JOLT Job Openings and Labor Turnover: December 2015

Today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released their latest monthly read of job availability and labor turnover (JOLT) showing that private non-farm job “openings” increased 5.56% since November rising 11.76% above the level seen in December 2014 while private non-farm job “hires” rose 2.00% from November and 2.33% above the level seen in December 2014.

Quit activity, generally a mark of a strong job market for workers, also jumped notably rising 6.8% since November rising 12.5% above the level seen in December 2014.

Economic Jolt: Job Openings and Labor Turnover July 2012

Today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released their latest monthly read of job availability and labor turnover (JOLT) showing that private non-farm job “openings” declined 2.06% since June climbing 7.65% above the level seen in July 2011 while private non-farm job “hires” declined 1.68% from June but rose 1.73% above the level seen in July 2011.

Job “layoffs and discharges” declined 12.15% from June falling 7.15% below the level seen last year while quitting activity rose 1.50% from June climbing 7.87% above the level seen in July 2011.

It’s important to understand that job “quits” are included as a component of the “separations” data series as “quitting” is a valid means of workers “separating” from employers but their inclusion tends to create an overall procyclical trend in what would otherwise be logically thought of as a countercyclical process (i.e. downturn leads to increase in separations not decrease).

Economic Jolt: Job Openings and Labor Turnover December 2011

Today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released their latest monthly read of job availability and labor turnover (JOLT) showing that private non-farm job “openings” increased 8.79% since November climbing 20.36% above the level seen in December 2010 while private non-farm job “hires” declined 2.28% from November but rose 3.69% above the level seen in December 2010

Job “layoffs and discharges” declined 4.74% from November falling 1.36% below the level seen last year while quitting activity declined 2.45% from November remaining 3.41% above the level seen in December 2010.

It’s important to understand that job “quits” are included as a component of the “separations” data series as “quitting” is a valid means of workers “separating” from employers but their inclusion tends to create an overall procyclical trend in what would otherwise be logically thought of as a countercyclical process (i.e. downturn leads to increase in separations not decrease).

Economic Jolt: Job Openings and Labor Turnover February 2011

Today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released their latest monthly read of job availability and labor turnover (JOLT) showing that private non-farm job “openings” jumped a notable 14.10% since January climbing 27.79% above the level seen in February 2010 while private non-farm job “hires” increased a notable 4.33% since January climbing 4.65% above the level seen in February 2010 and job “layoffs and discharges” increased 2.14% since January while dropping 8.99% below the level seen last year.

It’s important to understand that job “quits” are included as a component of the “separations” data series as “quitting” is a valid means of workers “separating” from employers but their inclusion tends to create an overall procyclical trend in what would otherwise be logically thought of as a countercyclical process (i.e. downturn leads to increase in separations not decrease).

Beveridge Curve Balancing Act: September 2010

Looking deeper at today’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover report you can see that while the unemployment rate is showing notable initial signs of establishing a peak, the job openings rate is showing an equal but opposite troughing dynamic.

Further, the latest data indicates that job hires are occurring at a rate of 3.7% of total employment while total job separations occurs at a rate of 3.5%.

So, currently job hires are slightly outpacing separations thus resulting in, more or less, a stagnant job market and more evidence that the unemployment rate may stay elevated for some time.

It's important to note that today's data is very preliminary and volatile and that a more sustained and sustained spread between the rate of hires and separations would be required to make a significant dent in our current structurally weak job market.

Economic Jolt: Job Openings and Labor Turnover September 2010

Today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released their latest monthly read of job availability and labor turnover (JOLT) showing that private non-farm job “openings” declined 5.74% since August but remained 11.19% above the level seen in September 2009 while job “hires” increased 1.34% since August rising 2.87% above the level seen in September 2009 and job “layoffs and discharges” dropped 2.09% since August and dropping 24.23% below the level seen last year.

Job “openings” (click chart below for larger version), the reports most leading “demand side” indicator, clearly appears to be in the process of defining a bottom vacillating monthly between gain and loss but trending above the low levels seen during early 2009.



It’s important to understand that job “quits” are included as a component of the “separations” data series as “quitting” is a valid means of workers “separating” from employers but their inclusion tends to create an overall procyclical trend in what would otherwise be logically thought of as a countercyclical process (i.e. downturn leads to increase in separations not decrease).

Economic Jolt: Job Openings and Labor Turnover March 2010

Today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released their latest monthly read of job availability and labor turnover (JOLT) showing that, on a year-over-year basis, private non-farm job “openings” increased 2.65%, job “hires” increased 5.91%, job “layoffs and discharges” decreased 27.93% and job quits declined 4.74%.

