Massive Unemployment: Mass Layoffs October 2011

The latest release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Mass Layoff Report indicated a decline in large-scale layoffs with 1353 mass layoff events for October resulting in 118,689 initial unemployment claimants on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The BLS considers a mass layoff event to be a condition where there are at least fifty initial claims for unemployment insurance originating from a single employer over a period of five consecutive weeks.

Economic Jolt: Job Openings and Labor Turnover June 2009

Today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released their latest monthly read of job availability and turnover (JOLT) showing that, on a year-over-year basis, private non-farm job “openings” declined 35.67%, job “hires” declined 18.34%, job “layoffs and discharges” jumped 6.48% and job quits declined substantially dropping 33.36%.

Job “openings” (click chart below for larger version), the reports most leading “demand side” indicator, has now declined on a year-over-year basis for 22 consecutive months strongly suggesting that the private sector will curtail future hiring activity.

Sliding down that slope of the Beveridge curve, the decline in the job vacancy rate is clearly corresponding with an equal but inverse movement up in the general unemployment rate as can be plainly seen in the following chart (click chart for larger version).

Job “hiring” activity (click chart for larger version) has also been declining significantly with the latest results posting the 26th consecutive decline on a year-over-year basis further confirming the tremendous weakness seen in the job market.

With the latest revisions by the BLS, job “separations”, whereby workers and their employers go their separate ways by one means or another (layoffs, retirement, termination, quitting, etc.), appear to be flattening as a result of nearly equivalent but opposing movements in quitting and layoff activity.

It’s important to understand that job “quits” are included as a component of the “separations” data series as “quitting” is a valid means of workers “separating” from employers but their inclusion tends to create an overall procyclical trend in what would otherwise be logically thought of as a countercyclical process (i.e. downturn leads to increase in separations not decrease).

As the economy slides further into recession and the employment situation worsens workers tend to reduce quitting activity presumably for fear that they could risk a long bout of unemployment and the latest results (click chart for larger version) confirm this with the some of the sharpest year-over-year declines on record.

Layoff activity, now separated into its own series and as you can see from the chart below is showing a dramatic surge that is roughly equivalent but opposite to the decline seen in quitting activity.

Massive Unemployment: Mass Layoffs May 2009

Today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the May installment of the Mass Layoff Report clearly showing continued deterioration of the nation’s job market with 2738 mass layoff events resulting in 289,628 initial unemployment claims causing the six month moving average of non-seasonally adjusted mass layoff events to jump by 76.42% while total initial claimants increased 81.62% on a year-over-year basis.

Further, as you can see clearly from the charts below (click for full-screen super-interactive zoom-able chart) May typically brings a solid seasonal DECLINE in both mass layoff events total initial unemployment claims filed… this year however…. Things are different.

As I have pointed out in prior posts, mid-July marks the next typical seasonally spike in unemployment activity (a trend clearly seen in the non-seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims series as well as the non-seasonally adjusted mass layoff data) and it appears from today’s mass layoff results, that the July peak may be notable.

Notice from the data below that the typical May decline in mass layoffs did NOT occur and, in fact, look to be surging… This is likely giving us an early indication that the July spike will be worse than normal.

The BLS considers a mass layoff event to be a condition where there are at least fifty initial claims for unemployment insurance originating from a single employer over a period of five consecutive weeks.

The Almost Daily 2¢ - Revealing The True Potential

I’m certain that anyone would find the depth and breadth of the below list of announced job cuts to be concerning… Knowing that these headlines came from a single 24 hour period is simply shocking.

Banking and Finance, Telcom, Mobile, Health, Pharma, Hardware, Education, Municipal, Manufacturing, Energy, Equipment, Construction, Retail… it’s simply across the board and it’s everywhere.

The vicious cycle is firmly in place and no state or city will be immune… no industry… no profession.

We are in the early stages of a truly fundamental shakeout that no amount of government intervention can prevent.

The route by which “shovel ready” infrastructure construction jobs puts millions of scientists, hospital workers, analysts, bankers, programmers, mobile and telcom technicians, business managers, energy workers and high-end retailers back to work is tenuous at best, even with a generous “trickle-up” multiplier effect.

No… the government spending will not succeed in stemming this tide.

But, let us pause and draw some confidence from the fact that the economy is not broken.

In fact, that recessionary “sting” is how you know it’s working… adjusting, reaching down… deep down to a new, more fundamental equilibrium and, inevitably, a healthy revelation of its true potential.

***

“Telstra mulls thousands of extra job cuts”
“Motorola Announces Another 4000 Job Cuts”
“Mercy Hospital included in Wheaton's plan for job cuts”
“Pfizer to layoff 800 scientists and technicians in research”
“Seagate Cuts 6% of Jobs Globally, Reduces CEO Pay 25%”
“University Of Tennessee Predicts 700 Job Cuts”
“Butler County sheriff plans 20 job cuts”
“Washington County job cuts announced”
“Hill-Rom to restructure, cut 300 jobs”
“Cummins To Cut 800 'Professional' Jobs By End Of Feb”
“71 effected by County School job cuts”
“Job Cuts At Yakima Catholic Diocese”
“Major job cuts in Tulare County to hit health care”
“ING cuts 750 US jobs due to economic slowdown”
“BofA confirms 139 job cuts in Ballantyne”
“2000 jobs to go after bank merger“
“Galveston College to talk about job cuts”
“Barclays plans thousands more job cuts”
“A Higher Estimate of Job Cuts at HMH”
“Cajundome Announces Job Cuts”
“Mount Carmel announces 300 job cuts”
“Dow Chemical to detail Texas job cuts”
“Crown job cuts 'strategic'”
“Hutchinson Tech sheds 1380 workers”
“TeliaSonera makes domestic job cuts”
“Georgia Power to eliminate up to 400 jobs”
“Tiffany cuts forecast, posts holiday-sales decline”
“San Jose Mayor says city should prepare for layoffs”
“Plantronics to layoff 18 percent of global workforce”
“Nortel workers in Richardson brace for layoffs”
“Rensselaer layoffs spark controversy”
“Russellville Plant Lays Off About 30 Workers”
“Google's Loss of Innocence: 100 Jobs Cut”
“Iron City Brewing to move production, lay off staff”
“Boat manufacturer cites poor economy in layoff of 55 workers”
“43 Lincoln City Jobs In Jeopardy”
“Deere & Co. announces layoffs at Dubuque site”
“Paper mill plans temporary layoffs”
“Oral Roberts University begins layoffs”
“Protective vest manufacturer to have temporary layoffs at Grainger County plant”