The Arlington Artifice: May 2009

This recurring monthly post tracks the latest results of the housing market seen in Arlington Massachusetts.

I choose Arlington as a result of the Boston Globe’s (relatively) recently published and absurdly anecdotal and ludicrous farce about the town’s “hot” housing market.

The ridiculous tone and outright mishandling of the housing data by the Boston Globe “reporter” would almost be comical if it weren’t for the fact that the Globe’s editor, Martin Baron, ALSO blundered seriously when he responded to my email about the discrepancies.

Baron attempted to justify the articles contents and in so doing, he disclosed his disgracefully poor abilities with even the most basic economic data.

I suppose this shouldn’t come as a surprise given that Baron also appears to be presiding over the final days of his sorry paper.

Why would an editor of a nationally recognized newspaper think that a single town would continue to function as an isolated bubble amongst a backdrop of the most significant nationwide housing recession since the Great Depression?

IMPORTANT NOTE: In anticipation of its final demise, I’m putting together some ideas for a public celebration of the death of the Boston Globe… I’m thinking this could be an informal park gathering (... possibly on the Greenway?) the weekend after they close down… could be a couple of quarters away of course, but readers are encouraged to email ideas.

***

Last I checked-in the spring had just sprung… still a bit chilly… the ground frosty and hard in the early morning… the smell of Realtor ambition could almost be teased from the air surrounding Arlington, Belmont, Lexington and the other “hot” Boston metro-area towns.

And what’s so wrong with ambition?!

Just thinking of all the cabbage that gets siphoned off of those spring transactions almost has ME wanting to get a broker license!

Ahh… Spring… Suckertime in the residential property markets!

But yet… how short this annual phenomena is… come July and your firmly on the down-slope.

Not many families want to move into a new home with the closing day beyond the start of the school year and besides… everyone is on vacation.

So the fervor starts to die down and by mid-August the market slips firmly into “Slows-ville”… a place where it will stay, getting progressively slower, for the remainder of the year…

Such is life for the Northeast property markets… you take your ups with your downs every year!

And what a year we are having here in Boston.

Of course if you read the Boston Globe your walking around spouting off junk concepts like “Boston area housing is still hot!... we have only seen 3% price declines in the Boston metro-markets… Luxury condos are still all the rage!... Cambridge has actually seen prices go up since the bust!“

But in reality (…i.e. the place where advertiser dollars don’t distort the truth and lead to a raft of junk articles intended to fluff everyone from agents to nincompoop buyers to the residents of Boston’s condo-laden phony-baloney arts and cultural districts…) this season has been one of the worst on record.

Sales are at historic lows… below the level seen even last year… prices of both single family homes and condos are continuing to fall… woeful tales of tightened credit availability are getting almost as numerous as the numerous accounts of bubble-era euphoria… it’s obvious that this is going to be a long hard slog.

In any event…

The May results give clear indication that 2009 will be historically slow with the year-to-date sales count falling to nearly the lowest level on record for Arlington (just two sales above 1990) and FAR BELOW the lowest level seen for the Arlington-Belmont-Bedford-Cambridge-Lexington aggregate.

Median prices, though volatile with the low sales counts, are falling dramatically too.

Arlington’s May median selling price dropped a stunning 17.88% to $407,750 while the year-to-date median fell 9.85% to $453,500.

The following chart (click for much larger version) shows a history of Arlington’s May median sales price since 1988 along with the annual outcome.

The next chart (click for much larger version) shows that annual home sales in Arlington (left axis) have fluctuated in a range between 233 and 381 over the last 21 years with the peak selling year being 1998.

Notice that monthly and year-to-date sales (right axis) are very near the lowest levels seen on record.

The final chart shows how the year-to-date median sales price and combined sale count for Arlington, Bedford, Belmont, Cambridge and Lexington have changed since 1988.

All towns registered modesty lower to exceptionally low sales and most showed declining median selling prices compared to last year.

Notice that while Cambridge shows increasing median selling prices, this outcome is simply a result of the EXCEPTIONALLY the low number of sales in Cambridge… currently 46.8% BELOW the lowest levels ever recorded… this is the problem inherent in the median selling price figure… when the number of sales are low the median selling price can jump wildly up or down and further, gives no real insight into the true price movement of the areas housing stock.

The Arlington Artifice: March 2009

Subtitle: Living it Up at The Hard Times Cafe!

This recurring monthly post tracks the latest results of the housing market seen in Arlington Massachusetts.

I choose Arlington as a result of the Boston Globe’s (relatively) recently published and absurdly anecdotal and ludicrous farce about the town’s “hot” housing market.

The ridiculous tone and outright mishandling of the housing data by the Boston Globe “reporter” would almost be comical if it weren’t for the fact that the Globe’s editor, Martin Baron, ALSO blundered seriously when he responded to my email about the discrepancies.

