Paper Economy - A US Real Estate Bubble Blog

Sunday, March 18, 2007

Zero Down at Countrywide

A couple of weeks ago, when in the initial malaise of the sub-prime meltdown was just settling over the nation, Countrywide Financial appeared to scramble to take some action that might allay the fears of an increasingly volatile market.

Then came a widely publicized account of an “urgent” email which specified that Countrywide brokers were to no longer provide any 100% financing deals as of March 12.

"Please get in any deals over 95 LTV (loan-to-value) today!... Countrywide BC will no longer be offering any 100 LTV products as of Monday, March 12."

At first glance, this was a fairly positive development for the company as most would easily agree that lending first time home buyers 100% of their purchase price was probably a bit too risky let alone lending it to buyers with sketchy credit histories.

But still, it seemed a bit light on substance given that home buyers, even ones with sub-prime credit quality or low to no verified income, could still borrow 95% of the purchase price of their home, not to mention that there was never an official follow up release from the company substantiating the changes.

Either way, the traditional media ran with the news of the changes and fact or fiction, company stunt or legitimate development, it eventually made it's way onto CNBC and into the Wall Street Journal.

Then a few days ago, I managed to get my hands on a few Countrywide BC rate sheets dated March 12th as well as several underwriting matrices and was quickly able to arrive at the truth behind the reported changes.

First, although Countrywide may have limited the availability of their 100% LTV products, they did NOT eliminated them entirely.

In fact, 100% financing is still an option, allowing “full documentation” borrowers with credit scores of 620 or better to borrow up to $1 million using either a 100% or 80%-20% product.

Borrowers with credit scores as low as 580 can receive 95% financing allowing them to borrow up to $550,000 and even “no-doc” borrowers with credit scores of 640 or better are eligible for 95% LTV loans of up to $600,000.

Finally, Countrywide is still offering these loan products in the form of risky “interest only” option ARMs as well as continuing to serve borrowers who are “out of bankruptcy less than a year” as one of their ads had promoted.

All in all, I’d say not much has changed over at Countrywide and although their CEO Angelo Mozilo has gone to great lengths recently to assure the markets that they were operating in a sound manner, you would be hard pressed to tell that from their underwriting guidelines.

So, was this a surprise?

Truthfully, given the state of affairs that has been unfolding in the last month, I was a bit surprised… that is, until I read the following press release titled “Countrywide Home Loans Assures Homeowners and Home Buyers That They Still Have Many Mortgage Loan Choices” published late Friday evening.

Here is the most pertinent excerpt:

"We want to assure homeowners that there is still an extensive selection of mortgage loans to suit a multitude of personal and financial circumstances," said Tom Hunt, managing director of Countrywide Home Loans. "We recognize it's been widely reported that some major lenders, like Countrywide, no longer offer 100% financing. In fact, we have made changes to certain subprime and other special mortgage programs, but we have not eliminated 100% financing. We still offer one of the widest selections of low- and no-downpayment options to qualified customers, including those with less-than-perfect credit."

So, it appears that Mozilo may have summed it up best when he told Maria Bartiromo of CNBC the following:

“There’s been a rush to judgment, an overreaction, a baby out with the bathwater… “

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20 Comments:

  • True, they didn't eliminate 100% financing. What they did was eliminate 100% stated and pop the interest rates on 100% full-doc so high that nobody would want them. For all practical purposes, 100% LTV is defunct for Countrywide.

    By Blogger oc_fliptrack, at 2:59 AM  

  • Good point..

    Although, I think you can only take them at their word.

    They reported in the press release that they fully intend on continuing to lend 100% LTV even to sub-prime candidates.

    Possibly, their rate sheet will become more acceptable in the near future.

    They are either playing an interesting game of PR or they really believe that originating risky sub-prime loans as necessary to their operations (bottom line)... either way it doesn't speak well for the company.

    By Blogger SoldAtTheTop, at 7:44 AM  

  • Great report. This just means there is a greater chance that they will face bankruptcy!

    By Blogger David, at 9:20 AM  

  • More lieing liers lying!!!

