Employment Situation: Total Unemployment May 2017

Today's Employment Situation report showed that in May “total unemployment” including all marginally attached workers declined to 8.4% while the traditionally reported unemployment rate declined to 4.3%.

The traditional unemployment rate is calculated from the monthly household survey results using a fairly explicit definition of “unemployed” (essentially unemployed and currently looking for full time employment) leaving many workers to be considered effectively “on the margin” either employed in part time work when full time is preferred or simply unemployed and no longer looking for work.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics considers “marginally attached” workers (including discouraged workers) and persons who have settled for part time employment to be “underutilized” labor.

The broadest view of unemployment would include both traditionally unemployed workers and all other underutilized workers.

To calculate the “total” rate of unemployment we would simply use this larger group rather than the smaller and more restrictive “unemployed” group used in the traditional unemployment rate calculation.

Employment Situation: Unemployment Duration February 2017

Today's employment situation report showed that conditions for the long term unemployed generally improved in February.

Workers unemployed 27 weeks or more declined to 1.801 million or 23.8% of all unemployed workers while the median term of unemployment declined to 10.0 weeks and the average stay on unemployment went flat at 25.1 weeks.

Employment Situation: Nonfarm Payrolls and Civilian Unemployment January 2017

Today's Employment Situation Report indicated that in January, net non-farm payrolls increased by 227,000 jobs overall with the private non-farm payrolls sub-component adding 237,000 jobs while the civilian unemployment increased to 4.8% over the same period.

Net private sector jobs increased 0.19% since last month climbing 1.80% above the level seen a year ago and climbing 6.30% above the peak level of employment seen in December 2007 prior to the Great Recession.

Reading Rates: MBA Application Survey – July 27 2016

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages as well as the volume of both purchase and refinance applications.

The purchase application index has been highlighted as a particularly important data series as it very broadly captures the demand side of residential real estate for both new and existing home purchases.

The latest data is showing that the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage (from FHA and conforming GSE data) increased 3 basis points to 3.64% since last week while the purchase application volume declined 3% and the refinance application volume declined 15% over the same period.

The following chart shows the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages since 2006 as well as the purchase, refinance and composite loan volumes (click for larger dynamic full-screen version).

S&P/Case-Shiller: May 2016

The latest release of the S&P/Case-Shiller (CSI) home price indices for May reported that the non-seasonally adjusted National index increased from April with prices rising 1.17% while the non-seasonally adjusted Composite-10 city index increased 0.76% and the Composite-20 city index increased 0.89% over the same period.

On an annual basis, the National index increased 5.05% above the level seen in May 2015 while the Composite-10 city index increased 4.40% and the Composite-20 city index increased 5.24% over the same period.

On a peak basis, all three indices still show peak declines slumping -2.12% for the National index, -10.59% for the Composite-10 city index and -8.83% for the Composite-20 city index on a peak comparison basis.

Employment Situation: Nonfarm Payrolls and Civilian Unemployment June 2016

Today's Employment Situation Report indicated that in June, net non-farm payrolls increased by a notable 287,000 jobs overall with the private non-farm payrolls sub-component adding 265,000 jobs while the civilian unemployment increased to 4.9% over the same period.

Net private sector jobs increased 0.22% since last month climbing 1.94% above the level seen a year ago and climbing 5.24% above the peak level of employment seen in December 2007 prior to the Great Recession.

The Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity: June 2016

Yesterday, the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond released their Survey of Manufacturing Activity for June showing that the composite index, the broadest measure of manufacturing activity, worsened notably falling to a level of -7 from a level of -1 the prior month.

The most notable component measures also showed similar results with a weak Shipments level of -3, New Orders falling to -14 and Backlog of Orders falling to -17.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index: May 2016

The latest release of the Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index (CFNAI) indicated that national economic activity worsened in May with the index falling to a contraction level of -0.51 from a weak positive level of 0.05 a month earlier while the three month moving average weakened to a level of -0.36.

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity collected into four overall categories of “production and income”, “employment, unemployment and income”, “personal consumption and housing” and “sales, orders and inventories”.

The Chicago Fed regards a value of zero for the total index as indicating that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate while a negative value indicates below average growth.

A value at or below -0.70 for the three month moving average of the national activity index (CFNAI-MA3) indicates that the national economy has either just entered or continues in recession.

The Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity: May 2016

Today, the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond released their Survey of Manufacturing Activity for May showing that the composite index, the broadest measure of manufacturing activity, worsened notably falling to a level of -1 from a level of 14 the prior month.

The most notable component measures also showed similar results with Shipments falling to -8, New Orders falling to 0 and Backlog of Orders falling to -13.

The Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey: May 2016

The May release of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey (BOS) indicated a worsening of the regions manufacturing activity with the current activity index declining to a level of -1.8 while assessments the future activity also slipped to a level of 36.1.

The above chart shows the current and future activity indexes both with their corresponding 3-month moving averages. The red line marks the threshold between contraction and expansion for these diffusion indexes.

