Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: January 2017

Today, the Federal Reserve released their monthly read of industrial production and capacity utilization showing worsening results in January with total industrial production falling 0.25% from December and remaining flat at 0.01% above the level seen in January 2016.

Capacity utilization went declined from December dropping 0.49% below the level seen in January 2016 to stand at 75.35%.

It's important to note that industrial production is still showing significant weakness which, if all past periods were to serve at least as a rough guide, now clearly indicates notable trouble for the macro-economy.

Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: September 2016

This week, the Federal Reserve released their monthly read of industrial production and capacity utilization showing slightly improving results in September with total industrial production rising 0.06% from August but dropping 1.03% below the level seen in September 2015.

Capacity utilization went flat from August dropping 1.38% below the level seen in September 2015 to stand at 75.36%.

It's important to note that industrial production is still showing significant weakness which, if all past periods were to serve at least as a rough guide, now clearly indicates notable trouble for the macro-economy.

Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: August 2016

Today, the Federal Reserve released their monthly read of industrial production and capacity utilization showing weakening results in August with total industrial production declining 0.43% from July dropping 1.11% below the level seen in August 2015.

Capacity utilization also declined dropping 0.47% from April dropping 1.51% below the level seen in August 2015 to stand at 75.52%.

It's important to note that industrial production is still showing significant weakness which, if all past periods were to serve at least as a rough guide, now clearly indicates notable trouble for the macro-economy.

Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: May 2016

Today, the Federal Reserve released their monthly read of industrial production and capacity utilization showing weakening results in May with total industrial production declining 0.42% from April dropping 1.4% below the level seen in May 2015.

Capacity utilization also declined dropping 0.43% from April dropping 2.19% below the level seen in May 2015 to stand at 74.937%.

It's important to note that industrial production is still showing significant weakness which, if all past periods were to serve at least as a rough guide, now clearly indicates notable trouble for the macro-economy.

Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: April 2016

Today, the Federal Reserve released their monthly read of industrial production and capacity utilization showing improving results in April with total industrial production increasing 0.66% from March but falling 1.07% below the level seen in April 2015.

Capacity utilization also improved rising 0.64% from March but declined 2.04% below the level seen in April 2015 to stand at 75.381%.

It's important to note that industrial production is still showing significant weakness which, if all past periods were to serve at least as a rough guide, now clearly indicates notable trouble for the macro-economy.

Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: March 2016

Today, the Federal Reserve released their monthly read of industrial production and capacity utilization showing continued weakness in March with total industrial production declining 0.59% from February falling 2.03% below the level seen in March 2015.

Capacity utilization also weakened falling 0.66% from February declining 3.23% below the level seen in March 2015 to stand at 74.8%.

It's important to note that industrial production is still showing significant weakness which, if all past periods were to serve at least as a rough guide, now clearly indicates notable trouble for the macro-economy.

Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: February 2016

Today, the Federal Reserve released their monthly read of industrial production and capacity utilization showing continued weakness in February with total industrial production declining 0.49% from January falling 1.03% below the level seen in February 2015.

Capacity utilization also weakened falling 0.54% from January declining 2.26% below the level seen in February 2015 to stand at 76.669%.

It's important to note that industrial production is still showing significant weakness which, if all past periods were to serve at least as a rough guide, now clearly indicates notable trouble for the macro-economy.

Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: January 2016

Today, the Federal Reserve released their monthly read of industrial production and capacity utilization showing improvement in January with total industrial production increasing 0.92% since December but still declining 0.70% below the level seen in January 2015.

Capacity utilization also improved climbing 0.92% from December but still declining 2.02% below the level seen in January 2015 to stand at 77.078%.

It's important to note that industrial production is still showing significant weakness which, if all past periods were to serve at least as a rough guide, now clearly indicates notable trouble for the macro-economy.

Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: December 2015

Today, the Federal Reserve released their monthly read of industrial production and capacity utilization showing further declines in December with total industrial production declining 0.36% since November and falling 1.75% below the level seen in December 2014.

Capacity utilization also declined falling 0.48% from November and plunging 3.19% below the level seen in December 2014 to stand at 76.487%.

It's important to note that industrial production is now showing significant weakness which, if all past periods were to serve at least as a rough guide, now clearly indicates notable trouble for the macro-economy.

Yellen’s Myth (Part 1)

Notwithstanding Fed Chair Yellen’s certainty about her “myths”, recession indicators are continuing to accumulate as the current U.S. economic expansion continues to clearly trend into its twilight period.

While Yellen is apparently not able to “see anything in the underlying strength of the economy that would lead me to be concerned” about recession, let’s take a look at just a few points of interest that she clearly must have missed.

First, there has been notable protracted weakness in industrial production which is now showing a year-over-year decline of over 1%, a VERY strong indicator of fundamental weakness that is virtually always associated either directly with current or looming recession.