Baron attempted to justify the articles contents and in so doing, he disclosed his disgracefully poor abilities with even the most basic economic data.

I suppose this shouldn’t come as a surprise given that Baron also appears to be presiding over the final days of his sorry paper.

Why would an editor of a nationally recognized newspaper think that a single town would continue to function as an isolated bubble amongst a backdrop of the most significant nationwide housing recession since the Great Depression?

***

Ahh… Springtime in the Boston suburbs… Still a bit cold and rainy of course but you can almost feel the local Realtor anticipation welling up for the reemergence of the rush of “greater fools”… but I’m sure this year there is also some trepidation… and for good reason.

All current indications are suggesting that this is going to be a particularly… possibly historically… bad year for sellers and brokers of residential real estate.

The local job market is horrible and eroding fast with unemployment at 6.6% (and climbing) for Middlesex county and 7.8% for the state overall… The “values” of both single family homes and condos are plunging… the stock market remains weak and likely heading back to the lows while simultaneously halving most area residents’ retirement accounts… The state and local governments are running up against serious fiscal shortfalls… crime is up…

And Arlington… Oh sweet Arlington… for a brief moment in time an enclave for young and trendy upwardly mobile dual income professionals looking to “one up” each other with borrowed loot (but much deserved of course… they don’t give just anyone all that dough!) … now you too face the troubled times we live.

Yes, the town where “round robin bidding wars” were once all the rage is now looking more like it’s going “retro” … reverting back to its 70s and 80s rough-and-tumbly self…. Smack and Pocket Change!

Did you hear the news!? Bagles By Us has opened the “Hard Times Café” featuring the “Recession Buster Breakfast”, a $3.99 breakfast served all day every week day.

Now I’ll be darned… How Medfordy… and right at the foothills of Jason Heights too!

I suppose even the chic and trendy like a cheap meal every once and a while… or maybe they need it…

In any event…

The March results give clear indication that 2009 could be historically slow with the monthly sales count falling to the lowest level of any March on record and the year-to-date sales count hovering just above the 1991 record.

Median prices too fell dramatically.

The March median selling price dropped a stunning 32.69% to $363,500 while the year-to-date median now stands at $476,500.

The following chart (click for much larger version) shows a history of Arlington’s January median sales price since 1988 along with the annual outcome.

The next chart (click for much larger version) shows that annual home sales in Arlington have fluctuated in a range between 233 and 381 over the last 21 years with the peak selling year being 1998.

The final chart shows how the year-to-date median sales price and combined sale count for Arlington, Bedford, Belmont, Cambridge and Lexington have changed since 1988.

All towns registered modesty lower to exceptionally low sales and most showed declining median selling prices compared to last year.

The Arlington Artifice: January 2009

Subtitle: The Re-Medfordization of Arlington

This recurring monthly post tracks the latest results of the housing market seen in Arlington Massachusetts.

I choose Arlington as a result of the Boston Globe’s (relatively) recently published and absurdly anecdotal and ludicrous farce about the town’s “hot” housing market.

The ridiculous tone and outright mishandling of the housing data by the Boston Globe “reporter” would almost be comical if it weren’t for the fact that the Globe’s editor, Martin Baron, ALSO blundered seriously when he responded to my email about the discrepancies.

Baron attempted to justify the articles contents and in so doing, he disclosed his disgracefully poor abilities with even the most basic economic data.

I suppose this shouldn’t come as a surprise given that Baron also appears to be presiding over the final days of his sorry paper.

Why would an editor of a nationally recognized newspaper think that a single town would continue to function as an isolated bubble amongst a backdrop of the most significant nationwide housing recession since the Great Depression?

Longtime Boston area residents will note that Arlington hasn’t always had the brand recognition and loyalty it currently enjoys.

In fact, if the clock was turned back a mere 20 years, there is a good chance that many current residents would scarcely recognize the place… or more accurately… they would recognize the place as present day Medford.

You see… Arlington experienced tremendous growth during the 90s internet boom as young families sought its desirable location and outstanding (presumed…) school system.

Now though, it looks as though Arlington is, more or less, a perfect representation of a town struggling with our secular bear market economy.

Its housing market has essentially been eroding since the peak of the internet economy and not even the unusual conditions of the housing bubble could bring back the outstanding growth experienced during that era.

Further, merely peruse the latest events in the Arlington Advocate and you can see the town is now feeling the social effects of the economic downshift about as powerfully, but inversely, as it experienced the 90s-era booming economic uplift.

Increasing crime appears to now have become so notable that the town’s Police officers recently celebrated their acts of heroism revealing to the public just a small sample of the mayhem that they now deal with on a daily basis including armed gunmen, bank robberies and break-ins.

This should not be surprising.

For years Medford and Arlington were like two peas in a pod but given a sufficient supply of marginally affluent dual-income couples all with the want of the best things their credit could afford and their heads just filled with fictional stories of better school systems and the like, the two towns parted ways with sharp economic divisions being draw between their boarders (much to the chagrin of the sorry West-Medforites... but that's another story altogether!).

