Paper Economy - A US Real Estate Bubble Blog

Monday, August 31, 2009

Why No Dr. Boom?

For a few years now there has been a friendly competition of sorts going on between this era’s leading realists.

Peter Schiff, Nouriel Roubini and Marc Faber (… probably others) have all, at times, been referred to publicly as “Dr. Doom”.

Now I’m not suggesting that these “doomers” themselves are responsible for this rivalry, each has simply been tagged with this label by Wall Street types or members of the traditional media.

What’s curious though is to consider the fact that there is no counterpart… no person has been labeled as “Dr. Boom”.

More curious still… we who follow the financial media closely know that there are actual instances of individuals who have been so absurdly and publicly Bullish that they truly deserve the moniker of “Dr. Boom”… Larry Kudlow for one… as well as Brian Wesbury, Mark Perry, Jerry Bowyer, Don Luskin … so lack of a tag for these characters is perplexing.

Why no “Dr. Boom”?!...

I’ll tell you why… you are all Dr. Booms… America is a country of Dr. Booms!

There is no need to specifically identify a single Dr. Boom… Doom is a systemic outlier… Boom is the default… if you’re not Boom you’re automatically Doom… and you are in a minority… You’re either with Boom or you’re against Boom!

Though I’m treating it lightly here… there is something profound in this imbalance.

We have not had an “organic” boom since the 1990s (led by the real… albeit overblown… ubiquitous change of the internet and other revolutionary forms of communications) but still… we not only expect it… it’s the “de facto” expectation.

If we are not actively in the throes of a recessionary decline… then… we must be booming!

Although, given the circumstances of the last few years, many gladly welcome this sort of sentiment…. This is not a positive or optimistic sign… it’s a delusional one.

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12 Comments:

  • eh, just wait a few months and someone will take up the Dr Boom mantle. It's a good way for someone to get some PR.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 8:36 AM  

  • Peter Schiff is a fruitloop.

    By Anonymous Phil, at 2:21 PM  

  • In my experience, those that claim to have a cornerstone on reality are often those that have the more extreme views. They always insist that others are wrong but that they are the true arbiters of what is:

    "We are in Great Depression II. Housing prices will be down 90% from the peak and the dow will bottom out at 400 points. Some people call this pessimism, but I call it reality"

    "The jews are responsible for the destruction of the World Trade Center towers. The sheeple continue to believe that it was Al Quaeda terrorists - but I know better."

    "The Government has cretated a new currency the Amero which it is secretly sending to China to replace the Dollar in its upcoming default. All you fools who hold dollars have been warned!

    Do we now need to add SATT to that list?

    "Although, given the circumstances of the last few years, many gladly welcome this sort of sentiment…. This is not a positive or optimistic sign… it’s a delusional one."

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 2:27 PM  

  • Anon from 2:27, how about you address what SoldAtTheTop actually wrote rather than making up lame straw man quotes?

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 3:25 PM  

  • I nominate Mike Norman for Dr. Boom.

    Mike Norman as Dr. Boom: Debtor Nations are Good!

    aka Mikedoggy (really! LOL)

    By Blogger Tyrone, at 9:43 PM  

  • amazing how it took nearly 2 years to officially say we were in a recession....but a couple months of upticks and the claim "we're out!" comes forth with great ease.

    it is a paperd over economy at the moment...just like the blogs name.

    the relaxed accounting rules...I contend..are just forestalling the eventual truth from being told

    static

    By Blogger static, at 2:35 AM  

  • Nice insight about the contrast and also from "static" about the contrast between the speed at which recovery is claimed and the lag in recognizing the recession. Some time before the recession was declared I emailed one of those talk shows to ask the Boomer guests how we are not in a recession when inflation is greater than gdp, and they just shrugged. Now I'd like to see some charts on this blog that show us what the growth figures look like if we extract the artificial boom of the bailout. Then take away the home and car purchases subsidized by taxes, since that piper must be paid too. I bet the reality looks close to free fall. Meanwhile the boomers hail the currently rising stock prices as a sign of recovery, just like the dotcom boom was real, and the housing boom was real...hey, there's no Dr Boom here, move along...or be labeled a doomsayer. Okay, I'm a doomsayer. When irrational exuberance is promoted from disease to cure, and smoke and mirrors is the foundation for economic growth, only the madoffs call it "boom".

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 6:27 AM  

  • Anon from 3:25... thanks...

    Tyrone,

    That Mike Norman has got a screw loose... I think you may be right on him being the best candidate for Dr. Boom... on a side note... I nominate me as Dr. Gloom.

    Static,

    That is a great point and just another reason to expect the current mania to end... its as fake as the contrived sentiment that kept pundits on CNBC spinning yarns about "no recession" all the way up to the December 1 2008 NBER announcement.

    Anon 6:27,

    I think you would find just about what you would expect.. the expansion between 2002 and 2007 was not real... it was a economy wide bear market rally fueled by a crescendo of debt and consumption.

    The housing consumption boom was the most extreme phase of the consumption boom...

    By Blogger SoldAtTheTop, at 9:11 AM  

  • huh, there is pleny of bulls. how about Abby Joseph Cohen?

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 8:19 PM  

  • Lets break it down

    Peter Schiff - needs to get a job and make something that will say Made in USA instead of bashing the us economy, maybe finally he should get himself one way ticket to Rio or Singapore (join his buddy Jim Rogers)

    Nouriel Roubini as an academic nothing more.

    Marc Faber although the best of them sometimes his gloom and doom scenarios remind me of year 999 in Europe and the Crusades.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 8:22 PM  

  • "Nouriel Roubini as an academic nothing more."

    Hey SoldAtTheTop, I think your anona-troll is Jim Cramer. (Dismissing someone as just "academic" was a well known ad hominem attack of his.)

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 9:12 AM  

  • I agree... plus I'm not sure I understand the bad sentiment toward Schiff, Roubini and Faber and the others that delivered the bear position.. they were totally right!

    By Blogger SoldAtTheTop, at 11:51 AM  

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