This recurring monthly post tracks the latest results of the housing market seen in Arlington Massachusetts.
I choose Arlington as a
result of the Boston Globe’s recently published and absurdly anecdotal and ludicrous farce about the town’s “hot” housing market.
The ridiculous tone and outright mishandling of the housing data by the Boston Globe “reporter” would almost be comical if it weren’t for the fact that the
Globe’s editor, Martin Baron, ALSO blundered seriously when he responded to my email about the discrepancies.
Baron attempted to justify the articles contents and in so doing, he disclosed his poor and obviously unsophisticated abilities with even the most basic economic data.
October’s results again confirm that Arlington is by no means a “stand out” amongst its neighboring towns as Baron suggested in his email and, in fact, is following along on a path wholly consistent with the trend seen in the county, state, region and nation.
Why would an editor of a nationally recognized newspaper think that a single town would continue to function as an isolated bubble amongst a backdrop of the most significant nationwide housing recession since the Great Depression?
There are only three possible answers.
Either Baron...
(A) is a foolish and incompetent editor incapable of basic economic analysis
(B) likes ad revenues more than he likes to report the truth
(C) both A and B
I favor C.
Sadly, I have now had this very article cited to me, even by complete strangers, on at least eight occasions.
Most recently, an 80 year old local architect who should have known better given his many years of experience with numerous past downturns, but who had unfortunately placed too much trust in a newspaper that now essentially publishes propaganda, recounted the article and its numerous "facts" about Arlington's booming housing market.
Additionally, in a truly grotesque but not altogether surprising turn of events, Realtors in Arlington are now handing out copies of this article (view hideous exhibit A and B below!) during open houses in yet another shameless attempt to bamboozle buyers into confidence and activity.
October’s raw results (as reported by The Warren Group) show us the following for Arlington.
- Monthly median home sales price of $459,000.
- Year-to-Date median home sales price of $466,000, the lowest value since 2003.
- Monthly home sales count of 19.
- Year-to-Date home sales count of 289, a result on par with 2006 and 2005.
As I had shown in my prior post, this data when charted and compared to other towns in the region proves there are absolutely no grounds to call Arlington’s market exceptional.
The following chart (click for much larger version) shows how Arlington’s median sales price has changed since 1988, the first year the data was tracked by the Warren Group. Notice that while the current monthly result is clearly the most jagged and volatile measure, all three (monthly, year-to-date, and annual) measures are essentially saying the same thing, namely median prices are going down.
The next chart (click for much larger version) shows that home sales in Arlington have been essentially flat during the last 15 years, a result that is generally to be expected when looking only at the sales of one town in isolation.
The final chart shows how the year-to-date median sales price for Arlington, Bedford, Belmont, Cambridge and Lexington has changed since 1988. Notice that each town is essentially staying on the same track having made great strides during the boom and now firmly headed lower.
In review, the data shows that there is nothing exceptional about Arlington’s housing market proving clearly that the claims made in the Boston Globe article and later endorsed by its editor Martin Baron were entirely erroneous.
Please
let editor Baron know what you think of this misstep.
Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Pending Home Sales Report for March showing that pending home sales improved notably with the seasonally adjusted national index climbing 4.1% since February while increasing 12.8% above the level seen in March 2011.
Recently the Massachusetts Association of Realtors (MAR) released their Existing Home Sales Report for January showing that single family homes sales declined 32.4% from December but increased 13.1% above the level seen in January 2010 with detached single family median home prices falling 5.2% below the level seen last year.
Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Existing Home Sales Report for November showing a continuation of the epic government sponsored surge in home sales activity particularly for condos and lower end properties.
Below is a chart consolidating all the year-over-year changes reported by NAR in their most recent report.
Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Existing Home Sales Report for May indicating that home sales declining slightly on a year-over-year basis, despite the significant slide to median selling prices, record low interest rates and significant numbers of speculative sales of distressed properties in the western region.
Below is a chart consolidating all the year-over-year changes reported by NAR in their most recent report.
In another great post, expert analyst Ira Artman demonstrates very clearly that although seasonal adjustment is a very powerful tool for macroeconomic analysis, it’s not a perfect science.
Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Pending Home Sales Report for March showing a 1.1% year-over-year increase in pending home sales nationally but a surprisingly weak 1.7% year-over-year gain in pending sales seen in the heavily foreclosure laden markets of the west region.
The following chart shows the national pending home sales index along with the percent change on a year-over-year basis as well as the percent change from the peak set in 2005 (click for larger version).
Look at the Match seasonally adjusted pending home sales results and draw your own conclusion:
Here are two more excellent posts by expert analyst Ira Artman.
Today’s New Residential Construction Report continues to firmly demonstrate the intensity and completeness of the washout conditions that now exist in the nation’s housing markets particularly for new residential construction showing tremendous declines on both a peak and year-over-year basis to single family permits both nationally and across every region.
Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Existing Home Sales Report for May further confirming, perfectly clearly, the tremendous weakness in the demand of existing residential real estate with both single family homes and condos declining uniformly across the nation’s housing markets while inventory and supply remained elevated.
Today, the U.S. Census Department released its monthly New Residential Home Sales Report for January showing continued deterioration of the already hideous falloff in demand for new residential homes both nationally and in every region resulting in an astounding median sales price drop of 15.09%.
Look at the following summary of today’s report:
The next chart (click for much larger version) shows that home sales in Arlington have been essentially flat during the last 15 years, a result that is generally to be expected when looking only at the sales of one town in isolation.
The final chart shows how the year-to-date median sales price for Arlington, Bedford, Belmont, Cambridge and Lexington has changed since 1988. Notice that each town is essentially staying on the same track having made great strides during the boom and now firmly headed lower.
In review, the data shows that there is nothing exceptional about Arlington’s housing market proving clearly that the claims made in the Boston Globe article and later endorsed by its editor Martin Baron were entirely erroneous.