Homebuilder Blues: NAHB/Wells Fargo Home Builder Ratings February 2011

Today, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) released their latest Housing Market Index (HMI) showing a flattening for most measures with the "buyer traffic" index remaining near record lows as home builders continue to plod through the weakest activity seen in generations.

It's important to recognize that currently the HMI index is showing a slight year-over-year decline and still remains very near the lowest levels seen in over 20 years, a testament to the significance of the latest pullback.

The new home market will likely not resume any significant form of healthy function until the considerable overhang of inventory is cleared.

Homebuilder Blues: NAHB/Wells Fargo Home Builder Ratings September 2010

Today, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) released their latest Housing Market Index (HMI) showing a continued flattening or pullback for all measures as home builders continue to downwardly adjusted their outlook in the wake of the home "buyer" tax credit expiration.

It's important to recognize that currently each sentiment index shows notable year-over-year declines with each still sitting near the lowest levels seen in over 20 years, a testament to the significance of the latest pullback.

Further, the "buyer traffic" index is showing the weakest results pulling back some 47.06% since September of 2009 and sitting just 2 points above the lowest level ever recorded while assessments of future activity appear to be on a similar "wipe-out" trend.

The new home market will likely not resume any significant form of healthy function until the considerable overhang of inventory is cleared.

Homebuilder Blues: NAHB/Wells Fargo Home Builder Ratings July 2010

Today, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) released their latest Housing Market Index (HMI) showing a continued pullback for all measures as home builders downwardly adjusted their outlook in the wake of the home "buyer" tax credit expiration.

It's important to recognize that currently each sentiment index shows notable year-over-year declines with each still sitting near the lowest levels seen in over 20 years, a testament to the significance of the latest pullback.

Further, the "buyer traffic" index is showing the weakest results pulling back some 23% since July of 2009 and sitting just 3 points above the lowest level ever recorded.

The new home market will likely not resume any significant form of healthy function until the considerable overhang of inventory is cleared.

Homebuilder Blues: NAHB/Wells Fargo Home Builder Ratings June 2010

Today, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) released their latest Housing Market Index (HMI) showing a notable pullback for all measures as home builders downwardly adjusted their outlook in the wake of the home "buyer" tax credit expiration.

It's important to recognize that although each sentiment index continues to show notable year-over-year increases, each still remains near the lowest levels seen in over 20 years.

The new home market will likely not resume any significant form of healthy function until the considerable overhang of inventory is cleared.

Homebuilder Blues: NAHB/Wells Fargo Home Builder Ratings September 2009

Yesterday, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) released their latest Housing Market Index (HMI) showing a slight increase to the overall index as well as most component indices.

It's important to recognize that although each sentiment index has now shown year-over-year increases, their levels still remain near the worst levels seen in over 20 years.

The new home market will likely not resume any significant form of healthy function until the considerable overhang of inventory is cleared.

Homebuilder Blues: NAHB/Wells Fargo Home Builder Ratings July 2009

Yesterday, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) released their latest Housing Market Index (HMI) showing an increase to the overall index as well as most component indices.

It’s important to recognize that although the series are seasonally adjusted, each series has generally shown notable strength or noticeable flattening during the first quarter of each of the last 4 years.

The new home market will likely not resume any significant form of healthy function until the considerable overhang of inventory is cleared.

Each component of the NAHB housing market index remains WELL BELOW the worst levels ever seen in the over 20 years and continues to remain firmly in uncharted territory.

New Residential Construction Report: December 2008

Today’s New Residential Construction Report continues to firmly demonstrate the intensity and completeness of the washout conditions that now exist in the nation’s housing markets particularly for new residential construction showing tremendous declines on both a peak and year-over-year basis to single family permits both nationally and across every region.

It’s important to note that today’s results strongly indicate that a new leg in the housing decline was reached between October and December with permit activity falling at the most significant rate seen in this decline.

Single family housing permits, the most leading of indicators, again suggests extensive weakness in future construction activity dropping 49.2% nationally as compared to December 2007 and an astonishing 77.50% since the peak in January 2005.

Moreover, every region showed significant double digit declines to permits with the Northeast declining 43.7%, the Midwest declining 49.1%, the South declining 49.7%, and the West declining a stunning 50.3% on a year-over-year basis.

Keep in mind that these declines are coming on the back of last year’s record declines.

To illustrate the extent to which permits and starts have declined, I have created the following charts (click for larger versions) that show the percentage changes of the current values on a year-over-year basis as well as compared to the peak year of 2004.