Job “openings” (click chart below for larger version), the reports most leading “demand side” indicator, appears to be in the process of defining a bottom of sorts vacillating monthly between gain and loss but not dropping near the low levels seen during early 2009.

Sliding down that slope of the Beveridge curve, the decline in the job vacancy rate clearly corresponded with an equal but inverse movement up in the general unemployment rate as can be plainly seen in the following chart (click chart for larger version).

Job “hiring” activity (click chart for larger version) has also appears to be defining a bottom albeit at a historically low level.

Job separations are continuing to decline as both quitting activity continues to remain at a very low level and layoffs by employers continue to slow.

It’s important to understand that job “quits” are included as a component of the “separations” data series as “quitting” is a valid means of workers “separating” from employers but their inclusion tends to create an overall procyclical trend in what would otherwise be logically thought of as a countercyclical process (i.e. downturn leads to increase in separations not decrease).

Economic Jolt: Job Openings and Labor Turnover July 2009

Today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released their latest monthly read of job availability and turnover (JOLT) showing that, on a year-over-year basis, private non-farm job “openings” declined 41.95%, job “hires” declined 14.78%, job “layoffs and discharges” jumped 17.02% and job quits declined substantially dropping 32.30%.

Job “openings” (click chart below for larger version), the reports most leading “demand side” indicator, has now declined on a year-over-year basis for 23 consecutive months strongly suggesting that the private sector will curtail future hiring activity.

Sliding down that slope of the Beveridge curve, the decline in the job vacancy rate is clearly corresponding with an equal but inverse movement up in the general unemployment rate as can be plainly seen in the following chart (click chart for larger version).

Job “hiring” activity (click chart for larger version) has also been declining significantly with the latest results posting the 26th consecutive decline on a year-over-year basis further confirming the tremendous weakness seen in the job market.

With the latest revisions by the BLS, job “separations”, whereby workers and their employers go their separate ways by one means or another (layoffs, retirement, termination, quitting, etc.), appear to be flattening as a result of nearly equivalent but opposing movements in quitting and layoff activity.

It’s important to understand that job “quits” are included as a component of the “separations” data series as “quitting” is a valid means of workers “separating” from employers but their inclusion tends to create an overall procyclical trend in what would otherwise be logically thought of as a countercyclical process (i.e. downturn leads to increase in separations not decrease).

As the economy slides further into recession and the employment situation worsens workers tend to reduce quitting activity presumably for fear that they could risk a long bout of unemployment and the latest results (click chart for larger version) confirm this with the some of the sharpest year-over-year declines on record.

Layoff activity, now separated into its own series and as you can see from the chart below is showing a dramatic surge that is roughly equivalent but opposite to the decline seen in quitting activity.

Economic Jolt: Job Openings and Labor Turnover May 2009

Today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released their latest monthly read of job availability and turnover (JOLT) showing that, on a year-over-year basis, private non-farm job “openings” declined 37.91%, job “hires” declined 15.89%, job “layoffs and discharges” jumped 17.37% and job quits declined substantially dropping 34.26%.

Job “openings” (click chart below for larger version), the reports most leading “demand side” indicator, has now declined on a year-over-year basis for eighteen consecutive months strongly suggesting that the private sector will curtail future hiring activity.

Sliding down that slope of the Beveridge curve, the decline in the job vacancy rate is clearly corresponding with an equal but inverse movement up in the general unemployment rate as can be plainly seen in the following chart (click chart for larger version).

Job “hiring” activity (click chart for larger version) has also been declining significantly with the latest results posting the twentieth consecutive decline on a year-over-year basis further confirming the tremendous weakness seen in the job market.

With the latest revisions by the BLS, job “separations”, whereby workers and their employers go their separate ways by one means or another (layoffs, retirement, termination, quitting, etc.), appear to be flattening as a result of nearly equivalent but opposing movements in quitting and layoff activity.

It’s important to understand that job “quits” are included as a component of the “separations” data series as “quitting” is a valid means of workers “separating” from employers but their inclusion tends to create an overall procyclical trend in what would otherwise be logically thought of as a countercyclical process (i.e. downturn leads to increase in separations not decrease).

As the economy slides further into recession and the employment situation worsens workers tend to reduce quitting activity presumably for fear that they could risk a long bout of unemployment and the latest results (click chart for larger version) confirm this with the some of the sharpest year-over-year declines on record.

Layoff activity, now separated into its own series and as you can see from the chart below is showing a dramatic surge that is roughly equivalent but opposite to the decline seen in quitting activity.