last opportunity to sell any residential property at anywhere near the prices set in the peak boom years.

With confidence depressed and eroding and sales volumes this low Boston area home prices have nowhere left to go but down.

Of course, the new Massachusetts Association of Realtor president Gary Rogers puts a more optimistic spin on things while simultaneously looking to the Feds for an industry handout:

“Prices have adjusted to the point that buyers are seeing real value and taking the opportunity to get back into the market and that is a necessary first step to eventually turning things around, … Last year was hard and we are hopeful that any new stimulus package introduced by President Obama and Congress gets credit flowing to worthy borrowers so they can take advantage of the extremely low interest rates and more affordable prices.”

MAR reports that in December, single family home sales increased slightly at 3.2% as compared to December 2007 with a 16.0% decline in inventory translating to 9.6 months of supply and a median selling price decline of 14.9% while condo sales dropped 14.8% with an 24% decline in inventory translating to 11.3 months of supply and a median selling price decline of 14.8%.


As in months past, be on the lookout for the inflation adjusted charts produced by BostonBubble.com for an even more accurate "real" view of the current home price movement.

December’s key MAR statistics:

• Single family sales increased 3.2% as compared to December 2007
• Single family median selling price decreased 14.9% as compared to December 2007
• Condo sales declined 14.8% as compared to December 2007
• Condo median price declined 14.8% as compared to December 2007
• The number of months supply of single family homes stands at 9.6 months.
• The number of months supply of condos stands at 11.3 months.
• The average “days on market” for single family homes stands at 140 days.
• The average “days on market” for condos stands at 142 days.

Pending Home Sales: November 2008

Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Pending Home Sales Report for November showing a 5.3% year-over-year decline in pending home sales nationally firmly indicating that the widespread collapse of consumer confidence that resulted from the economic turmoil experienced in September thru November has worked to drive home sales back into a sustained decline.

It’s important to note that sales in the West region have deteriorated significantly since September falling another 2.4% on a month-to-month basis likely as a result of investors pulling back on purchases of foreclosed homes as it has become increasingly obvious that a bottom has not yet been reached in those markets and that prices are, in fact, headed lower.

As usual, NAR Senior Economist Laurence Yun continues his government bailout groveling while dishing up a whopping portion of self-interested spin suggesting that 2009 may bring a 10% increase in home sales.

“With a proper real-estate focused stimulus measure, home sales could rise more than expected, by more than 10 percent to 5.5 million in 2009, and easily begin to stabilize home prices in many parts of the country. Stable home prices will, in turn, lessen foreclosure pressures and lay the foundations for a solid economic recovery as the nation’s 75 million homeowners regain confidence,”

The following chart shows the national pending homes sales index since 2005 compared monthly. Notice that each year, the months value is decreasing fairly consistently (click for larger version).

The following chart shows the national pending home sales index along with the percent change on a year-over-year basis as well as the percent change from the peak set in 2005 (click for larger version).

Note that in the above charts, I had to use the Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) data series as NAR changed the methodology for their Seasonally Adjusted (SA) series a while back and never republished the numbers.

Look at November’s seasonally adjusted pending home sales results and draw your own conclusion:

• Nationally the index declines 5.3% as compared to November 2007.
• The Northeast region declined 14.6% as compared to November 2007.
• The Midwest region declined 10.1% as compared to November 2007.
• The South region declined 12.7% as compared to November 2007.
• The West region increased 19.3% as compared to November 2007.

NARcasting The Future: December 2008

Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) provided their latest estimate of annual existing home sales for 2008 again revising down their total year sales forecast to 4.96 million units.

As usual, the latest forecast comes with another dose of truly ridiculous spin.

In an effort to put their absurd bias into perspective I compiled all their existing home sales forecasts for 2007 and now 2008 into a chart along with a list of prominent quotes supplied with each forecast.

12/11/2006 Prediction: 6.40 million units.
Lereah "Most of the correction in home prices is behind us."

1/10/2007 Prediction: 6.42 million units.
Lereah "The good news is that the steady improvement in sales will support price appreciation moving forward."

2/7/2007 Prediction: 6.44 million units.
Lereah "After reaching what appears to be the bottom in the fourth quarter of 2006, we expect existing-home sales to gradually rise all this year and well into 2008."