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:11 AM  

  • I've originated Countrywide loans and although the underwriting guidelines may ostensibly seem liberal, most products, including sub-prime and Alt-A, require an Automated Underwriting approval via Countrywide's CLUES system. In other words, simply having the rock bottom credit score necessary to get 100% financing or to obtain a pay-option arm with stated income does not guarantee you will receive that loan product. If CLUES returns a "Refer" recommendation (and, by and large, those will be the findings when you meet rock bottom criteria), getting that loan approved through manual underwriting will be an up hill battle--some products, such as Alt-A, do not even allow that option on the table.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:28 AM  

  • I worked in the wholesale subprime division for CW. The new guidelines are still allowing 80/20, full doc combos, with a 620 fico, on 30 year fixed products only. The collection policy makes it difficult to close those loans, but they are still offering them. I recently resigned, due to the changes in the market and the lack of investors interested in CW's loans. The overhead cost for a subprime, compared to a prime loan, is much higher and the fear of the CW subprime division being dissolved has been on the rise.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 7:17 PM  

  • What are you guys expecting on the Feb Housing Starts due on Tuesday?

    I think another double digit decline from Jan.

    By Anonymous hbb, at 7:32 PM  

  • Aaron Krowne over at ml-implode.com posted the CW insider sales from the SEC a little while ago. It shows Mr. Mozillo's actions, not his words.

    http://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/25191.htm

    Draw your own conclusions.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 7:38 PM  

  • David,

    Thanks! I think you are right... Countrywide, particularly Mozilo, seems unprepared for the inevitable fallout to come.

    Anonymous mortgage industry insiders,

    I think you both are confirming the overall point of the post. Countrywide is still making sub-prime loans.

    You have to ask yourself why?

    Do they not agree that 100% LTV sub-prime lending is risky or do they simply need to book those originations to support their bottom line.

    hbb,

    Since on a year-over-year basis we are now comparing 2007 against the significant declines seen in 2006, any double-digit declines seen from here on out should unequivocally indicate that the housing market is nowhere near stabilizing.

    By Blogger SoldAtTheTop, at 8:27 PM  

  • If you look at the underwriting guidelines for subprime lenders such as Countrywide, Novastar, Fremont, MLN, and so on, they are (or, hitherto, were) all very similar: 580 full doc, 100% financing, 0x30 or 1x30 housing history, etc.

    Why the similarities? The answer is a simple one: Wall Street was the end buyer for these loans. Ultimately, a closed loan would be purchased by Bear Stearns, Goldman Sachs, Credit Suisse, or any other major financial firm. Hence the similarities.

    I think Wall Street should, in part, take some of the blame for the sub prime implosion. The influx of capital via generous warehouse lines and purchase agreements has created a moral hazard: one institution passes the figurative hot potato over to another, who in turn securitizes that risk and sells it to investors on the street.

    All you need to do is compare the industry today to the way it was back in the 70s and 80s: in the past, bankers would invest the time in improving the credit standing for a borrower with weak credit; today mortgage brokers--thanks to the ease of credit scoring and automated underwriting--thumb through their rolodex of sub prime account reps looking for the best deal to close the loan now.

    As a former insider, I can go on forever about the flaws in the industry.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 9:43 PM  

  • anonymous insider,

    Keep sharing your experience, I'm sure we (us outsiders) could all learn quite a bit from what you have to share.

    For example, maybe you can weigh in on why Countrywide would continue to underwrite risky sub-prime 100% LTV loans when it so obviously comes with significant drawbacks?

    Also, who do you think that press release was for anyway? It can't be that they had really intended on reaching the consumer through that channel...

    Could they really have been that concerned that consumers might have had the false understanding that 100% LTV mortgages were now no longer available?

    Could reductions in originations of that particular product be that important?

    By Blogger SoldAtTheTop, at 10:28 PM  

  • The "problem" itself is NOT 100% subprime loans. It is the 100% subprime loans that have stated income. Those that broker deals to Countrywide were over stating borrowers income BIG TIME. That is one reason why CW pulled the plug on allowing brokers access to these deals.

    A borrower can still go to Countrywide Reatil offices for these deals. The guidelines have tightened a little, but they are still available.

    By offering these deals strictly inhouse, they are more carefully regulated. (Less chance of false income stating).

    Subprime has been around and will always be around. As long as it is done right the risks are minimal.

    Greg

    By Anonymous Greg, at 1:49 PM  

  • Countrywide has eliminated all subprime loans > 90% LTV on their correspondent channel.

