Today, the Department of Labor released their latest read of Joblessness showing seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims declined 38,000 to 550,000 claims from last week’s upwardly revised 588,000 claims while “continued” claims increased 69,000 resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 4.7%.
Both initial and continued claims continue to appear to be teasing out a peaking trend although, with the economy so systemically weak, there is a substantial risk for a second wave of accelerating joblessness as well as the almost certain outcome of a prolonged period of elevated joblessness.
Careful attention needs to be paid to these indices to see how they reflect the state of the job market as we move further into the second half of the year.
Now, looking at past cycles (especially the last two recessions), this does not imply that the pain is over in the job markets.
If history is to be at least a rudimentary guide, first time and continued unemployment claims will likely remain unusually high for at least another year or two (… as they had in the aftermath of both the early 90s bust and the dot-com bust).
Given the fragile state of the economy and the substantial financial stress being felt by so many millions of households, there are serious headwinds to any sustained recovery.
Further, the current weakness in the job market continues to present the clearest picture of what is likely to be one of the most problematic aspects of this period of economic crisis namely how to make an immense and growing number of highly specialized (college educated) service/professional service workers productive again.
It’s obvious now that we have reached the first real test of our majority services-based economy.
Unlike the “tech-wreck” of 2000-2002, our current downturn is very broad, leaving no sector and virtually no corner of the country untouched.
With millions of college educated workers now on the market incomes will clearly suffer but moreover, it will be soon all too clear that our prior bubble economy significantly overproduced service workers (particularly professional service workers) for which current employment opportunities will be scant resulting in continued and fundamental vicious-cycle effects.
The following chart shows the recent trend in initial non-seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims with the year-over-year percent change acting as a rough equivalent of a seasonally adjustment.
Historically, unemployment claims both “initial” and “continued” (ongoing claims) are a good leading indicator of the unemployment rate and inevitably the overall state of the economy.
I have added a chart to the lineup which shows “population adjusted” continued claims (ratio of unemployment claims to the non-institutional population) and the unemployment rate since 1967.
Adjusting for the general increase in population tames the continued claims spike down a bit.
The following chart (click for larger version) shows “initial” and “continued” claims, averaged monthly, overlaid with U.S. recessions since 1967 and from 2000.
As you can see, acceleration to claims generally precedes recessions.
Also, acceleration and deceleration of unemployment claims has generally preceded comparable movements to the unemployment rate by 3 – 8 months (click for larger version).
In the above charts you can see, especially for the last three post-recession periods, that there has generally been a steep decline in unemployment claims and the unemployment rate followed by a “flattening” period of employment and subsequently followed by even further declines to unemployment as growth accelerated.
This flattening period demarks the “mid-cycle slowdown” where for various reasons growth has generally slowed but then resumed with even stronger growth.
Until late 2007, one could make the case (as Fed chief Ben Bernanke surly did) that we were again experiencing simply a mid-cycle slowdown but now those hopes are long gone.
Adding a little more data shows that in the early 2000s we experienced a period of economic growth unlike the past several post-recession periods.
Look at the following chart (click for larger version) showing “initial” and “continued” unemployment claims, the ratio of non-farm payrolls to non-institutional population and single family building permits since 1967.
The most notable feature of the post-“dot com” recession era that is, unlike other recent post-recession eras, job growth had been very weak, not succeeding to reach trend growth as had minimally accomplished in the past.
Another feature is that housing was apparently buffeted by the response to the last recession, preventing it from fully correcting thus postponing the full and far more severe downturn to today.
It is now completely clear that the potential “mid-cycle” slowdown that appeared to be shaping up in late 2007, had been traded for a less severe downturn in the aftermath of the “dot-com” recession, and now has we have fully entered, instead, a mid-cycle meltdown.