NAHB/Wells Fargo Home Builder Sentiment: May 2016

Today, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) released their latest Housing Market Index (HMI) showing that overall assessments of housing activity generally went flat for the fourth straight month in May with the composite HMI index remaining at 58 while the "buyer traffic" index went flat at a level of 44.

Employment Situation: Unemployment Duration February 2016

Today's employment situation report showed that conditions for the long term unemployed worsened notably in February.

Workers unemployed 27 weeks or more increased to 2.165 million or 27.7% of all unemployed workers while the median term of unemployment increased to 11.2 weeks and the average stay on unemployment increased to 29.0 weeks.

ISM Non-Manufacturing Report on Business: February 2016

Today, the Institute for Supply Management released their latest Non-Manufacturing Report on Business indicating that service related business activity went flat in February with the overall non-manufacturing index falling to 53.4 from last months reading of 53.5.

At 57.8 the business activity index improved significantly since last month but still dropped 2.69% below the level seen a year earlier.

S&P/Case-Shiller: December 2015

Today's release of the S&P/Case-Shiller (CSI) home price indices for December reported that the non-seasonally adjusted National index increased slightly from November with prices rising 0.09% while the non-seasonally adjusted Composite-10 city index declined 0.06% and the Composite-20 city index increased 0.02% over the same period.

On an annual basis, the National index increased 5.43% above the level seen in December 2014 while the Composite-10 city index increased 5.14% and the Composite-20 city index increased 5.74% over the same period.

On a peak basis, all three indices still show significant peak declines slumping 4.86% for the National index, -12.85% for the Composite-10 city index and -11.51% for the Composite-20 city index on a peak comparison basis.

JOLT Job Openings and Labor Turnover: December 2015

Today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released their latest monthly read of job availability and labor turnover (JOLT) showing that private non-farm job “openings” increased 5.56% since November rising 11.76% above the level seen in December 2014 while private non-farm job “hires” rose 2.00% from November and 2.33% above the level seen in December 2014.

Quit activity, generally a mark of a strong job market for workers, also jumped notably rising 6.8% since November rising 12.5% above the level seen in December 2014.

Employment Situation: Total Unemployment January 2016

Today's Employment Situation report showed that in January “total unemployment” including all marginally attached workers went flat at again 9.9% while the traditionally reported unemployment rate declined slightly to 4.9%.

The traditional unemployment rate is calculated from the monthly household survey results using a fairly explicit definition of “unemployed” (essentially unemployed and currently looking for full time employment) leaving many workers to be considered effectively “on the margin” either employed in part time work when full time is preferred or simply unemployed and no longer looking for work.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics considers “marginally attached” workers (including discouraged workers) and persons who have settled for part time employment to be “underutilized” labor.

The broadest view of unemployment would include both traditionally unemployed workers and all other underutilized workers.

To calculate the “total” rate of unemployment we would simply use this larger group rather than the smaller and more restrictive “unemployed” group used in the traditional unemployment rate calculation.

Construction Spending: December 2015

Today, the U.S. Census Bureau released their latest read of construction spending showing improved residential spending but weakening non-residential spending for December with total private construction spending and single family construction spending rising on the month while non-residential construction spending declined.

On a month-to-month basis, total residential construction spending increased 0.9% on the month rising 8.1% above the level seen a year earlier but still remained well below the peak level seen in 2006.

Single family construction spending increased 1.0% on the month rising 8.7% above the level seen a year earlier but still remained well below it's peak level reached in 2006.

Non-residential construction spending declined a notable 2.1% on the month but rose 11.8% above the level seen a year earlier but still remains a well below the peak level reached in October 2008.

The following charts (click for larger dynamic versions) show private residential construction spending, private residential single family construction spending and private non-residential construction spending broken out and plotted since 1993 along with the year-over-year, month-to-month and peak percent change to each since 1994 and 2000 – 2005.

Reading Rates: MBA Application Survey – September 30 2015

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages as well as the volume of both purchase and refinance applications.

The purchase application index has been highlighted as a particularly important data series as it very broadly captures the demand side of residential real estate for both new and existing home purchases.

The latest data is showing that the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage (from FHA and conforming GSE data) decreased 2 basis point to 3.97% since last week while the purchase application volume declined 6% and the refinance application volume declined 8% over the same period.

The following chart shows the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages since 2006 as well as the purchase, refinance and composite loan volumes (click for larger dynamic full-screen version).

Employment Situation: Unemployment Duration August 2015

Today's employment situation report showed that conditions for the long term unemployed worsened in August while still remaining distressed by historic standards.

Workers unemployed 27 weeks or more increased to 2.187 million or 27.7% of all unemployed workers while the median term of unemployment increased to 12.1 weeks and the average stay on unemployment increased to 28.4 weeks.

Weekly Unemployment Claims: Initial and Continued July 07 2015

Today’s jobless claims report showed a an increase to both initial and insured unemployment claims as seasonally adjusted initial claims approched the 300K level.

Seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims increased 15,000 to 297,000 claims while seasonally adjusted “insured” claims increased by 69,000 to 2.334 million resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 1.7%.