Tuesday, March 16, 2010

Fire Burn and Cauldron Bubble!

"Alas poor mini-housing bubble, we hardly knew ye!"

At this point all eyes should be firmly glued to the excellent daily home price indices produced by Radar Logic.

We have come to the point at which a majority of the nation’s housing markets are sitting at, just above or well below the pricing levels seen during March of 2009.

In fact, several markets have even recently broken down below the pricing level seen in the year 2000 (more on this in a later post).

Combined, all of this weakness has worked to put downward pressure on the 25 market composite index, thwarting any chances for annual appreciation and bringing ever nearer the
specter of a new post-panic low for prices.

Although the government-sponsored bounce worked breathe life into residential real estate, a feat that will be likely repeated as we draw closer to the second tax credit
expiration, the effects were essentially temporary.

What we are seeing today is an overarching declining trend even despite the massive government sponsored stimulus (tax credit, quantitatively eased interest rates, foreclosure
mitigation, etc.).

Many markets, particularly those on the east-coast, are still very vulnerable to price deflation as their current levels are not borne out by long term historic trends.