Monday, December 11, 2006

April Showers Bring…?

This coming spring home selling season has got to be the most important event in residential home sales history.

The stakes could not be higher.

Think about it.

If, after all the pent-up inventory hits the spring market, buyers once again refuse to show, things are going to look horrendous especially if the economic and interest rate environment continue to appear favorable.

Here in the Northeast it’s clear that home sellers are taking a hiatus.

Perusing just about any town in the Boston metro area using the Inventory Tracking Tool clearly shows MLS inventories at the lowest levels since the tool became available last May.

Sellers have obviously pulled their listings until spring in hopes of reentering the market in a more favorable environment.

Unfortunately though, this practice is occurring in droves so unless buyers turn out as well, things will end up right where they were last spring except with an even greater numbers of homes for sale.

Additionally, it’s interesting to consider if winter weather conditions will help or hurt home inventories in areas like the Northeast.

If this winter is mild, then you should expect to see some homes start to reappear after Super Bowl Sunday on February 4th when home buyers will be free to spend their Sunday afternoons attending open houses.

A mild winter might help inventory levels as having more reasonably temperate days to sell homes could prompt an earlier start to the spring market.

On the other hand, if buyers don’t show, this could also result in even more inventory backup which is what appears to have happened last winter in the Northeast.

Only time will tell, but it does appear that spring 2007 could represent a significant turning point for the US housing market.

What do you think??