Hong Kong Bubble?: Hong Kong Residential Property Prices January 2014

The latest release of the University of Hong Kong's Hong Kong Residential Real Estate Series (HKU-REIS) indicating that, in January, the price of residential properties declined 2.45% since December falling 1.30% below the level seen in January 2013.

Clearly, the latest data is indicating a notable pullback in prices coming with the first year-on-year declines seen since 2009.  It will take some more data in order to see the extent of this pullback but with recent headlines indicating that China officials are loosening property and lending standards in order to control the downside risk, it appears that we may be seeing the beginnings of a notable pullback.

The HKU-REIS is a set of property price indices constructed monthly using a “modified” repeat-sale methodology similar to that of the S&P/Case-Shiller indices yet suited to the Hong Kong property market.

Hong Kong Bubble?: Hong Kong Residential Property Prices February 2012

The latest release of the University of Hong Kong's Hong Kong Residential Real Estate Series (HKU-REIS) indicating that, in February, the price of residential properties increased a notable 1.91% since January and rose 29.26% above the level seen in February 2012.

Clearly, the slight pullback in prices seen late 2012 has been completely surpassed by another, notable leg up.

With the prior late-90s era peak having been bested handily by the latest price run up, it will be interesting to see how long this period of house price inflation can run.

The HKU-REIS is a set of property price indices constructed monthly using a “modified” repeat-sale methodology similar to that of the S&P/Case-Shiller indices yet suited to the Hong Kong property market.

Hong Kong Bubble?: Hong Kong Residential Property Prices October 2011

Today, the University of Hong Kong released their Hong Kong Residential Real Estate Series (HKU-REIS) indicating that, in October, the price of residential properties declined 0.26% since September but still climbed 13.43% above the level seen in October 2010.

It appears that after a stunning run of monthly increases that saw prices increase dramatically, prices are beginning to show a notable pullback with all measures declining on the month.

The HKU-REIS is a set of property price indices constructed monthly using a “modified” repeat-sale methodology similar to that of the S&P/Case-Shiller indices yet suited to the Hong Kong property market.

China's Engine: September 2011

Looking at the latest release of the OECD economic indicators for China, it appears that the massive jump in economic activity seen since the panicky period of late 2008 took a notable pause throughout most of 2010 and after having shown some growth into late 2010, is now back on the decline (note... this is a highly revised series that has been swinging between expansion to contraction with each monthly release).

China’s leading economic indicator suggests that economic activity slowed in September showing a month-to-month decline of 0.03% bringing the latest level 0.84% below the level seen in September 2010.

Hong Kong Bubble?: Hong Kong Residential Property Prices August 2011

Today, the University of Hong Kong released their Hong Kong Residential Real Estate Series (HKU-REIS) indicating that, in August, the price of residential properties declined 0.30% since July but climbed 20.4% above the level seen in August 2010.

It appears that after a stunning run of monthly increases that saw prices increase dramatically, prices are beginning to show a pullback of sorts with the most measures declining on the month.

The HKU-REIS is a set of property price indices constructed monthly using a “modified” repeat-sale methodology similar to that of the S&P/Case-Shiller indices yet suited to the Hong Kong property market.

Hong Kong Bubble?: Hong Kong Residential Property Prices July 2011

Today, the University of Hong Kong released their Hong Kong Residential Real Estate Series (HKU-REIS) indicating that, in July, the price of residential properties declined 0.65% since June but climbed 25.97% above the level seen in July 2010.

It appears that after a stunning run of monthly increases that saw prices increase dramatically, prices are beginning to show a pullback of sorts with the most measures declining on the month while the Island component showed the largest monthly pullback since 2008.

The HKU-REIS is a set of property price indices constructed monthly using a “modified” repeat-sale methodology similar to that of the S&P/Case-Shiller indices yet suited to the Hong Kong property market.

China's Engine: July 2011

Looking at the latest release of the OECD economic indicators for China, it appears that the massive jump in economic activity seen since the panicky period of late 2008 took a notable pause throughout most of 2010 and after having shown some growth into late 2010, is now back on the decline (note... this is a highly revised series that has been swinging between expansion to contraction with each monthly release).

China’s leading economic indicator suggests that economic activity slowed in July showing a month-to-month decline of 0.10% bringing the latest level just 0.41% below the level seen in July 2010.

China's Engine: April 2011

Looking at the latest release of the OECD economic indicators for China, it appears that the massive jump in economic activity seen since the panicky period of late 2008 took a notable pause throughout most of 2010 and after having shown some growth into early 2010, is now back on the decline (note... this is a highly revised series that has been swinging between expansion to contraction with each monthly release).