    By Blogger Michael, at 1:56 PM  

  • Subprime is not all bad, thus the 100% still performs well at specific credit scores and scenarios. There are some industry people that feel that subprime relies too much on FICO scores and that in the non prime world, you really have to look at the file as a whole. As a former underwriter (for 8 years) at a finance company, it was really difficult to go from a tradeline and file evaluation to score only. Not all 660 borrowers are the same, especially when there is "layered risk" on the file (like stated income, no realtor involved in a purchase, seller concessions, etc.). The fact that CW and others are still offering the 100% product doesn't mean they haven't assessed the risks involved, it means they've taken steps to adequately price for the risk, which is smart. I work for a competitor of CW and am not always a huge fan of their decisions (why do they still need a pay option ARM in subprime or even ALT A??? or an 80/20??) but I can see they're pulling out of the riskiest business to try and see if this storm is worth weathering...

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 3:22 PM  

  • Well,

    Id like to think it is as easy as being thorough with vetting the mortgage applications or eliminating the most risky products but lets not forget that the last few years (decade in some markets) were truely unprecedented.

    In terms of home prices, numbers of home buyers, percentage turnover of SFHs, percentage of sales to second/investment homes, MEW, etc. the housing and lending markets ran askew.

    We are seeing it all unwind now and it may be quite some time before the situation rights itself.

    By Blogger SoldAtTheTop, at 12:34 AM  

  • It amazes me how people post on here. You would think its the appocalypse. The subprime companies that are going under are the monoline companies that just offer subprime.

    Countrywide's subprime loan production is 7% of its total loan product origination. Hardly enough to Bankrupt them. People who don't have an understanding of the industry have no business questioning a company that has been around for over 35 years and is the largest lender in the U.S.

    This is so rediculous. Countrywide has eliminated all LTV's greater than 90% LTV on its correspondent channel and for a good reason. It doesn't want to see the smaller banks that sell their loans to to go under like the New Century's, etc. These high LTV loans especially stated are resulting in EPD's and fraud. If you don't know what an EPD is you shouldn't involve yourself in this discussion.

    Countrywide will likely continue to grow market share and come out of this mess in a dominant subpriime position along with Wells and Citi. These are the only banks that can weather this storm from due to their enormous wealth.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 3:00 AM  

  • Just a thought for everybody to think about. The government had everything to do with Subprime 100% going away. 620 will go My Community almost all day and if won't go there it WILL GO FHA now. MI is not available under 575 now, wonder why? The government. FHA has lost so much market share since the beginning of 2002 it's stupid. HUD now has less than 3% of the entire market share of mortgages. In 2001 they had somewhere between 17-21% depending on what study you look at. Think about the government losing about 15-18% of the volume out there! Multiply that percentage time the upfront MI charged on FHA (which is not refundable anymore) and you should understand why BC 100% is going away. Let HUD get there market share back up and everything will be back to normal!!!

    Just my opinion, but the government misses that upfront money! Anybody who does govies should know they have got a lot easier lately!!!

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 6:07 AM  

  • People need to slow down in their rush to indict the whole lending industry. There is no mass conspiracy here. The guidelines for many sub-prime lenders did get far too lax; there is no argument there. But lenders in this arena could not have made and sold those loans if there was not a market for them. I'm a broker and I work with Countrywide constantly. They have tightened guidelines but not nearly to the extent that others have. The reason is that they weren't very loose to begin with. The sub-prime division of CHL was more conservative than many other sub-prime co's and the A paper division, which accounts for some 97% of their loan business, has hardley adjusted guidelines at all. They haven't needed to. Some of those here have justified their comments by using rate sheets and the data that appears on them. Any one in the business can tell you that just because something appears on a rate sheet, there is no certainty that the guidelines will support it. Some of the loan combinations and guidelines quoted on this forum are incorrect. The media is rushing to judgement and is using some very strong terms in trying to cast lenders as evil predators. In reading many of the articles, it is evident that most of the writers know very little about the industry.

    By Anonymous Steve, at 4:59 PM  

  • I am currently working for Countrywide's Full Spectrum Lending Division which is the name of Countrywide's Subprime Department. Since the guidelines have been tightened so much recently from 90-100% CLTV, it is merely impossible for anyone to be approved for a loan. You are practically giving prime guidelines with subprime rates. Something that will not generate many loans. If someone has low LTV (less that 75%) they will be OK to get a reasonable loan, however anything above that is getting very ugly these days. I am making a move out of the subprime market even though Countrywide will still be there. They just wont make much money, which doesn't really matter for them because only 7% of Countrywides portfolio is Subprime.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:29 PM  

  • Yeah, well when RE goes down by 30 percent in value, none of these people are going to be able to refinance their way out. It is dangerous for many people to even buy houses under this cloud.

    By Anonymous Gary Anderson, at 3:55 PM  

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