Tuesday, February 14, 2012

Conspicuous Correlation: Retail Sales January 2012

Today, the U.S. Census Bureau released its latest nominal read of retail sales showing a 0.4% increase from December and an increase of 5.8% on a year-over-year basis on an aggregate of all items including food, fuel and healthcare services.

Nominal "discretionary" retail sales including home furnishings, home garden and building materials, consumer electronics and department store sales increased 0.47% from December and increased 4.86% above the level seen in January 2011 while, adjusting for inflation, “real” discretionary retail sales increased 2.23% over the same period.

On a “nominal” basis, there had appeared to be “rough correlation” between strong home value appreciation and strong retail spending preceding the housing bust and an even stronger correlation when home values started to decline.

The following chart shows the year-over-year change to nominal discretionary retail sales and the year-over-year change to nominal the S&P/Case-Shiller Composite home price index since 1993 and since 2000.

As you can see there is, at the very least, a coincidental change to home values and consumer spending during the boom and then the bust, but as home values have continued to decline, retail spending has remained low but has not continued to consistently contract.

Looking at the chart below (click for full-screen dynamic version), adjusted for inflation (CPI for retail sales, CPI “less shelter” for S&P/Case-Shiller Composite) the “rough correlation” between the year-over-year change to the “discretionary” retail sales series and the year-over-year S&P/Case-Shiller Composite series seems now even more significant.


  1. I appreciate that you were able to share this to us. Thank you you so much.

  2. The stand-out feature belonging toward Nike Nike soccer cleats T90 Laser football boots could be the ShotShield technolgy, which guarantees even stress inside the Nike Football Cleats ball at result for accuracy. The Instep Pods are set up for getting flat for the Cheap Football Boots foot, to produce even stress distribution when shooting the ball with accuracy, and their longitudinal Nike Mercurial Superfly and versatile design and design accommodates an enlarged kicking area.

    Complimenting the Instep Pods New nike soccer shoes are strategically angled and raised Fins in an Orange Blaze colour, to produce friction and enhanced Nike Mercurial Vapor Superfly ball spin for shooting and passing. each and every fin is positioned at a numerous angle as well as a Best Football Boots numerous height ( amid 0-3mm), to allow the participant to manage the swerve belonging toward ball in multi-directional ways, based Mercurial Vapor Superfly on how the participant kicks the ball, for just about any good offer better ball spin and kicking accuracy.

    The carbon fibre sole-plate Nike mercurial soccer cleats is severely a well-liked add-on to Nike football boots, and may be especially well-liked using the Mercurial Vapor Superfly 3 avid gamers actually because it's mainstream intro inside the Mercurial SL football boots. one more feature Football Boots Sale which distinguishes the Nike Elite T90 Laser football boots could be the redesigned heel counter, integrated in to the Mercurial Vapors upper for decreased excessive fat and aesthetic purposes.

  3. That is really cool. Thanks for finding it. Some really good ideas there, this is going to be a real time sink. I am a china tour lover,You can learn more: China tour operator | China tour packages | China city travel

  4. Red Wine Magazine
    Red Wine Magazine (RW) embraces the sweet and rich ideology that God the Father, the Lord Jesus Christ and the Precious Holy Spirit are releasing raw power for those gifted, creative and talented believers who are looking for success in all the unlikely places.Red Wine operates on the premise that a paradigm shift is taking place, charging the atmosphere with new information that can be made available to anyone if they know where to look. We are offering a fresh new approach to every area of life. Go to :>> http://www.redwinemag.com/
    17503 La Cantera Pkwy, Suite 104-193
    San Antonio, TX 78257
    Toll Free: 888.645.1119
    Local: 210.556.3165
    FAX: 866 611-5619
    E-mail: arts@redwinemag.com
    Website: http://www.redwinemag.com/

  5. Financing for transport trucks
    We Buy & Sell Used Trucks!
    We will work with you one on one to help you retail or wholesale your trucks. (We have many references). We only need you to send us the specifications as well as pictures of the interior & exterior of the truck(s) and let us go to work. All we ask is if there are any issues with the trucks please inform us. It never hurts having another salesperson working for you for free. The way we get paid is we add $1,000 to your bottom line price. When we receive a lead, we call and email you with the person’s information. You then will set up a time to show them the truck or trucks. If they buy from you, we will invoice you for $1,000. It’s that simple!

    We can also locate used trucks at fair prices. We call on 7,000 companies throughout the USA every 2.5 months and do come across fair prices.

    We want to thank you again for the opportunity to work with you and your company.
    DSS Trucking Services Ltd
    Darren Sheppard
    Phone: (855) 701 6388
    Cell: (416) 606 2372
    Email: darren.dsstrucking@gmail.com
    Buy from here:>> http://www.dsstrucks.com/

  6. Thanks for sharing nice information with us
    jaring futsal | jaring golf | jaring pengaman proyek |
    jaring pengaman bangunan | jaring pengaman gedung

  7. The best place to learn mandarin Chinese is in China. However, we understand that it isn't always possible to move here to study Chinese language. The next best thing is to study with our experienced teachers in a virtual classroom. Online students enjoy the same excellent way of Chinese Online Courses and custom designed courseware that we provide for our face to face clients.