Paper Economy - A US Real Estate Bubble Blog: The Big Apple Goin’ Bust!

Tuesday, January 06, 2009

The Big Apple Goin’ Bust!

The recent article titled "What's in Store for Regional Banks" by fellow blogger and expert mortgage analyst Ira Artman is a superb example of macroeconomic and credit modeling and forecasting… I would encourage all to give it a good read.

Ira demonstrates very clearly that community banks in the New York and New Jersey metro area are likely facing a prolonged period of rising non-performing loan ratios regardless of the quality (or touted quality) of the bank’s “prime” loan portfolio or its management

What’s driving this "prime" mortgage portfolio stress is simple… significant unemployment and falling home prices.

Labels: community banks, economy recession, housing bubble, prime loans

2 Comments:

I suspect this will be an awesomely bad year for New York real estate. Particularly in the city.

New Jersey too.

By Dagger, at 11:16 PM
Dagger,

NYC will be particularly interesting... I think its safe to say the the surrounding suburban regions will face a whole heap of stress but the city... that will be interesting to watch... So far it looks almost like the nation in 2006... collapsing sales volume and now the initial signs of price depreciation.

So much of Wall Street is really now on the street... and they, of all population of workers, appear very likely not to be needed anytime soon... AND they have BIG burn rates (expensive homes and stuff) ... Might bring NYC to financial dire states.

By SoldAtTheTop, at 10:24 AM