Monday, December 14, 2009

Confidence Game: Consumer, CEO and Investor Confidence December 2009

This post combines the latest results of the Rueters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers, the Conference Board’s Index of CEO Confidence and the State Street Global Markets Index of Investor Confidence indicators.

These three indicators should disclose a clear picture of the overall sense of confidence (or lack thereof) on the part of consumers, businesses and investors as the current recessionary period develops.

The recent early release of the Reuters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers for December showed an increase in consumer sentiment with a reading of 73.4, a increase of 22.13% above the level seen in December 2008.

The Index of Consumer Expectations (an important component of the Conference Board’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators) increased to 69.7 resting 29.07% above the result seen in December 2008.

As for the current circumstances, the Current Economic Conditions Index decreased to 79.1 or 13.81% above the result seen in December 2008.

The latest quarterly results (Q3 2009) of The Conference Board’s CEO Confidence Index climbed to a value of 63 indicating that CEOs are more optimistic about their future prospects.

The November release of the State Street Global Markets Index of Investor Confidence indicated that confidence for North American institutional investors increased 1.1% since October while European confidence increased 3.7% and Asian investor confidence declined 4.1% all resulting in an decrease of 7.6% to the aggregate Global Investor Confidence Index which now rests 19.57% above the result seen last year.

The chart below (click for larger version) shows the Global Investor Confidence aggregate index.