Additionally, both Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization have now show simultaneous notable year-over-year declines, an event that is literally associated with every recession since both data sets have been tracked.


Next, jobless claims appear to have hit the low for this expansion which, as we know from all other past expansions, generally does not stay at this level for very long.

In fact, population adjusted Continued Jobless Claims (continued claims as a percentage of non-institutional population) is at the lowest level since 1969, a strong indicator that insurance claims, and by proxy the general employment situation, has reached its best levels of the expansion.

Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: June 2015

Today, the Federal Reserve released their monthly read of industrial production and capacity utilization showing an increase in June with total industrial production increasing 0.33% since May and climbing 1.54% above the level seen in June 2014.

Capacity utilization also improved slightly rising 0.19% from May but falling 1.05% below the level seen in June 2014 to stand at 78.398%.

It's important to note that the last few months have seen a notable weakening trend in these measures with capacity utilization showing the first year-on-year declines since early 2010 at the start of the recovery.

It will be interesting to watch these series in the coming months to see if this is a momentary weakening or if we are possibly entering a new cyclical downturn.

Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: December 2014

Today, the Federal Reserve released their monthly read of industrial production and capacity utilization showing an decrease in December with total industrial production falling 0.11% since November but climbing 4.88% above the level seen in December 2013.

Capacity utilization also declined falling 0.38% from November but climbing 1.64% above the level seen in December 2013 to stand at 79.74%

Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: November 2014

Yesterday, the Federal Reserve released their monthly read of industrial production and capacity utilization showing an increase in November with total industrial production rising 1.26% since October and climbing 5.21% above the level seen in November 2013.

Capacity utilization also rose increasing 0.9% from October and 1.13% above the level seen in November 2013 to stand at 79.34%

Industrial Production: August 2014

Yesterday, the Federal Reserve released their monthly read of industrial production and capacity utilization showing a decrease in August with total industrial production falling 0.10% since July but still rising 4.12% above the level seen in August 2013.

Capacity utilization also declined falling 0.37% from July but rising 1.23% above the level seen in August 2013 to stand at 78.81%

Industrial Production: December 2013

Today, the Federal Reserve released their monthly read of industrial production and capacity utilization showing an increase in December with total industrial production climbing 0.31% since November and rising 3.68% above the level seen in December 2012.

Capacity utilization also improved climbing 0.14% from November and rising 1.81% above the level seen in December 2012 to stand at 79.20%

It's important to recognize that though the "recovery" is well over two years old, both industrial production and capacity utilization are notably below the peaks set in late 2007.

Production Pullback: Industrial Production August 2013

Today, the Federal Reserve released their monthly read of industrial production and capacity utilization showing an increase in August with total industrial production climbing 0.41% since July and rising 2.66% above the level seen in August 2012.

Capacity utilization also improved climbing 0.25% from July and rising 0.83% above the level seen in August 2012 to stand at 77.84%

It's important to recognize that though the "recovery" is well over two years old, both industrial production and capacity utilization are notably below the peaks set in late 2007.

Production Pullback: Industrial Production June 2013

Today, the Federal Reserve released their monthly read of industrial production and capacity utilization showing an increase in June with total industrial production climbing 0.31% since May and rising 1.98% above the level seen in June 2012.

Capacity utilization also improved climbing 0.17% from May and rising 0.18% above the level seen in June 2012 to stand at 77.84%

It's important to recognize that though the "recovery" is well over two years old, both industrial production and capacity utilization are notably below the peaks set in late 2007.

Production Pullback: Industrial Production March 2013

Today, the Federal Reserve released their monthly read of industrial production and capacity utilization showing an increase in March with total industrial production climbing 0.41% since February and rising 3.47% above the level seen in March 2012.

Capacity utilization also improved climbing 0.26% from February rising 1.53% above the level seen in March of 2012 to stand at 78.48%

It's important to recognize that though the "recovery" is well over two years old, both industrial production and capacity utilization are notably below the peaks set in late 2007.

Production Pullback: Industrial Production February 2013

Today, the Federal Reserve released their monthly read of industrial production and capacity utilization showing a notable increase in February with total industrial production climbing 0.71% since January and rising 2.52% above the level seen in February 2012.

Capacity utilization also rise climbing 0.55% from January rising 0.83% above the level seen in February of 2012 to stand at 79.63%

It's important to recognize that though the "recovery" is well over two years old, both industrial production and capacity utilization are notably below the peaks set in late 2007.

Production Pullback: Industrial Production January 2013

Today, the Federal Reserve released their monthly read of industrial production and capacity utilization showing a decline in January with total industrial production falling 0.10% since December but rising 2.10% above the level seen in January 2012.

Capacity utilization also declined dropping 0.27% from December but still climbing a slight 0.46% above the level seen in January of 2012 to stand at 79.06%

It's important to recognize that though the "recovery" is well over two years old, both industrial production and capacity utilization are notably below the peaks set in late 2007.