Now though, a relative re-balancing of sorts is taking place and although Medford will likely continue its slide into economic malaise with widespread foreclosure activity and all its associated fallout, Arlington is playing catch-up and fast.

With the economy headed into likely the worst recessionary years of the post-WWII period, it will be interesting to watch how this firmly middle class suburban town copes.

In January, there was a slight bump up in single family home sales with six more homes trading hands compared to January 2008 while the median selling price remained flat at $475,250.

It’s important to remember that the median selling price is derived from taking the middle sale of the collection of all home sales in a certain period.

In this way, more sales will generally result in a more accurate (compared to other home value measures) median reading.

Therefore, until there are a sufficient number of sales for the year, the median will tend to jump wildly around.

The following chart (click for much larger version) shows a history of Arlington’s January median sales price since 1988 along with the annual outcome.

The next chart (click for much larger version) shows that annual home sales in Arlington have fluctuated in a range between 233 and 381 over the last 21 years with the peak selling year being 1998.

The final chart shows how the year-to-date median sales price and combined sale count for Arlington, Bedford, Belmont, Cambridge and Lexington have changed since 1988.

All towns registered modesty lower to exceptionally low sales and all showed declining median selling prices compared to last year.

The Arlington Artifice: December 2008

This recurring monthly post tracks the latest results of the housing market seen in Arlington Massachusetts.

I choose Arlington as a result of the Boston Globe’s relatively recently published and absurdly anecdotal and ludicrous farce about the town’s “hot” housing market.

The ridiculous tone and outright mishandling of the housing data by the Boston Globe “reporter” would almost be comical if it weren’t for the fact that the Globe’s editor, Martin Baron, ALSO blundered seriously when he responded to my email about the discrepancies.

Baron attempted to justify the articles contents and in so doing, he disclosed his disgracefully poor and obviously unsophisticated abilities with even the most basic economic data.

The December results again confirm that Arlington is by no means a “stand out” amongst its neighboring towns as Baron suggested in his email and, in fact, is following along on a path wholly consistent with the trend seen in the county, state, region and nation.

Why would an editor of a nationally recognized newspaper think that a single town would continue to function as an isolated bubble amongst a backdrop of the most significant nationwide housing recession since the Great Depression?

As I have shown in my prior posts, this data when charted and compared to other towns in the region proves there are absolutely no grounds to call Arlington’s market exceptional.

The most notable feature of the recent results is unquestionably the low number of home sales with only 248 sales for the entire year, a 20.51% decline as compared to 2007 and the lowest readings since the recessionary period of 1990.

Another important point to remember is that when sales decline dramatically the median selling price can jump wildly up or down since the small number of sales provides a small set with which to determine the “middle” selling price.

The following chart (click for much larger version) shows a history of Arlington’s December median sales price since 1988 along with the annual outcome.

Regular readers will notice that the “year-to-date” median selling price, a more accurate median indicator, has declined significantly from where it stood earlier in the year as the number of home sales have slowly accumulated and now stands at $475,000.

Although my expectation was for the median to drop “well below $470,000” by the end of the year, the full year outcome of $475,000 was essentially flat compared to 2007 and remains well within the bubble reversion to the mean thesis.

All towns, except for Cambridge which had an exceptionally low number of single family home sales in 2008, registered flat to declining median selling prices which, as this post makes so clear, further indicates that Arlington is no “stand out” amongst its peers.

The next chart (click for much larger version) shows that annual home sales in Arlington have fluctuated in a range between 233 and 381 over the last 21 years with the peak selling year being 1998.

This is not such a surprising result for those that have observed Arlington’s real estate market over the last two decades.

Arlington experienced tremendous growth during the 90s internet boom as young families sought its desirable location and outstanding (presumed…) school system.

Now though, it looks as if Arlington is, more or less, a perfect representation of a town struggling with our secular bear market economy.

Its housing market has essentially been eroding since the peak of the internet economy and not even the unusual conditions of the housing bubble could bring back the outstanding growth experienced during that era.

In recent years, Arlington has found itself falling behind with state cutbacks and lower property tax revenues leading to public funding stress and particularly the postponement of the much needed renovation of two dilapidated schools.

It’s important to note that the dilapidated schools happen to reside in the school districts generally considered to be the lower income areas of the town.

In fact, the higher income sections of the town, particularly the Brackett school district, were fortunate enough to get their schools completely redeveloped in “world class” style before the funding dried up.

As you can imagine, the quality of the school buildings in the lower income areas are not the only elements of those districts to have suffered with students producing notably lower MCAS scores and one school even receiving a designation of a “year 1 improvement plan” by the state department of education.

This type of blatant favoritism breeds discontent and, internally, the town’s residents have struggled with the issue of fairness.

