Follow The Leader: Index of Leading Economic Indicators January 2010

Today’s results of the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicators showed another monthly increase climbing .3% compared to December 2009 bringing the annual increase to 8.92% and leaving the index at a level of 107.4.

On the face of it this is clearly a Bullish development as this series (an aggregate of 10 component leading indices) is signaling a clear shift from leading contraction to expansion.

Although, one has to keep in mind that the leading index is strongly influenced by growth in the money supply (M2), Average weekly manufacturing hours and the price of stocks (S&P500).

Could we be headed into a second dip (… similar to mid-1981) as the government’s Keynesian chicanery shows itself to have only propped demand and temporary inventory restocking but failed to encourage real “organic” demand?

Only time will tell…

Follow The Leader: Index of Leading Economic Indicators November 2009

Today’s results of the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicators showed another monthly increase climbing .9% compared to October bringing the annual increase to 5.96% and leaving the index at a level of 104.9.

On the face of it this is clearly a Bullish “Green Shoots” development as this series (an aggregate of 10 component leading indices) is signaling a clear shift from leading contraction to expansion though the leading index is strongly influenced by stocks (i.e. the inclusion of the S&P 500 as one of the leading indicators) and the pronounced “V”-shaped bounce coming directly on the back of such a dramatic period of decline appears suspicious.

Could we be headed into a second dip (… similar to mid-1981) as the government’s Keynesian chicanery shows itself to have only propped demand but failed to encourage real “organic” demand?

Only time will tell…

Follow The Leader: Index of Leading Economic Indicators October 2009

Today’s results of the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicators showed another monthly increase climbing .3% compared to September bringing the annual increase to 4.22% and leaving the index at a level of 103.8.

On the face of it this is clearly a Bullish “Green Shoots” development as this series (an aggregate of 10 component leading indices) is signaling a clear shift from leading contraction to expansion though the leading index is strongly influenced by stocks (i.e. the inclusion of the S&P 500 as one of the leading indicators) and the pronounced “V”-shaped bounce coming directly on the back of such a dramatic period of decline appears suspicious.

Could we be headed into a second dip (… similar to mid-1981) as the government’s Keynesian chicanery shows itself to have only propped demand but failed to encourage real “organic” demand?

Only time will tell…

Follow The Leader: Index of Leading Economic Indicators September 2009

Today’s results of the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicators showed another significant monthly increase climbing 1.0% compared to August bringing the annual increase to 2.88% and leaving the index at a level of 103.5.

On the face of it this is clearly a Bullish “Green Shoots” development as this series (an aggregate of 10 component leading indices) is signaling a clear shift from leading contraction to expansion though the leading index is strongly influenced by stocks (i.e. the inclusion of the S&P 500 as one of the leading indicators) and the pronounced “V”-shaped bounce coming directly on the back of such a dramatic period of decline appears suspicious.

Could we be headed into a second dip (… similar to mid-1981) as the government’s Keynesian chicanery shows itself to have only propped demand but failed to encourage real “organic” demand?

Only time will tell…

Follow The Leader: Index of Leading Economic Indicators August 2009

Today’s results of the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicators showed another significant monthly increase climbing .6% compared to July bringing the annual increase to 1.89% and leaving the index at a level of 102.5.

On the face of it this is clearly a Bullish “Green Shoots” development as this series (an aggregate of 10 component leading indices) is signaling a clear shift from leading contraction to expansion though the leading index is strongly influenced by stocks (i.e. the inclusion of the S&P 500 as one of the leading indicators) and the pronounced “V”-shaped bounce coming directly on the back of such a dramatic period of decline appears suspicious.

Could we be headed into a second dip (… similar to mid-1981) as the government’s Keynesian chicanery shows itself to have only propped demand but failed to encourage real “organic” demand?

Only time will tell…

Follow The Leader: Index of Leading Economic Indicators June 2009

Today’s results of the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicators showed another significant monthly increase climbing .7% compared to May while cutting the annual decline to just 0.98% and leaving the index at a level of 100.9.

On the face of it this is clearly a Bullish “Green Shoots” development as this series (an aggregate of 10 component leading indices) is signaling a clear shift from leading contraction to expansion though the leading index is strongly influenced by stocks and the pronounced “V”-shaped bounce coming directly on the back of such a dramatic period of decline appears suspicious.

Follow The Leader: Index of Leading Economic Indicators May 2009

Today’s results of the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicators showed another significant monthly increase climbing 1.2% compared to April while cutting the annual decline to just 1.67% compared to May 2008 leaving the index at a level of 100.2.

On the face of it this is clearly a Bullish “Green Shoots” development as this series (an aggregate of 10 component leading indices) is signaling a clear shift from leading contraction to expansion though the strong “V”-shaped bounce is clearly reflecting the large move up in stocks recently as well as a six month surge in M2 (both components).

Follow The Leader: Index of Leading Economic Indicators April 2009

Today’s results of the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicators showed a significant monthly increase climbing 1.0% compared to March but continue to indicate general weakness declining 2.94% compared to April 2008 leaving the index at a level of 99.0.

Follow The Leader: Index of Leading Economic Indicators February 2009

Today’s results of the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicators continue to indicate troubled times ahead declining 0.4% from January 2009 and 3.34% compared to February 2008, leaving the index at a level of 98.5.

Follow The Leader: Index of Leading Economic Indicators January 2009

Today’s results of the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicators continue to indicate troubled times ahead increasing .4% from December 2008 but declining 2.55% compared to January 2008, leaving the index at 99.5.

Follow The Leader: Index of Leading Economic Indicators November 2008

Today’s results of the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicators continue to indicate troubled times ahead declining 0.4% from October and declining 3.70% compared to November 2007, leaving the index at 99.0.

It’s important to note that a year-over-year decline greater than 1.5% has ONLY preceded EVERY recession that has occurred in the last 59 years so the 11 consecutive and significant year-over-year declines strongly suggests that overall the components of the index are indicating that recession is upon us.

Follow The Leader: Index of Leading Economic Indicators October 2008

Today’s results of the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicators continue to indicate troubled times ahead declining 0.8% from September and declining 3.49% compared to October 2007, leaving the index at 99.6.

It’s important to note that a year-over-year decline greater than 1.5% has ONLY preceded EVERY recession that has occurred in the last 59 years so the 11 consecutive and significant year-over-year declines strongly suggests that overall the components of the index are indicating that recession is upon us.

Follow The Leader: Index of Leading Economic Indicators September 2008

Today’s results of the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicators continue to indicate troubled times ahead increasing a tepid 0.3% from August and declining 2.99% compared to September 2007, leaving the index at 100.6.

It’s important to note that a year-over-year decline greater than 1.5% has ONLY preceded EVERY recession that has occurred in the last 59 years so the 11 consecutive and significant year-over-year declines strongly suggests that overall the components of the index are indicating that recession is upon us.