Reading Rates: MBA Application Survey – August 12 2015

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages as well as the volume of both purchase and refinance applications.

The purchase application index has been highlighted as a particularly important data series as it very broadly captures the demand side of residential real estate for both new and existing home purchases.

The latest data is showing that the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage (from FHA and conforming GSE data) decreased 1 basis point to 4.05% since last week while the purchase application volume decreased 4% and the refinance application volume increased 3% over the same period.

The following chart shows the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages since 2006 as well as the purchase, refinance and composite loan volumes (click for larger dynamic full-screen version).

Construction Spending: June 2015

Today, the U.S. Census Bureau released their latest read of construction spending showing weakening results for June with total private construction spending, single family construction spending and non-residential construction spending all declining over the month.

On a month-to-month basis, total residential spending declined 0.5% from May but remained 13.7% above the level seen in June 2014 and remained well below the peak level seen in 2006.

Single family construction spending declined 0.3% from May and rose 12.8% since June 2014 but remaining well below it's peak level reached in 2006.

Non-residential construction spending declined 1.3% from May and rose 14.6% above the level seen in June 2014 but remaining a well below the peak level reached in October 2008.

The following charts (click for larger dynamic versions) show private residential construction spending, private residential single family construction spending and private non-residential construction spending broken out and plotted since 1993 along with the year-over-year, month-to-month and peak percent change to each since 1994 and 2000 – 2005.