The Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey: March 2016

The March release of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey (BOS) indicated improvement in the regions manufacturing activity with the current activity index increasing to a level of 12.4 while assessments the future activity also improved to a level of 28.8.

The above chart shows the current and future activity indexes both with their corresponding 3-month moving averages. The red line marks the threshold between contraction and expansion for these diffusion indexes.

The Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey: February 2016

The February release of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey (BOS) indicated continued weakness in the regions manufacturing activity with the current activity index improving but still remaining at a weak level of -2.8 while assessments the future activity weakened, falling to a level of 17.3.

The above chart shows the current and future activity indexes both with their corresponding 3-month moving averages. The red line marks the threshold between contraction and expansion for these diffusion indexes.

The Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey: January 2016

The January release of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey (BOS) indicated continued weakness in the regions manufacturing activity with the current activity index improving but still remaining at a weak level of -3.5 while assessments the future activity weakened significantly, falling to a level of 19.1.

The above chart shows the current and future activity indexes both with their corresponding 3-month moving averages. The red line marks the threshold between contraction and expansion for these diffusion indexes.

The Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey: December 2015

The December release of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey (BOS) indicated a notable pullback in the regions manufacturing activity with the current activity index falling to a weak level of -10.2 while assessments the future activity also worsened to a level of 24.1.

The above chart shows the current and future activity indexes both with their corresponding 3-month moving averages. The red line marks the threshold between contraction and expansion for these diffusion indexes.

The Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey: April 2013

The March release of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey (BOS) indicated a slight worsening of the regions manufacturing activity with the current activity index falling to a weak expansionary level of 1.3 while assessments the future activity plunged to a level of 19.5.

The following chart shows the current and future activity indexes both with their corresponding 3-month moving averages. The red line marks the threshold between contraction and expansion for these diffusion indexes.

The Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey: February 2013

The February release of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey (BOS) indicated an worsening of the regions manufacturing activity with the current activity index declining to a contraction level of -12.5 while assessments the future activity index increased to a level of 32.1.

The following chart shows the current and future activity indexes both with their corresponding 3-month moving averages. The red line marks the threshold between contraction and expansion for these diffusion indexes.

The Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey: January 2013

The January release of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey (BOS) indicated an worsening of the regions manufacturing activity with the current activity index declining to a contraction level of -5.8 while assessments the future activity index increased to a level of 29.2.

The following chart shows the current and future activity indexes both with their corresponding 3-month moving averages. The red line marks the threshold between contraction and expansion for these diffusion indexes.

The Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey: September 2012

The September release of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey (BOS) indicated an improvement of the regions manufacturing activity with the current activity index rising to a contraction level of -1.9 while assessments the future activity index increased notably to a level of 41.2.

The following chart shows the current and future activity indexes both with their corresponding 3-month moving averages. The red line marks the threshold between contraction and expansion for these diffusion indexes.

The Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey: April 2012

Today's release of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey (BOS) for April indicated a slowing of the regions manufacturing activity with the current activity index declining to a level of 8.5 while assessments the future activity index increased slightly to a level of 33.8.

The following chart shows the current and future activity indexes both with their corresponding 3-month moving averages. The red line marks the threshold between contraction and expansion for these diffusion indexes.

The Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey: March 2012

Today's release of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey (BOS) for March indicated a improvement in the regions manufacturing activity with the current activity index climbing to a level of 12.5 while the future activity index declined slightly to a level of 32.9.

The following chart shows the current and future activity indexes both with their corresponding 3-month moving averages. The red line marks the threshold between contraction and expansion for these diffusion indexes.

Philadelphia Feeling: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey December 2011

The latest release of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey (BOS) for December indicated a notable improvement in the regions manufacturing activity with the current activity index climbing to a level of 10.3 while the future activity index improved to a level of 44.1.

The following chart shows the current and future activity indexes both with their corresponding 3-month moving averages. The red line marks the threshold between contraction and expansion for these diffusion indexes.

Philadelphia Feeling: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey November 2011

The latest release of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey (BOS) for November indicated a weakening in the regions manufacturing activity with the current activity index falling to a level of 3.6 while the future activity index improved to a level of 41.9.

While about half the component measures turned down in November, more data is needed in order to get a more complete sense of how the economy is trending.

The following chart shows the current and future activity indexes both with their corresponding 3-month moving averages. The red line marks the threshold between contraction and expansion for these diffusion indexes.