China’s leading economic indicator suggests that economic activity declined in April showing a month-to-month decline of 0.33% bringing the latest level just 0.84% below the level seen in April 2010.

China's Engine: March 2011

Looking at the latest release of the OECD economic indicators for China, it appears that the massive jump in economic activity seen since the panicky period of late 2008 took a notable pause throughout most of 2010 and now appears back on the rise (note... this is a highly revised series that has been swinging between expansion to contraction with each monthly release).

China’s leading economic indicator suggests that economic activity expanded in March showing a month-to-month increase of 0.11% bringing the latest level just 0.02% below the level seen in March 2010.

China's Engine: February 2011

Looking at the latest release of the OECD economic indicators for China, it appears that the massive jump in economic activity seen since the panicky period of late 2008 took a notable pause throughout most of 2010 and now appears back on the rise (note... this is a highly revised series that has been swinging between expansion to contraction with each monthly release).

China’s leading economic indicator suggests that economic activity expanded in February showing a month-to-month increase of 0.04% bringing the latest level 0.49% below the level seen in February 2010.

The Slumping IC in BRIC: January 2011

Looking deeper into today’s OECD Leading Indicator release, one notable trend, namely the near simultaneous slowing of India and China, sticks out as very important development when considering macro-economic conditions going forward.

One theme that has been spun numerous times since the lows of March of 2009 is that outsized growth in the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) emerging economies would provide the global economy the boost it needed to shake off the malaise of the collapse and maintain an ongoing expansion.

It could easily be argued that investor enthusiasm for the speculative potential in these hot economies (along with the suspension of mark-to-market accounting and a few trillion here and there from the Feds) did, in fact, help to turn the trend during the dire days of early 2009 but many have taken the idea of these emerging economies actually driving the global economy with a “grain-of-salt” especially considering that the combined GDP of the BRIC countries is still just roughly $9.5 trillion, that compared to the United States $14.5 trillion.

Well in any event, it looks like two key BRIC economies… the I and the C… are seeing some notable slowing in recent months.

Both India and China are seeing a continued slowdown with economic activity in China currently declining 0.93% on a year-over-year basis while India has seen a 1.38% decline over the same period.

Even if a slowdown in these emerging markets lacks the potential to put the breaks on the entire global expansion, keeping an eye on these trends could prove vital as any “flight to safety” coming as a result of their degradation could have a notable… positive… impact on investment in the US.

China's Engine: January 2011

Looking at the latest release of the OECD economic indicators for China, it appears that the massive jump in economic activity seen since the panicky period of late 2008 took a notable pause throughout most of 2010 and now appears back on the decline.

China’s leading economic indicator suggests that economic activity slowed in January showing a month-to-month decline of 0.06% bringing the latest level 0.93% below the level seen in January 2010.

The Slumping IC in BRIC

Looking deeper into today’s OECD Leading Indicator release, one notable trend, namely the near simultaneous slowing of India and China, sticks out as very important development when considering macro-economic conditions going forward.

One theme that has been spun numerous times since the lows of March of 2009 is that outsized growth in the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) emerging economies would provide the global economy the boost it needed to shake off the malaise of the collapse and maintain an ongoing expansion.

It could easily be argued that investor enthusiasm for the speculative potential in these hot economies (along with the suspension of mark-to-market accounting and a few trillion here and there from the Feds) did, in fact, help to turn the trend during the dire days of early 2009 but many have taken the idea of these emerging economies actually driving the global economy with a “grain-of-salt” especially considering that the combined GDP of the BRIC countries is still just roughly $9.5 trillion, that compared to the United States $14.5 trillion.

Well in any event, it looks like two key BRIC economies… the I and the C… are seeing some notable slowing in recent months.

Both India and China are seeing an accelerating slowdown with economic activity in China currently declining 1.62% on a year-over-year basis while India has seen a 1.33% decline over the same period.

Even if a slowdown in these emerging markets lacks the potential to put the breaks on the entire global expansion, keeping an eye on these trends could prove vital as any “flight to safety” coming as a result of their degradation could have a notable… positive… impact on investment in the US.

China's Engine: December 2010

Looking at the latest release of the OECD economic indicators for China, it appears that the massive jump in economic activity seen since the panicky period of late 2008 took a notable pause throughout most of 2010 and now appears back on the decline.

