The HKU-REIS is a set of property price indices constructed monthly using a “modified” repeat-sale methodology similar to that of the S&P/Case-Shiller indices yet suited to the Hong Kong property market.
Friday, July 17, 2015
Hong Kong Residential Property Prices: HKU-REIS March 2015
The latest release of the University of Hong Kong's Hong Kong Residential Real Estate Series (HKU-REIS) indicating that, in March, the price of residential properties declined 1.06% since February but still remained 16.57% above the level seen in March 2014.
The HKU-REIS is a set of property price indices constructed monthly using a “modified” repeat-sale methodology similar to that of the S&P/Case-Shiller indices yet suited to the Hong Kong property market.
The HKU-REIS is a set of property price indices constructed monthly using a “modified” repeat-sale methodology similar to that of the S&P/Case-Shiller indices yet suited to the Hong Kong property market.
New Residential Construction Report: June 2015
Today’s New Residential Construction Report showed generally improving results with total permit activity rising 7.4% since May while total starts surged 9.8% over the same period.
Single family housing permits, the most leading of indicators, increased 0.9% from May to 687K single family units (SAAR), and rose 6.0% above the level seen a year earlier but still remained well below levels seen at the peak in September 2005.
Single family housing starts declined 0.9% from May to 685K single family units (SAAR) but still remained 14.7% above the level seen a year earlier.
Single family housing permits, the most leading of indicators, increased 0.9% from May to 687K single family units (SAAR), and rose 6.0% above the level seen a year earlier but still remained well below levels seen at the peak in September 2005.
Single family housing starts declined 0.9% from May to 685K single family units (SAAR) but still remained 14.7% above the level seen a year earlier.
Thursday, July 16, 2015
SNAP Food Stamp Participation: April 2015
As a logical consequence of the prolonged economic downturn, participation in the federal food stamp program is continuing to rise.
The latest data released by the Department of Agriculture indicated that in April, 202,930 individual recipients were removed from the food stamps program with the current total declining 1.75% on a year-over-year basis.
Individuals receiving food stamp benefits declined to 45.43 million which, as a ratio of the overall civilian non-institutional population now stands at a whopping 18.15% of the population.
Households receiving food stamps benefits declined to 22.39 million households with the current total falling 0.77% below the level seen a year earlier
Total nominal benefit cost declined 0.23% on a year-over-year basis to $5.75 billion for the month.
The latest data released by the Department of Agriculture indicated that in April, 202,930 individual recipients were removed from the food stamps program with the current total declining 1.75% on a year-over-year basis.
Individuals receiving food stamp benefits declined to 45.43 million which, as a ratio of the overall civilian non-institutional population now stands at a whopping 18.15% of the population.
Households receiving food stamps benefits declined to 22.39 million households with the current total falling 0.77% below the level seen a year earlier
Total nominal benefit cost declined 0.23% on a year-over-year basis to $5.75 billion for the month.
Weekly Unemployment Claims: Initial and Continued July 16 2015
Today’s jobless claims report showed declines to both initial and insured (continued) unemployment claims as seasonally adjusted initial claims remained below the 300K level.
Seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims declined by 15,000 to 281,000 claims while seasonally adjusted “insured” claims declined by 112,000 to 2.215 million resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 1.6%.
Seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims declined by 15,000 to 281,000 claims while seasonally adjusted “insured” claims declined by 112,000 to 2.215 million resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 1.6%.
Wednesday, July 15, 2015
Recession Watch: Piger and Term Spread Probabilities
For forecasting oncoming recession, from a purely statistical standpoint, we have two interesting data series to follow, the Piger Recession Probabilities and the Term Spread Probability of Recession
In the latest release of the Piger Recession Probability, the April data (... there is a reporting lag) indicates that the probability of recession has increased to 1.69%.
In 2008, Marcelle Chauvet of the University of California and Jeremy Piger of the University of Oregon published a paper titled “A Comparison of the Real-Time Performance of Business Cycle Dating Methods” which outlined two novel statistical methods (most notably the markov-switching method) for distilling recessionary turning points out of the very same macro data series that the NBER uses to make it’s cycle assessments.
As for the Term-Spread Probability of Recession, the latest data indicates that the probability for recession appears to be on the rise with the January 2016 probability (the probability that there will be a recession by that date) of 4.4%.
Spearheaded by economist Professor Arturo Estrella of the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, this method derives a probability of recession from the spread between long and short yields (10-year and 3-month) and is by all accounts the standard for recession probability forecasting.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: June 2015
Today, the Federal Reserve released their monthly read of industrial production and capacity utilization showing an increase in June with total industrial production increasing 0.33% since May and climbing 1.54% above the level seen in June 2014.
Capacity utilization also improved slightly rising 0.19% from May but falling 1.05% below the level seen in June 2014 to stand at 78.398%.
It's important to note that the last few months have seen a notable weakening trend in these measures with capacity utilization showing the first year-on-year declines since early 2010 at the start of the recovery.
It will be interesting to watch these series in the coming months to see if this is a momentary weakening or if we are possibly entering a new cyclical downturn.
Capacity utilization also improved slightly rising 0.19% from May but falling 1.05% below the level seen in June 2014 to stand at 78.398%.
It's important to note that the last few months have seen a notable weakening trend in these measures with capacity utilization showing the first year-on-year declines since early 2010 at the start of the recovery.
It will be interesting to watch these series in the coming months to see if this is a momentary weakening or if we are possibly entering a new cyclical downturn.
Reading Rates: MBA Application Survey – July 15 2015
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages as well as the volume of both purchase and refinance applications.
The purchase application index has been highlighted as a particularly important data series as it very broadly captures the demand side of residential real estate for both new and existing home purchases.
The latest data is showing that the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage (from FHA and conforming GSE data) increased 1 basis point to 4.15% since last week while the purchase application volume decreased 8% and the refinance application volume increased 4% over the same period.
The following chart shows the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages since 2006 as well as the purchase, refinance and composite loan volumes (click for larger dynamic full-screen version).
The purchase application index has been highlighted as a particularly important data series as it very broadly captures the demand side of residential real estate for both new and existing home purchases.
The latest data is showing that the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage (from FHA and conforming GSE data) increased 1 basis point to 4.15% since last week while the purchase application volume decreased 8% and the refinance application volume increased 4% over the same period.
The following chart shows the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages since 2006 as well as the purchase, refinance and composite loan volumes (click for larger dynamic full-screen version).
Thursday, July 09, 2015
Weekly Unemployment Claims: Initial and Continued July 07 2015
Today’s jobless claims report showed a an increase to both initial and insured unemployment claims as seasonally adjusted initial claims approched the 300K level.
Seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims increased 15,000 to 297,000 claims while seasonally adjusted “insured” claims increased by 69,000 to 2.334 million resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 1.7%.
Seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims increased 15,000 to 297,000 claims while seasonally adjusted “insured” claims increased by 69,000 to 2.334 million resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 1.7%.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)