This week an armed gunman even reined terror down on the residents of his Arlington neighborhood as he walked down his street brandishing his weapon in menacing style, threatening neighbors and even local police before being apprehended.

With the economy headed into likely the worst recessionary years of the post-WWII period, it will be interesting to watch how this firmly middle class suburban town copes.

The final chart shows how the year-to-date median sales price and combined sale count for Arlington, Bedford, Belmont, Cambridge and Lexington have changed since 1988.

Notice again that as sales have mounted for the year, the median values are looking generally flat to trending down.

In review, the data shows that there is nothing exceptional about Arlington’s housing market proving clearly that the claims made in the Boston Globe article and later endorsed by its editor Martin Baron were entirely erroneous.

The Arlington Artifice: November 2008

This recurring monthly post tracks the latest results of the housing market seen in Arlington Massachusetts.

I choose Arlington as a result of the Boston Globe’s recently published and absurdly anecdotal and ludicrous farce about the town’s “hot” housing market.

The ridiculous tone and outright mishandling of the housing data by the Boston Globe “reporter” would almost be comical if it weren’t for the fact that the Globe’s editor, Martin Baron, ALSO blundered seriously when he responded to my email about the discrepancies.

Baron attempted to justify the articles contents and in so doing, he disclosed his disgracefully poor and obviously unsophisticated abilities with even the most basic economic data.
The November results again confirm that Arlington is by no means a “stand out” amongst its neighboring towns as Baron suggested in his email and, in fact, is following along on a path wholly consistent with the trend seen in the county, state, region and nation.

Why would an editor of a nationally recognized newspaper think that a single town would continue to function as an isolated bubble amongst a backdrop of the most significant nationwide housing recession since the Great Depression?

As I have shown in my prior posts, this data when charted and compared to other towns in the region proves there are absolutely no grounds to call Arlington’s market exceptional.

The most notable feature of the recent results is unquestionably the low number of home sales with only 231 sales for the entire year to date, the lowest readings since the recessionary period of 1990.

Another important point to remember is that when sales decline dramatically the median selling price can jump wildly up or down since the small number of sales provides a small set with which to determine the “middle” selling price.

The following chart (click for much larger version) shows a history of Arlington’s November median sales price since 1988 along with the annual outcome.

Regular readers will notice that the “year-to-date” median selling price, a more accurate median indicator, has declined significantly from where it stood earlier in the year as the number of home sales have slowly accumulated and now stands at $475,000.

My expectation, now that we are in the weakest season for home sales, is for the median selling price to slide well below $470,000 by the end of the year.

The next chart (click for much larger version) shows that annual home sales in Arlington have fluctuated in a range between 233 and 381 over the last 21 years with the peak selling year being 1998.

This is not such a surprising result for those that have observed Arlington’s real estate market over the last two decades.

Arlington experienced tremendous growth during the 90s internet boom as young families sought its desirable location and outstanding (presumed…) school system.

Now though, it looks as though Arlington is, more or less, a perfect representation of a town struggling with our secular bear market economy.

Its housing market has essentially been eroding since the peak of the internet economy and not even the unusual conditions of the housing bubble could bring back the outstanding growth experienced during that era.

In recent years, Arlington has found itself falling behind with state cutbacks and lower property tax revenues leading to public funding stress and particularly the postponement of the much needed renovation of two dilapidated schools.

Further, the MCAS scores (a much followed measure of academic achievement of lack thereof) of some of the towns elementary schools have been in decline for multiple years with at least one Arlington school being designated for the development of a “year 1 improvement plan” by the state department of education.

With the economy headed into likely its worst recessionary years of the post-WWII period, it will be interesting to watch how this firmly middle class suburban town copes.

The final chart shows how the year-to-date median sales price and combined sale count for Arlington, Bedford, Belmont, Cambridge and Lexington have changed since 1988.

Notice again that as sales have mounted for the year, the median values are looking generally flat to trending down.

My expectation is that all the towns except for Cambridge (which will likely be flat to modestly up on record low number of single family sales) will have lower medians than 2007.

In review, the data shows that there is nothing exceptional about Arlington’s housing market proving clearly that the claims made in the Boston Globe article and later endorsed by its editor Martin Baron were entirely erroneous.

The Arlington Artifice: October 2008

This recurring monthly post tracks the latest results of the housing market seen in Arlington Massachusetts.

I choose Arlington as a result of the Boston Globe’s recently published and absurdly anecdotal and ludicrous farce about the town’s “hot” housing market.

The ridiculous tone and outright mishandling of the housing data by the Boston Globe “reporter” would almost be comical if it weren’t for the fact that the Globe’s editor, Martin Baron, ALSO blundered seriously when he responded to my email about the discrepancies.

Baron attempted to justify the articles contents and in so doing, he disclosed his disgracefully poor and obviously unsophisticated abilities with even the most basic economic data.