3/13/2007 Prediction: 6.42 million units.
Lereah "Although existing-home sales will be marginally reduced due to subprime lending restrictions, they should be gradually rising this year and next."

4/11/2007 Prediction: 6.34 million units.
Lereah "Tighter lending standards will dampen home sales a bit, but by less than a couple of percentage points from initial projections."

4/30/2007
Lereah Leaves NAR for Move.com

5/9/2007 Prediction: 6.29 million units.
Yun "Housing activity this year will be somewhat lower than in earlier forecasts."

6/6/2007 Prediction: 6.18 million units.
Yun "Home sales will probably fluctuate in a narrow range in the short run, but gradually trend upward with improving activity by the end of the year."

7/11/2007 Prediction: 6.11 million units.
Yun "Home prices are expected to recover in 2008 with existing-home sales picking up late this year."

8/8/2007 Prediction: 6.04 million units.
Yun “With the population growing, the demand for homes isn’t going away – it’s just being delayed.”

9/11/2007 Prediction: 5.92 million units.
Yun “Patient buyers in most areas who do their homework will recognize that housing remains a good long-term investment.”

10/10/2007 Prediction: 5.78 million units.
Yun "The speculative excesses have been removed from the market and home sales are returning to fundamentally healthy levels, while prices remain near record highs, reflecting favorable mortgage rates and positive job gains."

11/13/2007 Prediction: 5.5 million units.
Yun "In some ways, the extended real estate boom from 2001 to 2005 created unrealistic expectations that housing is a short-term high-yield investment… 2007 will be the fifth best year for housing on record"

12/10/2007 Prediction: 5.67 million units in 2007, 5.7 million units in 2008.
Yun "The broad trend over the coming year will be a gradual rise in existing-home sales, but because sales are exceptionally low in the final months of 2007, total sales for 2008 will be only modestly higher than 2007."

ACTUAL: 5.652 million existing units sold in 2007

01/08/2008 Prediction: 5.66 million units in 2007, 5.7 million units in 2008.
Yun "A meaningful recovery in existing-home sales could occur as early as this spring, or it may be further delayed toward late 2008."

02/07/2008 Prediction: 5.38 million units full year.
Yun "Where builders have cut construction sharply, and in most areas with improving affordability conditions, we’ll generally see moderately higher home prices."

03/06/2008 Prediction: 5.38 million units full year.
Yun "Significant price declines in some local markets have sharply and quickly improved local affordability conditions, and are inducing buyers to return to the marketplace"

04/08/2008 Prediction: 5.39 million units full year.
Yun "Exceptionally weak home sales related to jumbo loans problems will depress home prices in the first half of the year, but steady liquidity improvements in the conforming jumbo-loan market will help prices recover in the second half of the year"

05/08/2008 Prediction: 5.39 million units full year.
Yun "Although more than half of local markets are expected to see price growth this year, the aggregate existing-home price will decline 2.4 percent in 2008, driven by a relatively few markets that are very oversupplied"

06/09/2008 Prediction 5.4 million units full year.
Yun "We’re seeing healthy price gains in moderately priced areas like Erie, Pa., and Corpus Christi, Texas, and double-digit gains in others"

07/08/2008 Prediction 5.31 million units full year.
Yun "Interestingly, there have been reports of multiple bidding after the large price cuts, so it is possible that most of the price declines have already occurred in those markets."

08/08/2008 Prediction 5.51 million units full year.
Gaylord "buyers [will] get into the market to take advantage of the unprecedented drop in home prices in many areas, as well as a wide selection of inventory, to make an investment in their future,"

09/09/2008 Prediction 5.01 million units full year.
Yun "Nationally, home sales are stable now but are expected to increase in coming quarters."

10/08/2008 Prediction 5.04 million units full year.
Yun "What we’re seeing is the momentum of people taking advantage of low home prices…"

11/07/2008 Prediction 5.02 million units full year.
Yun "…we’re still in a broad period of stabilization"

12/09/2008 Prediction 4.96 million units full year.
Yun "Given the critical role of housing in an economic recovery, we’re confident sufficient (government) stimulus will be offered to bring more buyers to the market,"