Thursday, March 18, 2010

Extended Unemployment: Initial, Continued and Extended Unemployment Claims March 18 2010

Today’s jobless claims report showed a slight decline to initial claims while also indicating a small increase to the continued claims series while continued claims including extended benefits appear to be continuing to mount.

Seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims declined by 5,000 to 457,000 claims from last week’s revised 462,000 claims while “continued” claims increased by 12,000 resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 3.5%.

Since the middle of 2008 though, two federal government sponsored “extended” unemployment benefit programs (the “extended benefits” and “EUC 2008” from recent legislation) have been picking up claimants that have fallen off of the traditional unemployment benefits rolls.

Currently there are some 6 million people receiving federal “extended” unemployment benefits.

Taken together with the latest 5.5 million people that are currently counted as receiving traditional continued unemployment benefits, there are well over 11 million people on state and federal unemployment rolls.

The following chart shows the recent trend in initial non-seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims with the year-over-year percent change acting as a rough equivalent of a seasonally adjustment.

Historically, unemployment claims both “initial” and “continued” (ongoing claims) are a good leading indicator of the unemployment rate and inevitably the overall state of the economy.

The following chart shows “population adjusted” continued claims (ratio of unemployment claims to the non-institutional population) and the unemployment rate since 1967.

Adjusting for the general increase in population tames the continued claims spike down a bit.

The following chart (click for larger version) shows “initial” and “continued” claims, averaged monthly, overlaid with U.S. recessions since 1967.

Also, acceleration and deceleration of unemployment claims has generally preceded comparable movements to the unemployment rate by 3 – 8 months (click for larger version).

2 comments:

  1. US Representatives and Senators are LAWYERS. Thus, I recommend our recommendation for a new Tier or Tier IV Extension take the form of an “Investment Memorandum,” (i.e., “IM”) as we’re asking the country to invest in its citizens further. IM’s need an Executive Summary to attract investors. A Sample format follows FYI and use.

    Please help the effort by filling in the blank spaces in the template below with yours creativity and share the resulting DRAFT with us!

    SUMMARY
    The following summary is qualified in its entirety by the detailed information appearing elsewhere in this
    private placement memorandum. See “Risk Factors” for information to be considered by prospective investors. All information in this private placement memorandum assumes a ten-for-one stock split, various
    modifications to the terms of the Existing Preferred Stock, and the conversion of certain outstanding debt into Series E Preferred Stock.

    The Company

    Introduction

    We, the People, provide solutions that ____________________________________. These solutions include providing
    ______________________________________________________. We believe we differentiate our services by
    __________________________________________.
    The principal services we provide for ________________________________ currently include the
    following:
    ·
    ·
    Market Opportunity and Strategy
    ______________________ reports that the _____ long term unemployed was ___ million in March, 2010 and is estimated to
    grow to ___ million US citizens by the end of 2010. The Federal Reserve, OMB and others predict that by 2011, more than __ million US citizens, including (fill in a reasonable percentage here, i.e., twenty percent) of the U.S. work force, will be engaging in some form of unemployment benefits.

    We believe the following are key driving forces behind our country’s current market opportunity:
    ı the growth of ____________________________,
    ı the increasing demand for __________________,
    ı the increase in ________________,
    ı the increasing demand for _______________, and
    ı the adoption of ____________________________.
    Our goal is to be a leading provider of solutions that ____________________________
    ___________________________________. Key elements of the strategy to achieve this goal include the following:
    ·Continue Extended Unemployment Benefits through 2010
    ·(Add other)
    ·(Add other)
    ·
    Principal Offices
    Our principal offices are located at ____________________________, _________________________,
    telephone (___) ___________, facsimile (___) ___________. We were incorporated in Philadelphia in 1776.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Anonymous4:33 PM

    For those of us who are currently unemployed and struggling with this fact daily:

    http://www.squidoo.com/101-ways-to-not-lose-your-mind-when-unemployed

    ReplyDelete