Monday, July 25, 2011

More Pain, Less Gain: S&P/Case-Shiller Preview for May 2011

As I demonstrated in prior posts, given their strong correlation, the home price indices provided daily by Radar Logic, averaged monthly, can effectively be used as a preview of the monthly S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices.

The current Radar Logic 25 MSA Composite data reported on residential real estate transactions (condos, multi and single family homes) that settled as late as May 23 and averaged for the month indicates that with increasing spring transactions has come increasing prices (the typical trend) with the national index increasing 1.14% since April but still remaining 5.89% below the level seen in May 2010.

The Radar Logic index will likely be capturing an uptrend in prices from now until mid-summer when transactions generally start to turn down again.

Look for tomorrow's S&P/Case-Shiller home price report to reflect this trend though to a lesser degree due to its three month rolling-average nature with prices moderately higher.