On The Pulse: Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index April 2012

Today's release of the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI) suggests that economic activity improved slightly in April with the seasonally adjusted index climbing 0.05% from March but falling 1.89% below the level seen in April 2011.

The three month moving average of the PCI increased slightly from March indicating that the April Industrial Production data will likely show a similar trend.

On The Pulse: Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index March 2012

The latest release of the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI) suggests that economic activity improved in March with the seasonally adjusted index climbing 0.34% from February but falling 2.17% below the level seen in March 2011.

The three month moving average of the PCI increased slightly from October indicating that the March Industrial Production data will likely show a similar trend.

On The Pulse: Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index November 2011

The latest release of the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI) suggests that economic activity improved slightly in November with the seasonally adjusted index climbing 0.13% from October and climbing 0.92% above the level seen in November 2010.

Currently, the PCI appears to be slowing overall joining a host of other sensitive indicators that currently appear to be signaling notable economic weakness and possible looming recession.  

The three month moving average of the PCI increased slightly from October indicating that the November (released this week) Industrial Production data will likely show a similar trend.

On The Pulse: Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index October 2011

The latest release of the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI) suggests that economic activity improved in October with the seasonally adjusted index climbing 1.15% from September and climbing 1.33% above the level seen in October 2010.

Currently, the PCI appears to be slowing overall joining a host of other sensitive indicators that currently appear to be signaling notable economic weakness and possible looming recession.  

The three month moving average of the PCI declined from September indicating that the October (released next week) Industrial Production data will likely show a similar trend.

On The Pulse: Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index July 2011

The latest release of the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI) suggests that economic activity slowed in July with the seasonally adjusted index declining 0.21% from June and only rising 1.0% above the level seen in July 2010.

The three month moving average of the PCI declined slightly from June indicating that the July (released next week) Industrial Production data will likely show a similar trend.

On The Pulse: Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index June 2011

The latest release of the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI) suggests that economic activity picked up in June with the seasonally adjusted index increasing 1.01% from May and rising 2.20% above the level seen in June 2010.

The three month moving average of the PCI continued to went flat from May indicating that the June (released friday) Industrial Production data will likely show a similar trend.

Chief PCI Economist Ed Leamer likens the current economic circumstances to a wobbly "she loves me, she loves me not" situation with the national economic trends vacillating monthly between strength and weakness.

On The Pulse: Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index April 2011

The latest release of the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI) suggests that economic activity slowed slightly in April with the seasonally adjusted index declining .50% from March but remaining 3.45% above the level seen in April 2010.

Further, the three month moving average of the PCI continued to climb from March indicating that the March (next week) Industrial Production data will likely show a similar trend.

Chief PCI Economist Ed Leamer calls the latest trend "wobbly and muted" and suggests that while growth is still occurring, the trends are weak.

On The Pulse: Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index November 2010

The latest release of the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI) suggests that the economic activity increased slightly in November with the seasonally adjusted index increasing 0.38% as compared to October and remaining 4.48% above the level seen in November 2009.

Further, the three month moving average continued to decline indicating that the November Industrial Production data will likely show a similar trend.

On The Pulse: Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index September 2010

The latest release of the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI) suggests that the economic activity slipped again September with the seasonally adjusted index declining .50% as compared to August but remaining 5.79% above the level seen in September 2009.

Further, the three month moving average remained flat indicating that the September Industrial Production data (released tomorrow) will likely show a similar trend.

On The Pulse: Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index August 2010

The latest release of the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI) suggests that the economic activity slipped in August with the seasonally adjusted index declining 1.01% as compared to July and remaining 6.32% above the level seen in August 2009.

Further, the three month moving average declined slightly indicating that the August Industrial Production data (released tomorrow) will likely show a similar trend.

On The Pulse: Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index July 2010

The latest release of the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI) suggests that the economic activity picked up in July with the seasonally adjusted index increasing 1.66% as compared to June and remaining 8.00% above the level seen in July 2009.