The October results again confirm that Arlington is by no means a “stand out” amongst its neighboring towns as Baron suggested in his email and, in fact, is following along on a path wholly consistent with the trend seen in the county, state, region and nation.

Why would an editor of a nationally recognized newspaper think that a single town would continue to function as an isolated bubble amongst a backdrop of the most significant nationwide housing recession since the Great Depression?

As I have shown in my prior posts, this data when charted and compared to other towns in the region proves there are absolutely no grounds to call Arlington’s market exceptional.

The most notable feature of the recent results is unquestionably the low number of home sales with only 221 sales for the entire year to date, the lowest readings since the recessionary period of 1990.

Another important point to remember is that when sales decline dramatically the median selling price can jump wildly up or down since the small number of sales provides a small set with which to determine the “middle” selling price.

The following chart (click for much larger version) shows a history of Arlington’s October median sales price since 1988 along with the annual outcome.

Regular readers will notice that the “year-to-date” median selling price, a more accurate median indicator, has declined significantly from where it stood earlier in the year as the number of home sales have slowly accumulated and now stands at $475,000.

My expectation, now that we are in the weakest season for home sales, is for the median selling price to slide well below $470,000 by the end of the year.

The next chart (click for much larger version) shows that home sales in Arlington have been essentially flat during the last 15 years, a result that is generally to be expected when looking only at the sales of one town in isolation.

That being said though, Arlington has seen only 221 home sales this year, the lowest result on record since 1991.

The final chart shows how the year-to-date median sales price and combined sale count for Arlington, Bedford, Belmont, Cambridge and Lexington have changed since 1988.

Notice again that as sales have mounted for the year, the median values are looking generally flat to trending down.

My expectation is that all the towns except for Cambridge (which will likely be flat to modestly up on an extremely low number of single family sales) will have lower medians than 2007.

In review, the data shows that there is nothing exceptional about Arlington’s housing market proving clearly that the claims made in the Boston Globe article and later endorsed by its editor Martin Baron were entirely erroneous.

The Arlington Artifice: September 2008

This recurring monthly post tracks the latest results of the housing market seen in Arlington Massachusetts.

I choose Arlington as a result of the Boston Globe’s recently published and absurdly anecdotal and ludicrous farce about the town’s “hot” housing market.

The ridiculous tone and outright mishandling of the housing data by the Boston Globe “reporter” would almost be comical if it weren’t for the fact that the Globe’s editor, Martin Baron, ALSO blundered seriously when he responded to my email about the discrepancies.

Baron attempted to justify the articles contents and in so doing, he disclosed his disgracefully poor and obviously unsophisticated abilities with even the most basic economic data.

The September results again confirm that Arlington is by no means a “stand out” amongst its neighboring towns as Baron suggested in his email and, in fact, is following along on a path wholly consistent with the trend seen in the county, state, region and nation.

Why would an editor of a nationally recognized newspaper think that a single town would continue to function as an isolated bubble amongst a backdrop of the most significant nationwide housing recession since the Great Depression?

As I have shown in my prior posts, this data when charted and compared to other towns in the region proves there are absolutely no grounds to call Arlington’s market exceptional.

The most notable feature of the recent results is unquestionably the low number of home sales with only 206 sales for the entire year to date, the lowest readings since the recessionary period of 1991.

Another important point to remember is that when sales decline dramatically the median selling price can jump wildly up or down since the small number of sales provides a small set with which to determine the “middle” selling price.

The following chart (click for much larger version) shows a history of Arlington’s July median sales price since 1988 along with the annual outcome.

Regular readers will notice that the “year-to-date” median selling price, a more accurate median indicator, has either declined or remained flat through the typically strong spring and summer selling season as the number of home sales have slowly accumulated and now stands at $478,000.

My expectation, now that we are in the weakest season for home sales, is for the median selling price to slide well below $470,000 by the end of the year.

The next chart (click for much larger version) shows that home sales in Arlington have been essentially flat during the last 15 years, a result that is generally to be expected when looking only at the sales of one town in isolation. That being said though, Arlington has seen only 206 home sales this year, the lowest result on record since 1991.

The final chart shows how the year-to-date median sales price and combined sale count for Arlington, Bedford, Belmont, Cambridge and Lexington have changed since 1988. Notice again that because of the low sales count the current median price data is very volatile jumping radically up or down for each of town.

In review, the data shows that there is nothing exceptional about Arlington’s housing market proving clearly that the claims made in the Boston Globe article and later endorsed by its editor Martin Baron were entirely erroneous.

The Arlington Artifice: August 2008

This recurring monthly post tracks the latest results of the housing market seen in Arlington Massachusetts.

I choose Arlington as a result of the Boston Globe’s recently published and absurdly anecdotal and ludicrous farce about the town’s “hot” housing market.

