The Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey: March 2013

The March release of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey (BOS) indicated an improvement of the regions manufacturing activity with the current activity index climbing to a weak expansionary level of 2 while assessments the future activity remained flat at level of 32.5.

The following chart shows the current and future activity indexes both with their corresponding 3-month moving averages. The red line marks the threshold between contraction and expansion for these diffusion indexes.

Philadelphia Feeling: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey September 2011

The latest release of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey (BOS) for September continued to indicate dramatic weakness in the regions manufacturing activity with the current activity index remaining at a notable contraction level of -17.5 while the future activity index improved to a level of 21.4.

The current activity index along with most of the other "current" data points (new orders, unfilled orders, delivery time and inventories) are now indicating significant recessionary weakness in manufacturing activity with the size and breadth of the latest pullback clearly demanding that closer scrutiny be paid to these series in future releases.

The following chart shows the current and future activity indexes both with their corresponding 3-month moving averages. The red line marks the threshold between contraction and expansion for these diffusion indexes.

Philadelphia Feeling: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey August 2011

The latest release of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey (BOS) for August indicated dramatic weakness in the regions manufacturing activity with the current activity index plunging to a notable contraction level of -30.7 while the future activity index declined to a level of 1.4.

The current activity index along with most of the other "current" data points (new orders, unfilled orders, delivery time and inventories) are now indicating significant recessionary weakness in manufacturing activity with the size and breadth of the latest pullback clearly demanding that closer scrutiny be paid to these series in future releases.

The following chart shows the current and future activity indexes both with their corresponding 3-month moving averages. The red line marks the threshold between contraction and expansion for these diffusion indexes.

Philadelphia Feeling: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey July 2011

The latest release of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey (BOS) for July indicated continued weakness in the regions manufacturing activity with the current activity index remaining at a near contraction level of 3.2 while the future activity index increased to a level of 23.7.

The current activity index along with many of the other current data points (new orders, unfilled orders, delivery time and inventories) are now indicating notable weakness in manufacturing activity with the size and breadth of the latest pullback clearly demanding that closer scrutiny be paid to these series in future releases.

The following chart shows the current and future activity indexes both with their corresponding 3-month moving averages. The red line marks the threshold between contraction and expansion for these diffusion indexes.

Philadelphia Feeling: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey June 2011

The latest release of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey (BOS) for June indicated a continued notable pullback in the regions manufacturing activity with the current activity index plunging to a level of -7.7 while the future activity index also declined to a level of 2.5.

The current activity index along with four additional current data points (new orders, unfilled orders, delivery time and inventories) are now indicating contraction of manufacturing activity with the size and breadth of the latest pullback clearly demanding that closer scrutiny be paid to these series in future releases.

The following chart shows the current and future activity indexes both with their corresponding 3-month moving averages. The red line marks the threshold between contraction and expansion for these diffusion indexes.

Philadelphia Feeling: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey May 2011

The latest release of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey (BOS) for May indicated a notable pullback in the regions manufacturing activity with the current activity index plunging to a level of 3.9 while the future activity index also declined to a level of 16.6.

Both indices are still indicating expansion though the size of the latest pullback clearly demands that closer attention be paid to these series in future releases.

The following chart shows the current and future activity indexes both with their corresponding 3-month moving averages. The red line marks the threshold between contraction and expansion for these diffusion indexes.

Philadelphia Feeling: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey April 2011

The latest release of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey (BOS) for April indicated a pullback in the regions manufacturing activity with the current activity index declining notably to a level of 18.50 while the future activity index also declined to a level of 33.6.

Both indices are still indicating expansion though the size of the latest pullback clearly demands that closer attention be paid to these series in future releases.

The following chart shows the current and future activity indexes both with their corresponding 3-month moving averages. The red line marks the threshold between contraction and expansion for these diffusion indexes.

Philadelphia Feeling: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey March 2011

The latest release of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey (BOS) for March indicated strong growth in the regions manufacturing activity with the current activity index increasing to a level of 43.4 while the future activity index improved notably jumping to a level of 63.

In the first two charts, the bright green band indicates contraction (0 to -100) while any value above that band indicates expansion.

Philadelphia Feeling: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey October 2010

The latest release of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey (BOS) for October indicated weak growth in the regions manufacturing activity with the current activity index at a level of 1.

The future activity index improved notably jumping to a level of 41 though still remaining well below the level of 52 seen earlier in the year.

In the first two charts, the bright green band indicates contraction (0 to -100) while any value above that band indicates expansion.

Philadelphia Feeling: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey September 2010

The latest release of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey (BOS) for September indicated a continued sign of contraction in the regions manufacturing activity with the current activity index at a level of -0.7.