Philadelphia Feeling: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey October 2011

The latest release of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey (BOS) for October indicated a notable improvement in the regions manufacturing activity with the current activity index jumping to a level of 8.7 while the future activity index also improved to a level of 27.2.

While most component measures turned around in October, it's important to note that most measures still signal notable weakness for manufacturing activity... clearly, more data is needed in order to get a more complete sense of how the economy is trending.

The following chart shows the current and future activity indexes both with their corresponding 3-month moving averages. The red line marks the threshold between contraction and expansion for these diffusion indexes.

Philadelphia Feeling: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey September 2011

The latest release of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey (BOS) for September continued to indicate dramatic weakness in the regions manufacturing activity with the current activity index remaining at a notable contraction level of -17.5 while the future activity index improved to a level of 21.4.

The current activity index along with most of the other "current" data points (new orders, unfilled orders, delivery time and inventories) are now indicating significant recessionary weakness in manufacturing activity with the size and breadth of the latest pullback clearly demanding that closer scrutiny be paid to these series in future releases.

The following chart shows the current and future activity indexes both with their corresponding 3-month moving averages. The red line marks the threshold between contraction and expansion for these diffusion indexes.

Philadelphia Feeling: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey August 2011

The latest release of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey (BOS) for August indicated dramatic weakness in the regions manufacturing activity with the current activity index plunging to a notable contraction level of -30.7 while the future activity index declined to a level of 1.4.

The current activity index along with most of the other "current" data points (new orders, unfilled orders, delivery time and inventories) are now indicating significant recessionary weakness in manufacturing activity with the size and breadth of the latest pullback clearly demanding that closer scrutiny be paid to these series in future releases.

The following chart shows the current and future activity indexes both with their corresponding 3-month moving averages. The red line marks the threshold between contraction and expansion for these diffusion indexes.

Philadelphia Feeling: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey July 2011

The latest release of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey (BOS) for July indicated continued weakness in the regions manufacturing activity with the current activity index remaining at a near contraction level of 3.2 while the future activity index increased to a level of 23.7.

The current activity index along with many of the other current data points (new orders, unfilled orders, delivery time and inventories) are now indicating notable weakness in manufacturing activity with the size and breadth of the latest pullback clearly demanding that closer scrutiny be paid to these series in future releases.

The following chart shows the current and future activity indexes both with their corresponding 3-month moving averages. The red line marks the threshold between contraction and expansion for these diffusion indexes.

Philadelphia Feeling: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey June 2011

The latest release of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey (BOS) for June indicated a continued notable pullback in the regions manufacturing activity with the current activity index plunging to a level of -7.7 while the future activity index also declined to a level of 2.5.

The current activity index along with four additional current data points (new orders, unfilled orders, delivery time and inventories) are now indicating contraction of manufacturing activity with the size and breadth of the latest pullback clearly demanding that closer scrutiny be paid to these series in future releases.

The following chart shows the current and future activity indexes both with their corresponding 3-month moving averages. The red line marks the threshold between contraction and expansion for these diffusion indexes.

Philadelphia Feeling: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey May 2011

The latest release of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey (BOS) for May indicated a notable pullback in the regions manufacturing activity with the current activity index plunging to a level of 3.9 while the future activity index also declined to a level of 16.6.

Both indices are still indicating expansion though the size of the latest pullback clearly demands that closer attention be paid to these series in future releases.

The following chart shows the current and future activity indexes both with their corresponding 3-month moving averages. The red line marks the threshold between contraction and expansion for these diffusion indexes.

Philadelphia Feeling: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey April 2011

The latest release of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey (BOS) for April indicated a pullback in the regions manufacturing activity with the current activity index declining notably to a level of 18.50 while the future activity index also declined to a level of 33.6.

Both indices are still indicating expansion though the size of the latest pullback clearly demands that closer attention be paid to these series in future releases.

The following chart shows the current and future activity indexes both with their corresponding 3-month moving averages. The red line marks the threshold between contraction and expansion for these diffusion indexes.

Philadelphia Feeling: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey March 2011

The latest release of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey (BOS) for March indicated strong growth in the regions manufacturing activity with the current activity index increasing to a level of 43.4 while the future activity index improved notably jumping to a level of 63.

In the first two charts, the bright green band indicates contraction (0 to -100) while any value above that band indicates expansion.