The ridiculous tone and outright mishandling of the housing data by the Boston Globe “reporter” would almost be comical if it weren’t for the fact that the Globe’s editor, Martin Baron, ALSO blundered seriously when he responded to my email about the discrepancies.

Baron attempted to justify the articles contents and in so doing, he disclosed his disgracefully poor and obviously unsophisticated abilities with even the most basic economic data.

The August results again confirm that Arlington is by no means a “stand out” amongst its neighboring towns as Baron suggested in his email and, in fact, is following along on a path wholly consistent with the trend seen in the county, state, region and nation.

Why would an editor of a nationally recognized newspaper think that a single town would continue to function as an isolated bubble amongst a backdrop of the most significant nationwide housing recession since the Great Depression?

As I have shown in my prior posts, this data when charted and compared to other towns in the region proves there are absolutely no grounds to call Arlington’s market exceptional.

The most notable feature of the recent results is unquestionably the low number of home sales with only 187 sales for the entire year to date, the lowest readings since the recessionary period of 1991.

Another important point to remember is that when sales decline dramatically the median selling price can jump wildly up or down since the small number of sales provides a small set with which to determine the “middle” selling price.

The following chart (click for much larger version) shows a history of Arlington’s July median sales price since 1988 along with the annual outcome.

Regular readers will notice that the “year-to-date” median selling price, a more accurate median indicator, has either declined or remained flat through the typically strong spring and summer selling season as the number of home sales have slowly accumulated and now stands at $485,000.

My expectation, now that we are in the weakest season for home sales, is for the median selling price to slide well below $470,000 by the end of the year.

The next chart (click for much larger version) shows that home sales in Arlington have been essentially flat during the last 15 years, a result that is generally to be expected when looking only at the sales of one town in isolation.

That being said though, Arlington has seen only 187 home sales this year, the lowest result on record since 1991.

The final chart shows how the year-to-date median sales price and combined sale count for Arlington, Bedford, Belmont, Cambridge and Lexington has changed since 1988. Notice again that because of the low sales count the current median price data is very volatile jumping radically up or down for each of town.

In review, the data shows that there is nothing exceptional about Arlington’s housing market proving clearly that the claims made in the Boston Globe article and later endorsed by its editor Martin Baron were entirely erroneous.

The Arlington Artifice: July 2008

This recurring monthly post tracks the latest results of the housing market seen in Arlington Massachusetts.

I choose Arlington as a result of the Boston Globe’s recently published and absurdly anecdotal and ludicrous farce about the town’s “hot” housing market.

The ridiculous tone and outright mishandling of the housing data by the Boston Globe “reporter” would almost be comical if it weren’t for the fact that the Globe’s editor, Martin Baron, ALSO blundered seriously when he responded to my email about the discrepancies.

Baron attempted to justify the articles contents and in so doing, he disclosed his disgracefully poor and obviously unsophisticated abilities with even the most basic economic data.

The July results again confirm that Arlington is by no means a “stand out” amongst its neighboring towns as Baron suggested in his email and, in fact, is following along on a path wholly consistent with the trend seen in the county, state, region and nation.

Why would an editor of a nationally recognized newspaper think that a single town would continue to function as an isolated bubble amongst a backdrop of the most significant nationwide housing recession since the Great Depression?

As I have shown in my prior posts, this data when charted and compared to other towns in the region proves there are absolutely no grounds to call Arlington’s market exceptional.

The most notable feature of the recent results is unquestionably the low number of home sales with only 152 sales for the entire year to date, the lowest readings since the recessionary period of 1989.

Another important point to remember is that when sales decline dramatically the median selling price can jump wildly up or down since the small number of sales provides a small set with which to determine the “middle” selling price.

The following chart (click for much larger version) shows a history of Arlington’s July median sales price since 1988 along with the annual outcome.

Regular readers will notice that the “year-to-date” median selling price, a more accurate median indicator, has continued to decline as the number of home sales have slowly accumulated and now stands at $485,000.

My expectation is for the median selling price to be well below $470,000 by the end of the year.

The next chart (click for much larger version) shows that home sales in Arlington have been essentially flat during the last 15 years, a result that is generally to be expected when looking only at the sales of one town in isolation. That being said though, Arlington has seen only 152 home sales this year, the lowest result on record since 1989.

The final chart shows how the year-to-date median sales price and combined sale count for Arlington, Bedford, Belmont, Cambridge and Lexington has changed since 1988. Notice again that because of the low sales count the current median price data is very volatile jumping radically up or down for each of town.

In review, the data shows that there is nothing exceptional about Arlington’s housing market proving clearly that the claims made in the Boston Globe article and later endorsed by its editor Martin Baron were entirely erroneous.

The Arlington Artifice: June 2008

This recurring monthly post tracks the latest results of the housing market seen in Arlington Massachusetts.

I choose Arlington as a result of the Boston Globe’s recently published and absurdly anecdotal and ludicrous farce about the town’s “hot” housing market.

