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Monday, July 14, 2008

An Open Letter To Representative. Frank

Here is the letter I sent last Friday to Representative Barney Frank as a follow-up to our March conversation.

July 11, 2008

Representative Frank,

Last March you and I exchanged several emails the contents of which initially concerned my opposition to the then proposed increase of the government sponsored enterprise (GSE) conforming loan limit but, our dialog inevitably broadened to a more general discussion and disagreement over the soundness of the federal government’s response to the housing-credit debacle, it’s complicit role in the development of this historic crisis and ultimately the final plight of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Within our exchange you essentially issued a challenge of our respective predictions for the fate of Fannie and Freddie when you wrote the following:

“I am glad to have your prediction that we will soon be engaged in a "federal bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac," because I disagree and this will give us some measure of the accuracy of our respective predictions in this regard.”

As we now see today, your outlook was seriously flawed.

To be blunt, I believe your inability to see the true nature and severity of the state of this issue not only represents a failure on your part but also truly embodies the extent to which our federal government has mishandled this economic crisis and more generally strayed from the path of prudent, deliberative and sound regulatory and legislative process.

However, I don’t believe your lack of understanding or our government’s overall failure to properly address the economic crisis to date represents a complete failure.

To the contrary, it appears plainly obvious that the worst and most dangerous legislative blundering has yet to come.

Your support of the further expansion of the role of the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) to effect insolvent borrowers, continued insistence that the temporary increase of the GSE conforming loan limits become permanent as well as all other permutations of radical public policy that would seek to bailout debt-laden and bankrupt homeowners (and firms by proxy) by some form of government supported continuation of the injurious effects of the massive housing-credit bubble environment, is more than simply irresponsible.

As chairman of the House Financial Services Committee your lack of a developed depth of knowledge and seemingly blind reliance on the “expert” statements voiced by “leaders” from the housing, mortgage and finance industries during committee meetings and likely during other, more private, conversations and the obvious effects this has had on our public policy is nothing short of disgraceful.

Again, to reiterate a statement I made in our prior conversation, what the American people need now is a legitimate government that will work diligently to restore the credibility, soundness and transparency of our financial markets and our economic system in general.

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10 Comments:

  • You should title your letter "Pwned!".

    By Anonymous Dagger, at 9:29 AM  

  • Damn. I'm not in a county that would let me vote this twit out. For the other Mass residents reading this, here is Frank's district:

    http://www.house.gov/frank/mauscongdist4.pdf

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:09 AM  

  • :-(

    Now that we have been given a measure of the accuracy in your predictions of this regard, Sold, do you believe Rep Frank will finally take a deep breath and admit that
    there is no legislative action which will correct the past 7 years of market folly?

    By Anonymous Matt Boyd, at 1:23 PM  

  • *sigh*
    Rarely you will find that anyone in power will admit to the truth. The very simple reason being that once they say 'X' is true, regardless if it is or not, it becomes true to the masses.
    You will never hear the President admit that the war was wrong, that the US is in recession, or that he had an inappropriate relationship with an intern (just so you all don't think I'm just picking on G.B.).

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 2:35 PM  

  • Dagger,

    Ha!

    anon,

    I really wish there was a way to unseat Rep. Frank. I think the career politicians are really the worst.

    Matt,

    Well, we know one thing. He reads the incoming emails.

    It sure would be a victory (albeit small) for representative democracy if he did respond but he is a career politician with, I suppose, an almost uncontested seat so whats in it for him... the ugly side of the representative democracy!

    Anon,

    Well said... exactly... whats the point of free markets or open government if it turns on information that is well known to be bunk... "there's no recession"... "there will be GROWTH in the second half"... I suppose thats nothing new though but it does seem pretty non-functional and inefficient.

    I've been reading a lot about the Great Depression recently and apparently that was pretty common back then... lots of denial until eventually the country was too far gone.

    The citizenry was really very desperate and susceptible to calls for revolution.

    That sort of got the government moving in a direction toward relief (the New Deal) and I suppose buried any form of denial.

    By Blogger SoldAtTheTop, at 4:29 PM  

  • The sad part was of course that New Deal only amplified the counterproductive government intervention programs introduced by Hoover. A garden variety economic depression (just like what had happened in 1920 and 1907) became The Great Depression under Hoover and FDR . . . as their "rescue" attempts prevented the washing out of malinvestments: the government took resources from correct investments to bailout malinvestments, plus bureacratic losses in the enforcement process. Eventually, FDR was busy looking for a war to fight in order to divert public attention. The Great Depression did not end until Truman quietly did away with many of Hoover and FDR's committees and regulatory bodies. Too bad, Truman did not get rid of Fannie and Freddie, or social security . . . we are paying the price of Hoover and FDR even today!

