The Chicago Fed National Activity Index: June 2017

The latest release of the Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index (CFNAI) indicated that national economic activity improved in June with the index rising to a level of 0.13 from a weak level of -0.30 a month earlier while the three month moving average rose to a level of 0.06.

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity collected into four overall categories of “production and income”, “employment, unemployment and income”, “personal consumption and housing” and “sales, orders and inventories”.

The Chicago Fed regards a value of zero for the total index as indicating that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate while a negative value indicates below average growth.

A value at or below -0.70 for the three month moving average of the national activity index (CFNAI-MA3) indicates that the national economy has either just entered or continues in recession.

FHFA Monthly Home Prices: May 2017

Recently, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) released the latest results of their monthly house price index (HPI) showing that in May, nationally, home prices increased 0.39% from April rising 6.86% above the level seen in May 2016.

The FHFA monthly HPI are formulated from home purchase information collected from mortgages that have been sold to or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

S&P Core Logic Case-Shiller: May 2017

The latest release of the S&P Core Logic Case-Shiller (CSI) home price indices for May reported that the non-seasonally adjusted National index increased from April with prices rising 0.97% while the non-seasonally adjusted Composite-10 city index increased 0.70% and the Composite-20 city index increased 0.81% over the same period.

On an annual basis, the National index increased 5.58% above the level seen in May 2016 while the Composite-10 city index increased 4.94% and the Composite-20 city index increased 5.69% over the same period.

On a peak basis, the non-seasonally adjusted National index recently surpassed the record high level seen prior the onset of the Great Recession rising 3.24% above the level seen in 2006 while the Composite-10 index remained -6.19% below the peak level and the Composite-20 remained -3.66% below.

Existing Home Sales Report: June 2017

Recently, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Existing Home Sales Report for June showing a decline with total home sales falling 1.8% since May but climbing 0.7% above the level seen a year earlier.

Single family home sales also declined with sales falling 2.0% from May but rising 0.6% above the level seen a year earlier while the median selling price increased 5.1% over the same period.

Inventory of single family homes went flat from May at 1.74 million units, falling 7.4% below the level seen in June 2016 which, along with the sales pace, resulted in a monthly supply of 4.3 months.

The following charts (click for full-screen dynamic version) shows national existing single family home sales, median home prices, inventory and months of supply.