The ridiculous tone and outright mishandling of the housing data by the Boston Globe “reporter” would almost be comical if it weren’t for the fact that the Globe’s editor, Martin Baron, ALSO blundered seriously when he responded to my email about the discrepancies.

Baron attempted to justify the articles contents and in so doing, he disclosed his disgracefully poor and obviously unsophisticated abilities with even the most basic economic data.

The June results again confirm that Arlington is by no means a “stand out” amongst its neighboring towns as Baron suggested in his email and, in fact, is following along on a path wholly consistent with the trend seen in the county, state, region and nation.

Why would an editor of a nationally recognized newspaper think that a single town would continue to function as an isolated bubble amongst a backdrop of the most significant nationwide housing recession since the Great Depression?

As I have shown in my prior posts, this data when charted and compared to other towns in the region proves there are absolutely no grounds to call Arlington’s market exceptional.

The most notable feature of the June results is unquestionably the low number of home sales with only 119 sales for the entire year to date, the lowest readings since the recessionary period of 1990.

Another important point to remember is that when sales decline dramatically the median selling price can jump wildly up or down since the small number of sales provides a small set with which to determine the “middle” selling price.

The following chart (click for much larger version) shows a history of Arlington’s June median sales price since 1988 along with the annual outcome.

Regular readers will notice that the “year-to-date” median selling price, a more accurate median indicator, has continued to decline as the number of home sales have slowly accumulated and now stands at $495,000.

My expectation is for the median selling price to be well below $470,000 by the end of the year.

The next chart (click for much larger version) shows that home sales in Arlington have been essentially flat during the last 15 years, a result that is generally to be expected when looking only at the sales of one town in isolation. That being said though, Arlington has seen only 119 home sales this year, the lowest result on record since 1991.

The final chart shows how the year-to-date median sales price and combined sale count for Arlington, Bedford, Belmont, Cambridge and Lexington has changed since 1988.
Notice again that because of the low sales count the current median price data is very volatile jumping radically up or down for each of town.

In review, the data shows that there is nothing exceptional about Arlington’s housing market proving clearly that the claims made in the Boston Globe article and later endorsed by its editor Martin Baron were entirely erroneous.

The Arlington Artifice: May 2008

This recurring monthly post tracks the latest results of the housing market seen in Arlington Massachusetts.

I choose Arlington as a result of the Boston Globe’s recently published and absurdly anecdotal and ludicrous farce about the town’s “hot” housing market.

The ridiculous tone and outright mishandling of the housing data by the Boston Globe “reporter” would almost be comical if it weren’t for the fact that the Globe’s editor, Martin Baron, ALSO blundered seriously when he responded to my email about the discrepancies.

Baron attempted to justify the articles contents and in so doing, he disclosed his disgracefully poor and obviously unsophisticated abilities with even the most basic economic data.

The May results again confirm that Arlington is by no means a “stand out” amongst its neighboring towns as Baron suggested in his email and, in fact, is following along on a path wholly consistent with the trend seen in the county, state, region and nation.

Why would an editor of a nationally recognized newspaper think that a single town would continue to function as an isolated bubble amongst a backdrop of the most significant nationwide housing recession since the Great Depression?

As I have shown in my prior posts, this data when charted and compared to other towns in the region proves there are absolutely no grounds to call Arlington’s market exceptional.

The most notable feature of the May results is unquestionably the low number of home sales with only 83 sales for the entire year to date, the lowest readings since the recessionary period of 1991.

Another important point to remember is that when sales decline dramatically the median selling price can jump wildly up or down since the small number of sales provides a small set with which to determine the “middle” selling price.

The following chart (click for much larger version) shows a history of Arlington’s May median sales price since 1988 along with the annual outcome.

Regular readers will notice that the “year-to-date” median selling price, a more accurate median indicator, has continued to decline as the number of home sales have slowly accumulated and now stands at $503,000.

My expectation is for the median selling price to be well below $470,000 by the end of the year.

The next chart (click for much larger version) shows that home sales in Arlington have been essentially flat during the last 15 years, a result that is generally to be expected when looking only at the sales of one town in isolation. That being said though, Arlington has seen only 83 home sales this year, the lowest result on record since 1991.

The final chart shows how the year-to-date median sales price and combined sale count for Arlington, Bedford, Belmont, Cambridge and Lexington has changed since 1988. Notice again that because of the low sales count the current median price data is very volatile jumping radically up or down for each of town.

In review, the data shows that there is nothing exceptional about Arlington’s housing market proving clearly that the claims made in the Boston Globe article and later endorsed by its editor Martin Baron were entirely erroneous.

The Arlington Artifice: April 2008

This recurring monthly post tracks the latest results of the housing market seen in Arlington Massachusetts.

I choose Arlington as a result of the Boston Globe’s recently published and absurdly anecdotal and ludicrous farce about the town’s “hot” housing market.

