Friday, October 26, 2012

Bull Trip!: GDP Report Q3 2012 (First Estimate)

Today, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released their first "estimate" of the Q3 2012 GDP report showing that the economy continued to expand with real GDP increasing at a tepid annualized rate of 2.0% from Q2 2012.

On a year-over-year basis real GDP increased 2.32% while the quarter-to-quarter non-annualized percent change was 0.50%.

The latest quarterly results indicate that the most notable source of weakness in the economy came from declining exports of goods and services, a notable decline private farm inventories and weakness in non-residential structures.

Government spending worked to buoy GDP with a 13% quarter-on-quarter increase in non-defense spending while a decline in imports of goods also added positively (declining imports contribute positively to the final GDP aggregate).

Other categories such as residential structures also saw notable slowing from the prior quarter registering a still respectable rate of 8.5% while non-residential fixed structures expand by just 0.6%. 

Keep in mind that these results are likely very poorly estimated and are sure to be revised notably in following quarters and even years to come.

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