The future activity index improved slightly climbing to a level of 26.3 though still remaining well below the level of 52 seen earlier in the year.

In the first two charts, the bright green band indicates contraction (0 to -100) while any value above that band indicates expansion.

Philadelphia Feeling: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey August 2010

The latest release of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey (BOS) for August indicated the first sign of contraction in the regions manufacturing activity seen in over a year with the current activity index falling to a level of -7.7.

Further, the future activity index also indicates substantial weakening in recent months falling to a level of 19.6 from a level of 52 earlier in the year.

In the first two charts, the bright green band indicates contraction (0 to -100) while any value above that band indicates expansion.

Philadelphia Feeling: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey May 2010

Today, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia released the results of their Business Outlook Survey (BOS) for May showing a slight improvement in manufacturing activity for the Philadelphia region with the current activity index increasing to 21.4.

Further, although the future activity index has topped out a bit in recent months, at a reading of 37 it’s still well within expansion territory.

In the first two charts, the bright yellow band indicates contraction (0 to -100) while any value above that band indicates expansion.

Philadelphia Feeling: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey February 2010

Today, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia released the results of their Business Outlook Survey (BOS) for February showing a slight improvement in manufacturing activity for the Philadelphia region with the current activity index increasing to 17.6.

Further, although the future activity index has trended down a bit in recent months, at a reading of 38.5 it’s still well within expansion territory.

As was noted earlier this week, the Empire State Manufacturing Index, the BOS Current Activity Index and the ISM’s PMI Composite Manufacturing Index correlate well and taken together confirm that improvement in manufacturing activity is currently underway.

In the first two charts, the bright yellow band indicates contraction (0 to -100) while any value above that band indicates expansion.

Philadelphia Feeling: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey December 2009

Today, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia released the results of their Business Outlook Survey for November showing a continued increase in manufacturing activity with the current activity index still indicating expansion with a reading of 20.4.

It's important to note that although the "future activity" reading continues to indicate expansion with a reading of 24.4, today's results show the fourth consecutive decline indicating that assessments of future manufacturing activity have weakened notably since August.


Also, today’s results show that any recent parallel to the stagflationary eras of the 70s and early 80 which had given way to a stronger stag-deflationary force, and then mildly inflationary inline with the government stimulus now appears to be, at least temporarily, looking marginally double-dipish as latest release shows predictions on future employment flattening.

The following chart shows the latest results of the “current new orders” “current prices paid” and “future employment” components (click for larger versions).

The following chart (click for larger) shows these measures during the last stagflationary era seen between 1976 – 1980. Notice the clear divergence of rising prices and falling growth.

Philadelphia Feeling: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey November 2009

Today, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia released the results of their Business Outlook Survey for November showing a slight increase in manufacturing activity with the current activity index still indicating expansion with a reading of 16.7.


Also, today’s results show that any recent parallel to the stagflationary eras of the 70s and early 80 which had given way to a stronger stag-deflationary force, and then mildly inflationary inline with the government stimulus now appears to be, at least temporarily, looking marginally double-dipish as latest release shows predictions on future employment flattening.

The following chart shows the latest results of the “current new orders” “current prices paid” and “future employment” components (click for larger versions).

The following chart (click for larger) shows these measures during the last stagflationary era seen between 1976 – 1980. Notice the clear divergence of rising prices and falling growth.

Philadelphia Feeling: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey October 2009

Today, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia released the results of their Business Outlook Survey for October showing a slight decline in manufacturing activity with the current activity index still indicating expansion with a reading of 11.5.


Also, today’s results show that any recent parallel to the stagflationary eras of the 70s and early 80 which had given way to a stronger stag-deflationary force now appear to be, at least temporarily, looking marginally inflationary as latest release shows predictions on future employment as well as current employment and prices paid all appear to have taken a turn up.

The following chart shows the latest results of the “current new orders” “current prices paid” and “future employment” components (click for larger versions).

The following chart (click for larger) shows these measures during the last stagflationary era seen between 1976 – 1980. Notice the clear divergence of rising prices and falling growth.

Philadelphia Feeling: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey September 2009

Today, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia released the results of their Business Outlook Survey for September showing a jump in manufacturing activity with the current activity index indicating expansion at 14.1.


Also, today’s results show that any recent parallel to the stagflationary eras of the 70s and early 80 which had given way to a stronger stag-deflationary force now appear to be, at least temporarily, looking marginally inflationary as latest release shows predictions on future employment as well as current employment and prices paid all appear to have taken a turn up.

The following chart shows the latest results of the “current new orders” “current prices paid” and “future employment” components (click for larger versions).

The following chart (click for larger) shows these measures during the last stagflationary era seen between 1976 – 1980. Notice the clear divergence of rising prices and falling growth.