Declines to single family permits have contracted measurably in terms of monthly YOY declines, and the fact that we are now seeing declines of roughly 30%-50% on the back of 2006 and 2007 declines should provide a an unequivocal indication that the housing markets are by no means stabilizing.




Here are the seasonally adjusted statistics outlined in today’s report:

Housing Permits

Nationally

• Single family housing permits down 49.2% as compared to December 2007.

Regionally

• For the Northeast, single family housing down 43.7% as compared to December 2007.
• For the Midwest, single family housing permits down 49.1% as compared to December 2007.
• For the South, single family housing permits down 49.7% compared to December 2007.
• For the West, single family housing permits down 50.3% as compared to December 2007.

Housing Starts

Nationally

• Single family housing starts down 48.9% as compared to December 2007.

Regionally

• For the Northeast, single family housing starts down 37.8% as compared to December 2007.
• For the Midwest, single family housing starts down 47.5% as compared to December 2007.
• For the South, single family housing starts down 50.8% as compared to December 2007.
• For the West, single family housing starts down 50.0% as compared to December 2007.

Housing Completions

Nationally

• Single family housing completions down 34.9% as compared to December 2007.

Regionally

• For the Northeast, single family housing completions down 24.524.7% as compared to December 2007.
• For the Midwest, single family housing completions down 49.7% as compared to December 2007.
• For the South, single family housing completions down 31.3% as compared to December 2007.
• For the West, single family housing completions down 35.5% as compared to December 2007.

Keep in mind that this particular report does NOT factor in the cancellations that have been widely reported to be occurring in new construction.

New Residential Construction Report: August 2008

Today’s New Residential Construction Report continues to firmly demonstrate the intensity and completeness of the washout conditions that now exist in the nation’s housing markets particularly for new residential construction showing tremendous declines on both a peak and year-over-year basis to single family permits both nationally and across every region.

Single family housing permits, the most leading of indicators, again suggests extensive weakness in future construction activity dropping 40.30% nationally as compared to August 2007 and an astonishing 65.57% since the peak in January 2005.

Moreover, every region showed significant double digit declines to permits with the Northeast declining 30.2%, the Midwest declining 38.7%, the South declining 40.3%, and the West declining a stunning 45.4% on a year-over-year basis.

Keep in mind that these declines are coming on the back of last year’s record declines.

To illustrate the extent to which permits and starts have declined, I have created the following charts (click for larger versions) that show the percentage changes of the current values on a year-over-year basis as well as compared to the peak year of 2004.

Declines to single family permits have contracted measurably in terms of monthly YOY declines, and the fact that we are now seeing declines of roughly 30%-50% on the back of 2006 and 2007 declines should provide a an unequivocal indication that the housing markets are by no means stabilizing.




Here are the seasonally adjusted statistics outlined in today’s report:

Housing Permits

Nationally

• Single family housing permits down 40.3% as compared to August 2007.

Regionally

• For the Northeast, single family housing down 30.2% as compared to August 2007.
• For the Midwest, single family housing permits down 38.7% as compared to August 2007.
• For the South, single family housing permits down 40.3% compared to August 2007.
• For the West, single family housing permits down 45.5% as compared to August 2007.

Housing Starts

Nationally

• Single family housing starts down 34.9% as compared to August 2007.

Regionally

• For the Northeast, single family housing starts down 14.7% as compared to August 2007.
• For the Midwest, single family housing starts down 32.7% as compared to August 2007.
• For the South, single family housing starts down 40.4% as compared to August 2007.
• For the West, single family housing starts down 30.7% as compared to August 2007.

Housing Completions

Nationally

• Single family housing completions down 44.8% as compared to August 2007.

Regionally

• For the Northeast, single family housing completions down 49.1% as compared to August 2007.
• For the Midwest, single family housing completions down 17.9% as compared to August 2007.
• For the South, single family housing completions down 47.5% as compared to August 2007.
• For the West, single family housing completions down 50.9% as compared to August 2007.

Keep in mind that this particular report does NOT factor in the cancellations that have been widely reported to be occurring in new construction.

New Residential Construction Report: July 2008

Today’s New Residential Construction Report continues to firmly demonstrate the intensity and completeness of the washout conditions that now exist in the nation’s housing markets particularly for new residential construction showing tremendous declines on both a peak and year-over-year basis to single family permits both nationally and across every region.

Single family housing permits, the most leading of indicators, again suggests extensive weakness in future construction activity dropping 41.42% nationally as compared to July 2007 and an astonishing 63.95% since the peak in January 2005.