    By Anonymous Reality, at 5:21 PM  

  • Sold, you said, "the worst and most dangerous legislative blundering has yet to come." What do you think will be the result of those blunders? You seemed to have predicted the fall of Fannie and Freddie, so whats next? Of course I am somewhat assuming you believe the governments mishandling to the crisis has caused the fall of Fannie and Freddie.

    By Blogger Christina, at 7:37 PM  

  • reality,

    That's some good info on the Depression era.

    You know, I don't know how the unravel these things looking back.

    One of the book's I'm reading has interviews with depression survivors that were actually conducted in 1938-1939 (so still technically in the depression era) and they indicate that revolution was an real fear for the common man.

    It's hard for us now to really breath life into that feeling... that democracy might actually give way to some other form through some sort of violent social upheaval.

    I suppose that might have been an amplified fear brought by many years of a nation really beaten down but it must have, at least momentarily, seemed possible.

    In the end America, with its history/ideals of the strong independent and industrious entrepreneur/individual, was probably not really the right climate for total socialization but I guess the "New Deal" was sort of a middle ground.

    Not that I'm an advocate of social security and the like (not really feasible to maintain these programs over time, etc. etc.) but it is always possible that for a brief moment, the FDR programs may have seemed like a better of two evils type alternative.

    Christina,

    Well, I think that it will be a process primarily driven by the rate of deterioration in the performance their loans (both owned and guaranteed)...

    So the govt initiatives are both exacerbating the problem because they are enabling lending that should not be occurring... for example, the GSE jumbo loans are a complete fraud.

    By raising the limits they are simply ensuring that there will be more foreclosures in the future.

    There is an assumption that due diligence is square during the origination process.

    I don't think home appraisers can function properly in this market..

    I don't think expert investment bankers would know how to value a home in this climate.

    So, they are allowing government backed Jumbo loans for homes that have little certainty about their market value.

    Couple that with lower required down payments.. its just a continuation of the same mess.

    Now, I think this type of distortion effects the confidence of the investors buying the agency bonds...

    As default rates continue to climb, I don't think that it is hard to imagine that investors will account for the risk regardless of what the government says they will guarantee.

    The point is this... everyone knows that if the default rate continues to climb, the bailout will become ridiculously expensive...

    That has to give investors a need to seek a higher yield on that debt.. so rates will spike up causing a vicious circle (higher rates = less buying = weaker housing market = larger price declines = more foreclosure).

    We have only just begun to see the Alt-A products go bad and then there will be Jumbo ARMs, then prime Jumbo fixed rate loans, then finally the prime conforming loans.

    All loan products have to fail at higher than normal rates (actually probably historically high rates) before the process fully clears.

    Obviously, as a percentage, conforming fixed rate loans will fail at a lessor rate that the Alt-A loans but there are far greater actual numbers of the better, less toxic, loans so the effect is still very bad.

    The employment situation will really dive this deterioration as higher joblessness will equate to more foreclosures.

    So this is a complex problem and I don't necessarily think Fannie Freddie will simply collapse.. they are in the process of slowly keeling over... at some point though it is very possible that they simply won't be able to handle the losses and do in fact implode.

    That's the real doomsday scenario... we will be powerless to stop it because no one will have the political will to really deal with the numbers.

    We have seen that with social security and medicare... the numbers are so large and ominous that we just cover our ears and say "la la la la la la!" invoke temporary measures and hope it goes away.

    This is a real albatross for the future.

    By Blogger SoldAtTheTop, at 8:49 PM  

  • While i'm sure B Frank hates to be wrong...he is i'm sure happy about the current situation...this is just an opening for more big gov intervention

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:43 AM  

  • Anyone else notice new bank branches opening in their area?

    In my corner of a pretty wealthy county in NE NJ, it seems that there is a new bank branch opening every other month or so.

    It is really almost to the point of being absurd. In my small town there are now branches for no less than 6 banks, 2 local/NJ banks and at least 4 National/International banks.

    In a bordering town, a bit larger than my small town, there are 6 or 7 banks within one block, from corner to corner.

    What the heck? If the banking system is in such dire straights that we have to bail them out, how the heck are they expanding like this?

    Something smells. And I'm not just talking about Barney Frank and Chuckie Schumer.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:33 AM  

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