China’s leading economic indicator suggests that economic activity slowed in December showing a notable month-to-month decline of 0.10% bringing the latest level 1.62% below the level seen in December 2009.

China's Engine: November 2010

Looking at the latest release of the OECD economic indicators for China, it appears that the massive jump in economic activity seen since the panicky period of late 2008 took a notable pause throughout most of 2010 and now appears back on the rise.

China’s leading economic indicator has now increased for three consecutive months with the latest November period showing a notable month-to-month increase of 0.15% bringing the latest level just 1.09% below the level seen in November 2009.

A Chinese Mother FUBAR

Although this article originally published in the Saturday Wall Street Journal is not related to macro-economics or housing, I thought it was just too unusual not to re-post.

I don’t think I’ve ever read something quite as bizarre as this author’s take on parenting… She is one gravely screwed up character in need of some serious couch time (as will her unfortunate daughters and likely her husband too) and the fact that the WSJ would publish this article I believe is telling.

While I’m sure that there are bits of insight strewn about this monstrosity that some parents might find some utility in, taken as a whole the author appears to be a tyrant forcing her children into the life of “excellence” that she has chosen for them using guilt or shame or literally whatever it takes.

Worse yet… this fool thinks that she knows what the definition “excellence” is… her kids can only play a piano or a violin? They can’t be in a play? They can’t have a playdate?

The author is confusing excellence with rote mechanical performance… what real musician would constrain themselves to a single instrument or to just classical training?

Does one learn to understand the depth and beauty of mathematics simply through hours of repetition?

Is calling your child a “piece of garbage” and making them ashamed of their physical appearance really best for their health and well being?

Make no mistake… this author is one twisted twisted person.

In any event, the publishing of this article in the WSJ loosely reminds me of the “Japanese Inc.” style coverage that circulated in the late 80s whereby US innovation and business was depicted as being inferior to the then powerhouse Japanese model.

Of course, the start of the 90s represented the beginning of the end for Japan... now multiple decades into deflation and depression… there is no one that believes their model is superior anymore.

Could we be seeing a bit of competitive China pumping going on here?

China's Engine: October 2010

Looking at the latest release of the OECD economic indicators for China, it appears that the massive jump in economic activity seen since the panicky period of late 2008 took a notable pause throughout most of 2010 and now appears back on the rise.

China’s leading economic indicator has now increased for two consecutive months with the latest October period showing a notable month-to-month increase of 0.30% bringing the latest level just 0.73% below the level seen in October 2009.

China's Sputtering Engine: September 2010

Looking at the latest release of the OECD economic indicators for China, it appears that the massive jump in economic activity seen since the panicky period of late 2008 has drawn to a close.

China’s leading economic indicator has now declined for nine consecutive months with the latest September period showing a notable month-to-month decline of 0.36% bringing the latest level 1.89% below the level seen in September 2009.

Looking at past recessionary periods, it’s important to note that while China’s economy is clearly slowing, it will take some time to determine the severity.

We may be seeing an abrupt pullback of equal and opposite force to that of the government sponsored propping applied during 2009 or simply a slowing of a more durable overall recovery as was seen during the periods following the 1990s and early 2000s recessionary periods.

China's Sputtering Engine: August 2010

Looking at the latest release of the OECD economic indicators for China, it appears that the massive jump in economic activity seen since the panicky period of late 2008 has drawn to a close.

China’s leading economic indicator has now declined for eight consecutive months with the latest August period showing a notable month-to-month decline of 0.21% bringing the latest level 0.69% below the level seen in August 2009.

Looking at past recessionary periods, it’s important to note that while China’s economy is clearly slowing, it will take some time to determine the severity.

We may be seeing the beginnings of an abrupt pullback of equal and opposite force to that of the government sponsored propping applied during 2009 or simply a slowing of a more durable overall recovery as was seen during the periods following the 1990s and early 2000s recessionary periods.

China's Sputtering Engine: July 2010

Looking at the latest release of the OECD economic indicators for China, it appears that the massive jump in economic activity seen since the panicky period of late 2008 has drawing to a close.

China’s leading economic indicator has now declined for eight consecutive months with the latest July period showing a notable month-to-month decline of 0.18% bringing the latest level 0.03% below the level seen in July 2009.

Looking at past recessionary periods, it’s important to note that while China’s economy is clearly slowing, it will take some time to determine the severity.

We may be seeing the beginnings of an abrupt pullback of equal and opposite force to that of the government sponsored propping applied during 2009 or simply a slowing of a more durable overall recovery as was seen during the periods following the 1990s and early 2000s recessionary periods.