The ridiculous tone and outright mishandling of the housing data by the Boston Globe “reporter” would almost be comical if it weren’t for the fact that the Globe’s editor, Martin Baron, ALSO blundered seriously when he responded to my email about the discrepancies.

Baron attempted to justify the articles contents and in so doing, he disclosed his disgracefully poor and obviously unsophisticated abilities with even the most basic economic data.

The March results again confirm that Arlington is by no means a “stand out” amongst its neighboring towns as Baron suggested in his email and, in fact, is following along on a path wholly consistent with the trend seen in the county, state, region and nation.

Why would an editor of a nationally recognized newspaper think that a single town would continue to function as an isolated bubble amongst a backdrop of the most significant nationwide housing recession since the Great Depression?

As I have shown in my prior posts, this data when charted and compared to other towns in the region proves there are absolutely no grounds to call Arlington’s market exceptional.

The most notable feature of the April results is unquestionably the low number of home sales with only 57 sales for the entire year to date, the lowest readings since the recessionary period of 1991.

Another important point to remember is that when sales decline dramatically the median selling price can jump wildly up or down since the small number of sales provides a small set with which to determine the “middle” selling price.

For example, for April the Cambridge median selling price of a single family home fell substantially, resting just a few thousand dollars above the median single family selling price for Arlington, an obvious distortion.

The following chart (click for much larger version) shows a history of Arlington’s April median sales price since 1988 along with the annual outcome.

Notice that the latest result declined substantially, dropping from last month’s $540,000 to $460,000 in April.

Again, the low sales count is clearly impacting the median selling price and April may end up being a little misleading as the total home sales count (larger collection of sales to determine the median from) continues to pick up later this spring and summer.

The next chart (click for much larger version) shows that home sales in Arlington have been essentially flat during the last 15 years, a result that is generally to be expected when looking only at the sales of one town in isolation. That being said though, Arlington has seen only 57 home sales this year, the lowest result on record since 1991.

The final chart shows how the year-to-date median sales price and combined sale count for Arlington, Bedford, Belmont, Cambridge and Lexington has changed since 1988. Notice again that because of the low sales count the current median price data is very volatile jumping radically up or down for each of town.

In review, the data shows that there is nothing exceptional about Arlington’s housing market proving clearly that the claims made in the Boston Globe article and later endorsed by its editor Martin Baron were entirely erroneous.

The Arlington Artifice: March 2008

This recurring monthly post tracks the latest results of the housing market seen in Arlington Massachusetts.

I choose Arlington as a result of the Boston Globe’s recently published and absurdly anecdotal and ludicrous farce about the town’s “hot” housing market.

The ridiculous tone and outright mishandling of the housing data by the Boston Globe “reporter” would almost be comical if it weren’t for the fact that the Globe’s editor, Martin Baron, ALSO blundered seriously when he responded to my email about the discrepancies.

Baron attempted to justify the articles contents and in so doing, he disclosed his disgracefully poor and obviously unsophisticated abilities with even the most basic economic data.

The March results again confirm that Arlington is by no means a “stand out” amongst its neighboring towns as Baron suggested in his email and, in fact, is following along on a path wholly consistent with the trend seen in the county, state, region and nation.

Why would an editor of a nationally recognized newspaper think that a single town would continue to function as an isolated bubble amongst a backdrop of the most significant nationwide housing recession since the Great Depression?

As I have shown in my prior posts, this data when charted and compared to other towns in the region proves there are absolutely no grounds to call Arlington’s market exceptional.

The most notable feature of the March results is unquestionably the low number of home sales with only 15 sales in March and 36 sales for the entire year to date, the lowest readings since the recessionary period of 1991.

Another important point to remember is that when sales decline dramatically the median selling price can jump wildly up or down since the small number of sales provides a small set with which to determine the “middle” selling price.

For example, for March the Cambridge median selling price of a single family home fell substantially, resting just a few thousand dollars above the median single family selling price for Arlington, an obvious distortion.

The following chart (click for much larger version) shows a history of Arlington’s March median sales price since 1988 along with the annual outcome. Notice first that although the latest result spiked up to a high of $540,000, the low sales count is clearly impacting the median selling price and March may end up being a little misleading as home sales pick up later this spring.

The next chart (click for much larger version) shows that home sales in Arlington have been essentially flat during the last 15 years, a result that is generally to be expected when looking only at the sales of one town in isolation. That being said though, Arlington has seen only 36 home sales this year, the lowest result on record since 1991.

The final chart shows how the year-to-date median sales price and combined sale count for Arlington, Bedford, Belmont, Cambridge and Lexington has changed since 1988. Notice again that the one month median price data is very volatile jumping radically up or down for each of town.

In review, the data shows that there is nothing exceptional about Arlington’s housing market proving clearly that the claims made in the Boston Globe article and later endorsed by its editor Martin Baron were entirely erroneous.