Thursday, April 17, 2014

Hong Kong Bubble?: Hong Kong Residential Property Prices January 2014

The latest release of the University of Hong Kong's Hong Kong Residential Real Estate Series (HKU-REIS) indicating that, in January, the price of residential properties declined 2.45% since December falling 1.30% below the level seen in January 2013.

Clearly, the latest data is indicating a notable pullback in prices coming with the first year-on-year declines seen since 2009.  It will take some more data in order to see the extent of this pullback but with recent headlines indicating that China officials are loosening property and lending standards in order to control the downside risk, it appears that we may be seeing the beginnings of a notable pullback.

The HKU-REIS is a set of property price indices constructed monthly using a “modified” repeat-sale methodology similar to that of the S&P/Case-Shiller indices yet suited to the Hong Kong property market.