Single family housing permits, the most leading of indicators, increased 1.8% from November to 740K single family units (SAAR), and rose 8.0% above the level seen a year earlier but still remained well below levels seen at the peak in September 2005.
Wednesday, January 20, 2016
New Residential Construction Report: December 2015
Today’s New Residential Construction Report showed weak results with total permit activity declining 3.9% since November while total starts declined 2.3% over the same period.
Single family housing permits, the most leading of indicators, increased 1.8% from November to 740K single family units (SAAR), and rose 8.0% above the level seen a year earlier but still remained well below levels seen at the peak in September 2005.
Single family housing permits, the most leading of indicators, increased 1.8% from November to 740K single family units (SAAR), and rose 8.0% above the level seen a year earlier but still remained well below levels seen at the peak in September 2005.
Reading Rates: MBA Application Survey – January 20 2016
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages as well as the volume of both purchase and refinance applications.
The purchase application index has been highlighted as a particularly important data series as it very broadly captures the demand side of residential real estate for both new and existing home purchases.
The latest data is showing that the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage (from FHA and conforming GSE data) increased 3 basis points to 4.04% since last week while the purchase application volume increased 4% and the refinance application volume increased 11% over the same period.
The following chart shows the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages since 2006 as well as the purchase, refinance and composite loan volumes (click for larger dynamic full-screen version).
The purchase application index has been highlighted as a particularly important data series as it very broadly captures the demand side of residential real estate for both new and existing home purchases.
The latest data is showing that the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage (from FHA and conforming GSE data) increased 3 basis points to 4.04% since last week while the purchase application volume increased 4% and the refinance application volume increased 11% over the same period.
The following chart shows the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages since 2006 as well as the purchase, refinance and composite loan volumes (click for larger dynamic full-screen version).
Tuesday, January 19, 2016
NAHB/Wells Fargo Home Builder Sentiment: January 2016
Today, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) released their latest Housing Market Index (HMI) showing that overall assessments of housing activity generally worsened in January with the composite HMI index remaining flat at 60 while the "buyer traffic" index declined to a level of 44.
Yellen’s Myth (Part 2)
While Fed Chair Janet Yellen is apparently not able to “see anything in the underlying strength of the economy that would lead me to be concerned” about recession, let’s take a look at just a few data points that may support the apparent myth that expansions "die of old age".
First, as part of the Census Department's "Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales" report we find that the general ratio of inventory to sales has been climbing since late 2014 to currently stand at the highest level since mid-2009 indicating that inventories are likely mounting in the face of diminished demand.
Rail Freight Carloads, as published by the U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics, is currently reflecting a similar likely pullback in general demand with carloads registering annual declines for all of 2015, falling to a level last seen in early 2010.
Finally, the Dow Jones Transportation Average, a stock index representing the U.S. transportation sector, is now down over 20% from it's most recent high, the most substantial pullback seen since 2008's Great Recession.
Friday, January 15, 2016
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: December 2015
Today, the Federal Reserve released their monthly read of industrial production and capacity utilization showing further declines in December with total industrial production declining 0.36% since November and falling 1.75% below the level seen in December 2014.
Capacity utilization also declined falling 0.48% from November and plunging 3.19% below the level seen in December 2014 to stand at 76.487%.
It's important to note that industrial production is now showing significant weakness which, if all past periods were to serve at least as a rough guide, now clearly indicates notable trouble for the macro-economy.
Capacity utilization also declined falling 0.48% from November and plunging 3.19% below the level seen in December 2014 to stand at 76.487%.
It's important to note that industrial production is now showing significant weakness which, if all past periods were to serve at least as a rough guide, now clearly indicates notable trouble for the macro-economy.
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey: January 2016
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey consists of a series of diffusion indices distilled from a monthly survey of New York regional manufacturing executives and seeks to identify trends across 22 different current and future manufacturing related activities.
Today’s report showed a notable decline for current and future assessments of manufacturing activity with the current activity index falling to a recessionary level of -19.37 while future activity dropped to a weak level of 9.51.
Current prices paid rose to 16 while current new orders slumped notably to -23.54 while assessments of future new orders fell to 12.18.
Retail Sales: December 2015
Today, the U.S. Census Bureau released its latest nominal read of retail sales showing declining activity in December with sales falling 0.1% from November but rising 2.2% on a year-over-year basis on an aggregate of all items including food, fuel and healthcare services.
Nominal "discretionary" retail sales including home furnishings, home garden and building materials, consumer electronics and department store sales improved, climbing 0.56% from November and rising 2.38% above the level seen in December 2014 while, adjusting for inflation, “real” discretionary retail sales increased 0.09% on the month and rose 1.12% since December 2014.
Nominal "discretionary" retail sales including home furnishings, home garden and building materials, consumer electronics and department store sales improved, climbing 0.56% from November and rising 2.38% above the level seen in December 2014 while, adjusting for inflation, “real” discretionary retail sales increased 0.09% on the month and rose 1.12% since December 2014.
Thursday, January 14, 2016
Index of Stress: January 2016
The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis recently began publishing a new weekly index that seeks to track the general level of financial stress.
As periods of financial stress come and go a whole host of fundamental economic indicators immediately adjust to meet the near and long term expectations of market participants
Interest rates, yields spreads, popular market volatility indices all move in real time giving observers unequivocal evidence of changes general sentiment.
The St. Louis Fed has devised a method of crunching eighteen of these sensitive indices down into one convenient index it calls the St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index (STLFSI).
