Bull Trip!: GDP Report Q4 2010 (Second Rough Estimate)
Today, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released their second "estimate" of the Q4 2010 GDP report showing that the economy continued to expand, though at a notably slower pace than originally reported, with real GDP increasing at an annualized rate of just 2.8% from Q3 2010.On a year-over-year basis real GDP increased 2.70% while the quarter-to-quarter non-annualized percent change was 0.69%.
The latest report reveals an unexpected increase for housing with residential fixed investment increasing at a rate of 2.8% from the third quarter though additional revisions are needed to get something that resembles accuracy from this figure.
Note that the administration (and the BEA) have yet to take down their estimates for Q2 residential fixed investment which still sits at the lofty level of a supposed 25.7% quarter-to-quarter change... not likely.... look for that figure to be revised down in coming releases impacting the anemic "final" Q2 results.
Non-residential fixed investment in structures supposedly increased at 4.5% from the third quarter while the "change in real private inventories" began to bear down subtracting some 3.7% from real GDP after having worked to prop the value for five consecutive quarters.
Both imports and exports of goods and services worked to contribute positively to GDP with exports of services increasing at a rate of 9.6% while imports of goods declined at a rate of 14.1% (counted as a contribution to GDP) from the third quarter.
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PaperEconomy Blog - www.papereconomy.com
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PaperEconomy Blog - www.papereconomy.com
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3 Comments:
Hello,
I'm with Benzinga and I was wondering if I could get the email for the blogger of Paper Economy? I have a few ideas on how we might be able to work together.
Best,
Andrew Alexander
Director of Business, Technology and Marketing
www.benzinga.com
877-440-9464
andrew@benzinga.com
By
Andrew Alexander, at 2:13 PM
Reality check, folks. Note that the Commerce Department assumed an annualized Q4 domestic inflation rate of a just 0.38% (i.e. almost zero). Meanwhile, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (the keepers of the CPI), report a seasonally adjusted annualized Q4 inflation rate of 3.26%. That’s a pretty big discrepancy.
So what would the Commerce Department’s Q4 GDP growth figure of 2.79% fall to if the BLS Q4 inflation figure of 3.26% were applied? Answer: -0.08%. And yes, that’s a minus sign. So, if the BLS Q4 inflation figure is to be belived then there was absolutely no real Q4 GDP growth.
Lesson learned? The Commerce Department, in its desperate attempt to keep the illusion of a “recovery” alive, will stoop to even the most obvious and blatant statistical machinations to get that magic “positive growth” figure. One can only wonder, in bemused anticipation, what statistical machinations and bogus figures the Commerce Department will pull out of their bag of tricks for the Q1 2011 estimate.
By
Anonymous, at 3:28 AM
Housing with residential fixed investment is increasing form year to year in a faster way..
By
MBA in real estate, at 4:11 AM
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