Monday, June 29, 2009

More Pain, No Gain: S&P/Case-Shiller Preview for April 2009

As I had noted in a prior post, given their strong correlation, the home price indices provided daily by Radar Logic can be effectively used as a preview of the more popular monthly S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices.

The current Radar Logic data reported on residential real estate transactions (condos, multi and single family homes) that settled as late as April 27 appears to indicate that while price declines have decelerated for many of the hardest hit markets, most are likely only experiencing a momentary and typical seasonal bounce.

Further, the major east coast markets of New York and Washington DC show no sign of even a brief change in the trend with New York actually declining through the typically string spring selling season.

Miami is clearly continuing its historic price slide as the number of distressed sales climb and buyer sentiment relents under the weight of the recessionary conditions.

Phoenix, San Francisco and LA are showing a bounce in prices likely the result of dramatically lower prices, distressed properties and the recent gains in consumer confidence.

Seattle, Boston, Denver and Chicago are all experiencing the typical seasonal bounce with prices on course for a June-July (reported data) peak and then a resumption of decline into the seasonal lows of winter.

Boston, Denver and Chicago all appear to be following the typical seasonal pattern of increasing prices during the high transaction months of the spring and early summer and price declines during the fall and winter but it is important to note for Chicago and Boston, prices are clearly trending lower.

Washington DC and New York continue to be a nearly perfect examples of a market that have broken down under the strain of the housing bust and wider economic turmoil showing consistent price declines throughout spring and summer months where normally strong seasonal sales patterns typically brings increasing prices.