On a year-over-year basis, real GDP increased 2.48% while the quarter-to-quarter non-annualized percent change was an increase of 0.65%.
Friday, January 30, 2015
GDP: Q4 2014 (First Estimate)
Today, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released their first "estimate" of the Q4 2014 GDP report showing that the economy grew strongly in the third quarter with real GDP improving at an annualized rate of 2.6% from Q3 2014.
On a year-over-year basis, real GDP increased 2.48% while the quarter-to-quarter non-annualized percent change was an increase of 0.65%.
On a year-over-year basis, real GDP increased 2.48% while the quarter-to-quarter non-annualized percent change was an increase of 0.65%.
Thursday, January 29, 2015
Pending Home Sales: December 2014
Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Pending Home Sales Report for December showing that pending home sales declined notably with the seasonally adjusted national index dropping 3.7% from November but still remaining 6.1% above the level seen in December 2013.
The following chart shows the seasonally adjusted national pending home sales index along with the percent change on a year-over-year basis as well as the percent change from the peak set in 2005 (click for larger version).
The following chart shows the seasonally adjusted national pending home sales index along with the percent change on a year-over-year basis as well as the percent change from the peak set in 2005 (click for larger version).
Tuesday, January 27, 2015
New Home Sales: December 2014
Today, the U.S. Census Department released its monthly New Residential Home Sales Report for December showing sales jumping 11.6% from November and rising 8.8% above the level seen in December 2013 but still remaining near an historically low level with 481K SAAR units.
The monthly supply declined to 5.5 months while the median selling price increased 8.20% and the average selling price increased 17.62% from the year ago level.
The following chart show the extent of sales decline to date (click for full-larger version).
The monthly supply declined to 5.5 months while the median selling price increased 8.20% and the average selling price increased 17.62% from the year ago level.
The following chart show the extent of sales decline to date (click for full-larger version).
S&P/Case-Shiller: November 2014
The 10-city composite index increased 4.17% as compared to November 2013 while the 20-city composite increased 4.31% over the same period.
Both of the broad composite indices still show significant peak declines slumping -20.55% for the 10-city national index and -19.42% for the 20-city national index on a peak comparison basis.
Wednesday, January 21, 2015
New Residential Construction Report: December 2014
Today’s New Residential Construction Report showed mixed results with total permit activity declining 1.9% since November while total starts increased 4.4% over the same period.
Single family housing permits, the most leading of indicators, increased 4.5% from November to 667K single family units (SAAR), and rose 8.1% below the level seen in December 2013 and still remained well below levels seen at the peak in September 2005.
Single family housing permits, the most leading of indicators, increased 4.5% from November to 667K single family units (SAAR), and rose 8.1% below the level seen in December 2013 and still remained well below levels seen at the peak in September 2005.
Reading Rates: MBA Application Survey – January 21 2015
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages as well as the volume of both purchase and refinance applications.
The purchase application index has been highlighted as a particularly important data series as it very broadly captures the demand side of residential real estate for both new and existing home purchases.
The latest data is showing that the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage (from FHA and conforming GSE data) decreased 5 basis points to 3.77% since last week while the purchase application volume declined 3% and the refinance application volume jumped 22% over the same period.
In the last two weeks, there has been a notable 16 basis point decline in interest rates stimulating a whopping 88% jump in refinance applications and 21% jump in purchase applications and rates appear to be headed even lower.
The following chart shows the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages since 2006 as well as the purchase, refinance and composite loan volumes (click for larger dynamic full-screen version).
The purchase application index has been highlighted as a particularly important data series as it very broadly captures the demand side of residential real estate for both new and existing home purchases.
The latest data is showing that the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage (from FHA and conforming GSE data) decreased 5 basis points to 3.77% since last week while the purchase application volume declined 3% and the refinance application volume jumped 22% over the same period.
In the last two weeks, there has been a notable 16 basis point decline in interest rates stimulating a whopping 88% jump in refinance applications and 21% jump in purchase applications and rates appear to be headed even lower.
The following chart shows the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages since 2006 as well as the purchase, refinance and composite loan volumes (click for larger dynamic full-screen version).
Tuesday, January 20, 2015
NAHB/Wells Fargo Home Builder Sentiment: January 2015
Today, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) released their latest Housing Market Index (HMI) showing that overall assessments of housing activity went flat in January with the composite HMI index remaining at 57 while the "buyer traffic" index declined to a level of 44 from 46 in the prior month.
Overall, conditions for new home construction appear to have softened some recently and still remain below the peak assessments see prior to the Great Recession.
Overall, conditions for new home construction appear to have softened some recently and still remain below the peak assessments see prior to the Great Recession.
Friday, January 16, 2015
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: December 2014
Today, the Federal Reserve released their monthly read of industrial production and capacity utilization showing an decrease in December with total industrial production falling 0.11% since November but climbing 4.88% above the level seen in December 2013.
Capacity utilization also declined falling 0.38% from November but climbing 1.64% above the level seen in December 2013 to stand at 79.74%
Capacity utilization also declined falling 0.38% from November but climbing 1.64% above the level seen in December 2013 to stand at 79.74%
Thursday, January 15, 2015
Weekly Unemployment Claims: Initial and Continued January 15 2015
Today’s jobless claims report showed a sharp increase to initial unemployment claims and an decrease to insured unemployment claims as seasonally adjusted initial claims jumped above the 300K level.
Seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims increased a notable 19,000 to 316,000 claims while seasonally adjusted “continued” claims declined by 51,000 to 2.424 million resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 1.8%.
Seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims increased a notable 19,000 to 316,000 claims while seasonally adjusted “continued” claims declined by 51,000 to 2.424 million resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 1.8%.
Wednesday, January 07, 2015
Reading Rates: MBA Application Survey – January 07 2015
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages as well as the volume of both purchase and refinance applications.
The purchase application index has been highlighted as a particularly important data series as it very broadly captures the demand side of residential real estate for both new and existing home purchases.
The latest data is showing that the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage (from FHA and conforming GSE data) decreased 4 basis points to 3.94% since last week while the purchase application volume declined 5% and the refinance application volume declined 12% over the same period.
The following chart shows the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages since 2006 as well as the purchase, refinance and composite loan volumes (click for larger dynamic full-screen version).
The purchase application index has been highlighted as a particularly important data series as it very broadly captures the demand side of residential real estate for both new and existing home purchases.
The latest data is showing that the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage (from FHA and conforming GSE data) decreased 4 basis points to 3.94% since last week while the purchase application volume declined 5% and the refinance application volume declined 12% over the same period.
The following chart shows the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages since 2006 as well as the purchase, refinance and composite loan volumes (click for larger dynamic full-screen version).
ADP National Employment Report: December 2014
Today, private staffing and business services firm ADP released the latest installment of their National Employment Report indicating that the situation for private employment in the U.S. improved in December as private employers added 240,000 jobs in the month bringing the total employment level 2.19% above the level seen in December 2013.
Look for Friday’s (possibly postponed) BLS Employment Situation Report to likely show somewhat similar trends.
Look for Friday’s (possibly postponed) BLS Employment Situation Report to likely show somewhat similar trends.
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