Moreover, every region showed significant double digit declines to permits with the Northeast declining 35.3%, the Midwest declining 35.7%, the South declining 40.4%, and the West declining a stunning 49.4% on a year-over-year basis.

Keep in mind that these declines are coming on the back of last year’s record declines.

To illustrate the extent to which permits and starts have declined, I have created the following charts (click for larger versions) that show the percentage changes of the current values on a year-over-year basis as well as compared to the peak year of 2004.

Declines to single family permits have contracted measurably in terms of monthly YOY declines, and the fact that we are now seeing declines of roughly 30%-50% on the back of 2006 and 2007 declines should provide a an unequivocal indication that the housing markets are by no means stabilizing.




Here are the statistics outlined in today’s report:

Housing Permits

Nationally

• Single family housing permits down 41.4% as compared to July 2007.

Regionally

• For the Northeast, single family housing down 35.3% as compared to July 2007.
• For the Midwest, single family housing permits down 35.7% as compared to July 2007.
• For the South, single family housing permits down 40.4% compared to July 2007.
• For the West, single family housing permits down 49.4% as compared to July 2007.

Housing Starts

Nationally

• Single family housing starts down 39.2% as compared to July 2007.

Regionally

• For the Northeast, single family housing starts down 26.6% as compared to July 2007.
• For the Midwest, single family housing starts down 39.5% as compared to July 2007.
• For the South, single family housing starts down 38.9% as compared to July 2007.
• For the West, single family housing starts down 44.4% as compared to July 2007.

Housing Completions

Nationally

• Single family housing completions down 34.2% as compared to July 2007.

Regionally

• For the Northeast, single family housing completions up 1.2% as compared to July 2007.
• For the Midwest, single family housing completions down 33.9% as compared to July 2007.
• For the South, single family housing completions down 40.6% as compared to July 2007.
• For the West, single family housing completions down 30.4% as compared to July 2007.

Keep in mind that this particular report does NOT factor in the cancellations that have been widely reported to be occurring in new construction.

New Home Sales: June 2008

Last week, the U.S. Census Department released its monthly New Residential Home Sales Report for June showing continued weakness in demand for new residential homes across every tracked region resulting in a startling 33.17% year-over-year decline and a truly whopping 61.84% peak sales decline nationally.

It’s important to keep in mind that this stunning year-over-year decline is coming on the back of the significant declines seen in 2006 and 2007 further indicating the enormity of the housing bust and clearly dispelling any notion of a bottom being reached.

Additionally, although inventories of unsold homes have been dropping for fifteen straight months, the sales volume has been declining so significantly that the sales pace now stands at an astonishing 10.0 months of supply.

The following charts show the extent of sales declines seen since 2005 as well as illustrating how the further declines in 2008 are coming on top of the 2006 and 2007 results (click for larger versions)


Look at the following summary of today’s report:

National

• The median sales price for a new home declined 1.95% as compared to June 2007.
• New home sales were down 33.2% as compared to June 2007.
• The inventory of new homes for sale declined 21.5% as compared to June 2007.
• The number of months’ supply of the new homes has increased 20.5% as compared to June 2007 and now stands at 10.0 months.

Regional

• In the Northeast, new home sales were down 37.5% as compared to June 2007.
• In the Midwest, new home sales were down 27.1% as compared to June 2007.
• In the South, new home sales were down 33.4% as compared to June 2007.
• In the West, new home sales were down 34.9% as compared to June 2007.

Homebuilder Blues: NAHB/Wells Fargo Home Builder Ratings July 2008

Yesterday, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) released their latest Housing Market Index (HMI) showing continued evidence that the new home market is experiencing a prolonged bout of depression.

The release came along with a truly dire outlook and a continued plea for a government bailout of the housing debacle from Chief Economist David Seiders.

“Builders are reporting that traffic of prospective buyers has fallen off substantially in recent months … Given the systematic deterioration of job markets, rising energy costs and sinking home values aggravated by the rising tide of foreclosures, many prospective buyers have simply returned to the sidelines until conditions improve … An $8,000 tax credit, made available for a limited time, could be just the incentive needed to draw them into the game, and a policy-induced pickup in home sales could gain momentum further down the line.”

Each component of the NAHB housing market index is now sitting WELL BELOW the worst levels ever seen in the over 20 years the data has been being compiled strongly suggesting that the current severe contraction has surpassed all other events seen in the last 22 years and is now firmly in uncharted territory.