Further, the three month moving average registered another significant year-over-year increase indicating that the July Industrial Production data will likely show a similar annual gain.

On The Pulse: Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index May 2010

The latest release of the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI) suggests that the economic activity increased notably in May with the seasonally adjusted index jumping 3.07% as compared to April and increasing 8.99% above the level seen in May 2009.

Further, the three month moving average registered another significant year-over-year increase indicating that the May Industrial Production data (released next week) will likely show a similar annual gain.

As cited in the release, the PCI is closely correlated to the industrial production series but given the broad nature of the series it’s not surprising to see that it correlates well with other macro data.

Looking at the chart below (click for full-screen dynamic version) you can see that while a pretty reasonable correlation exists between the PCI and the S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-10 Home Price Index (CSI), the CSI reached its peak roughly a year before the PCI.

Could the latest easing of home prices foretell a general slowing trend in the economy or is the Ceridian index forecasting increasing home prices?

We will have to wait some months to find out which trend is leading.

On The Pulse: Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index April 2010

The latest release of the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI) suggests that the economic activity slowed slightly in April with the seasonally adjusted index declining 0.32% as compared to March but remaining 6.54% above the level seen in April 2009.

Further, the three month moving average registered another significant year-over-year increase indicating that the April Industrial Production data (released on Friday) will likely show a similar annual gain.

As cited in the release, the PCI is closely correlated to the industrial production series but given the broad nature of the series it’s not surprising to see that it correlates well with other macro data.

Looking at the chart below (click for full-screen dynamic version) you can see that while a pretty reasonable correlation exists between the PCI and the S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-10 Home Price Index (CSI), the CSI reached its peak roughly a year before the PCI.

Could the latest easing of home prices foretell a general slowing trend in the economy or is the Ceridian index forecasting increasing home prices?

We will have to wait some months to find out which trend is leading.

On The Pulse: Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index March 2010

The latest release of the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI) suggests that the economic activity increased in March with the seasonally adjusted index increasing 1.02% as compared to February and 5.99% on year-over-year basis.

Further, the three month moving average registered another year-over-year increase indicating that the March Industrial Production data (released next week) will likely show a similar annual gain.

As cited in the release, the PCI is closely correlated to the industrial production series but given the broad nature of the series it’s not surprising to see that it correlates well with other macro data.

Looking at the chart below (click for full-screen dynamic version) you can see that while a pretty reasonable correlation exists between the PCI and the S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-10 Home Price Index (CSI), the CSI reached its peak roughly a year before the PCI.

Could the latest easing of home prices foretell a general slowing trend in the economy?

On The Pulse: Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index February 2010

The latest release of the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI) suggests that the economic activity declined slightly in February with the seasonally adjusted index declining 0.68% as compared to January yet, on an year-over-year basis, the index rose 5.06%.

Further, the three month moving average registered another year-over-year increase indicating that February’s Industrial Production data (released next week) could show a similar annual gain.

As cited in the release, the PCI is closely correlated to the industrial production series but given the broad nature of the series it’s not surprising to see that it correlates well with other macro data.

Looking at the chart below (click for full-screen dynamic version) you can see that while a pretty reasonable correlation exists between the PCI and the S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-10 Home Price Index (CSI), the CSI reached its peak roughly a year before the PCI.

Could the latest easing of home prices foretell a general slowing trend in the economy?

Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Leads Industrial Production in January

As a follow up to last week’s initial release of the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index (PCI), I wanted to point out that it was successful in forecasting today’s industrial production (IP) results.

Although the underlying index suggested some weakness was encountered between December 2009 and January 2010, the less noisy 3 month moving average correctly predicted that the industrial production series would turn positive on a year-over-year basis in January.

This again suggests that the PCI is an accurate and timely predictor of the Feds industrial production series and likely a whole host of other aggregate macroeconomic data series.

The following chart (click for full-screen dynamic version) shows the PCI and the IP series plotted along with their year-over-year percent changes since 2004.