ECRI Weekly Leading Index: November 18 2011

The latest release of the Economic Cycle Research Institute’s (ECRI) Weekly Leading Index weakened slightly falling to 121.8 from last week resulting in the all important annualized “growth” component showing a value of -7.9 and continuing suggest a recession call on the part of the ECRI’s economics staff .

The chart above shows the ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index growth component since 2001.

Notice that this index has turned notably negative which, along with an erosion in many other key macro-economic series, appears to be signaling that the probability of recession is high.

For a very entertaining debate over the ECRI leading index and the recent recession call watch this clip of ECRI's Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan on CNBCs Squawk Box.