Thursday, October 07, 2010

Economic Jolt: Job Openings and Labor Turnover August 2010

Today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released their latest monthly read of job availability and labor turnover (JOLT) showing that in August private non-farm job “openings” increased 0.99% since July rising 35.80% above the level seen in August 2009, job “hires” declined 3.26% since July rising 4.30% above the level seen in August 2009 while job “layoffs and discharges” plunged 13.74% since July and dropping 20.54% below the level seen last year.

Job “openings” (click chart below for larger version), the reports most leading “demand side” indicator, clearly appears to be in the process of defining a bottom vacillating monthly between gain and loss but trending above the low levels seen during early 2009.



It’s important to understand that job “quits” are included as a component of the “separations” data series as “quitting” is a valid means of workers “separating” from employers but their inclusion tends to create an overall procyclical trend in what would otherwise be logically thought of as a countercyclical process (i.e. downturn leads to increase in separations not decrease).



3 comments:

  1. Anonymous7:08 PM

    Right, but venture capitalists and the private sector will find a new way to create jobs. New industries and sources of revenue will be created in the future. You cannot underestimate the power of innovation.

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  2. Anonymous7:13 PM

    Where is the market update these days? I guess its going in the wrong direction for SATT.

    MSMLX up 29.5% YTD
    FEMEX up 17.7% YTD
    MAPIX up 17.1% YTD
    PRTNX up 9.2% YTD

    A savings account = paying in donuts.

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  3. Innovations have there own timeline and may exist in many forms such as existing research or a vague thought in some young kid that gets released as an adult so to expect innovation itself to be the catalyst for job creation in the near term doesn't provide the economy much hope today but there is lots of evidence that using available technology in new applications can generate significant economic benefits quickly. One such move was during the 30's when the REA was created to bring electricity to the rural country side while it took several years to get it going the impact on the economy was significant. We have the ability now to bring a variety of alternative energy sources into production ,upgrade our electrical grid, upgrade water treatment plants all would provide immediate employment and business development which could be the catalyst for the transformation our current economic malaise. The stumbling block is much like what kept the utility industry from expanding into rural America back in the 20's and early 30's a lack of vision which was provide in this case by FDR. Who and how the match will be lite this time we will have to wait and find out hopefully it will be soon.

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