The latest results of the STLFSI indicate that the level of financial stress is low but is trending up with January's results increasing to -.492.
The Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey: December 2015
The December release of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey (BOS) indicated a notable pullback in the regions manufacturing activity with the current activity index falling to a weak level of -10.2 while assessments the future activity also worsened to a level of 24.1.
The above chart shows the current and future activity indexes both with their corresponding 3-month moving averages. The red line marks the threshold between contraction and expansion for these diffusion indexes.
Weekly Unemployment Claims: Initial and Continued January 14 2015
Today’s jobless claims report showed a increase to both initial and continued unemployment claims as seasonally adjusted initial claims remained just below the 300K level.
Seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims increased by 7,000 to 284,000 claims while seasonally adjusted “insured” claims increased by 29,000 to 2.263 million resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 1.7%.
Seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims increased by 7,000 to 284,000 claims while seasonally adjusted “insured” claims increased by 29,000 to 2.263 million resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 1.7%.
Wednesday, January 13, 2016
Reading Rates: MBA Application Survey – January 13 2016
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages as well as the volume of both purchase and refinance applications.
The purchase application index has been highlighted as a particularly important data series as it very broadly captures the demand side of residential real estate for both new and existing home purchases.
The latest data is showing that the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage (from FHA and conforming GSE data) decreased 7 basis points to 4.01% since last week while the purchase application volume increased 18% and the refinance application volume increased 24% over the same period.
The following chart shows the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages since 2006 as well as the purchase, refinance and composite loan volumes (click for larger dynamic full-screen version).
The purchase application index has been highlighted as a particularly important data series as it very broadly captures the demand side of residential real estate for both new and existing home purchases.
The latest data is showing that the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage (from FHA and conforming GSE data) decreased 7 basis points to 4.01% since last week while the purchase application volume increased 18% and the refinance application volume increased 24% over the same period.
The following chart shows the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages since 2006 as well as the purchase, refinance and composite loan volumes (click for larger dynamic full-screen version).
Tuesday, January 12, 2016
SNAP Food Stamp Participation: October 2015
As a logical consequence of the prolonged weak economic conditions, participation in the federal food stamp program remains at historic levels.
The latest data released by the Department of Agriculture indicated that in October, 47,097 individual recipients were removed from the food stamps program with the current total declining 2.43% on a year-over-year basis.
Individuals receiving food stamp benefits declined to 45.36 million which, as a ratio of the overall civilian non-institutional population now stands at a whopping 18.03% of the population.
Households receiving food stamps benefits declined to 22.38 million households with the current total falling 1.73% below the level seen a year earlier
Total nominal benefit cost declined 4.01% on a year-over-year basis to $5.73 billion for the month.
The latest data released by the Department of Agriculture indicated that in October, 47,097 individual recipients were removed from the food stamps program with the current total declining 2.43% on a year-over-year basis.
Individuals receiving food stamp benefits declined to 45.36 million which, as a ratio of the overall civilian non-institutional population now stands at a whopping 18.03% of the population.
Households receiving food stamps benefits declined to 22.38 million households with the current total falling 1.73% below the level seen a year earlier
Total nominal benefit cost declined 4.01% on a year-over-year basis to $5.73 billion for the month.
The Farce Is Strong with this Fed Chair
The dot-com boom went bust… the housing boom went bust… now we have the Fed boom.
These booms are all identical in that they were all founded on an irrationally exuberant belief in some fundamental story that, eventually, gives way to the cold hard truth of reality.
The Fed boom farce is founded on a belief that the “masters of the universe” at the Fed can, from the comfort of their FOMC meeting room in Washington DC, not just plan the most fundamental trends in our massive macro-economy (namely prices and employment) but also manage to erase all the errors accumulated by millions of foolish and fraudulent participants (households and firms) during past economic tumult.
One very problematic way that this boom is different though is that it’s not a belief in a single industry sector or a particular asset class but in the institution that many believe currently backstops the entire system itself.
When the trends turn on this boom… look out!
So, that begs the question… Does Janet Yellen, a frail diminutive academic, have what it takes to meet the demands of the ensuing crisis?
I think not...
The Fed is going to need a new Chairman.
Friday, January 08, 2016
Employment Situation: Nonfarm Payrolls and Civilian Unemployment December 2015
Today's Employment Situation Report indicated that in December, net non-farm payrolls increased by a by a notable 292,000 jobs overall with the private non-farm payrolls sub-component adding 275,000 jobs while the civilian unemployment went flat at 5.0% over the same period.
Net private sector jobs increased 0.23% since last month climbing 2.15% above the level seen a year ago and climbing 4.54% above the peak level of employment seen in December 2007 prior to the Great Recession.
Net private sector jobs increased 0.23% since last month climbing 2.15% above the level seen a year ago and climbing 4.54% above the peak level of employment seen in December 2007 prior to the Great Recession.
Employment Situation: Unemployment Duration December 2015
Today's employment situation report showed that conditions for the long term unemployed generally went flat in December.
Workers unemployed 27 weeks or more increased to 2.085 million or 26.3% of all unemployed workers while the median term of unemployment declined to 10.5 weeks and the average stay on unemployment declined to 27.6 weeks.
Workers unemployed 27 weeks or more increased to 2.085 million or 26.3% of all unemployed workers while the median term of unemployment declined to 10.5 weeks and the average stay on unemployment declined to 27.6 weeks.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)