Thursday, March 28, 2013

Bull Trip!: GDP Report Q4 2012 (Third Estimate)

Today, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released their third "estimate" of the Q4 2012 GDP report showing that the economy barely registered growth in Q4 2012 with real GDP improving at an annualized rate of just 0.4% from Q3 2012.

On a year-over-year basis, real GDP increased 1.67% while the quarter-to-quarter non-annualized percent change was an increase of a slight 0.09%.

The latest quarterly results indicate that the most notable source of weakness in the economy came from declines in exports with the "net-exports" component declining at an annualized rate of 2.8% from Q3, and notable declines in government spending particularly on national defense with a 22.1% decline in federal national defense spending from Q3.

Residential investment, on the other hand, worked to buoy the overall fixed investment component growing at an annualized rate of 17.6% from Q3.

Keep in mind that these results are likely very poorly estimated and are sure to be revised notably in following quarters and even years to come.