Wednesday, July 17, 2013

Reading Rates: MBA Application Survey – July 17 2013

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages as well as the volume of both purchase and refinance applications.

The purchase application index has been highlighted as a particularly important data series as it very broadly captures the demand side of residential real estate for both new and existing home purchases.

The latest data is showing that the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage (from FHA and conforming GSE data) went flat at 4.53% since last week while the purchase application volume increased 1% and the refinance application volume decreased 4% over the same period.

Rates have literally exploded rising a whopping 106 basis points over the past nine weeks seemingly directly correlated with the Feds recent suggestion that they may start to wind down GSE purchases later this year.

Clearly, steadily increasing rates is working to tamp down mortgage application activity but thus far, the spillover to home sales and price indicators appears minimal.

The following chart shows the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages since 2006 as well as the purchase, refinance and composite loan volumes (click for larger dynamic full-screen version).