You’ve Gotta ask Yourself One Question

Do you feel your economy will get lucky? … Well do you, punk!?

I for one believe that the path of least resistance is down at this point and to that end I offer the following data-point coming from today’s release of the Chicago National Activity Index (CFNAI).

The following chart shows the very sensitive diffusion index that the Chicago Fed distills from the other CFNAI measures.

Notice that while this measure improved slightly from last month, its current level of -0.12 is notably weak as well comes just two months after the October level of -0.23, the lowest level seen during our latest economic expansion and caps an entire year of values that appear to be generally trending down.

The Chicago Fed considers the crossing of -0.35 of this measure as a “[signal] of the increased likelihood of the beginning (from above) and the end of a recession (from below)”, so while we are not yet at that threshold, given the current trends (recessionary manufacturing sector, mounting inventories, deflating commodities, falling stocks and wealth effect, etc.) you’ve got to ask yourself one question… will the economy get lucky?

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index: December 2015

The latest release of the Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index (CFNAI) indicated that the national economic activity remained weak in December with the index improving slightly to a weak level of -0.22 from a level of -0.36 a month earlier while the three month moving average weakened to a level of -0.24.

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity collected into four overall categories of “production and income”, “employment, unemployment and income”, “personal consumption and housing” and “sales, orders and inventories”.

The Chicago Fed regards a value of zero for the total index as indicating that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate while a negative value indicates below average growth.

A value at or below -0.70 for the three month moving average of the national activity index (CFNAI-MA3) indicates that the national economy has either just entered or continues in recession.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index: December 2011

Today’s release of the Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index (CFNAI) improved though continued to indicate weakness in national economic trends with the index climbing to a tepid 0.17 while the three month moving average improved to -0.08.

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity collected into four overall categories of “production and income”, “employment, unemployment and income”, “personal consumption and housing” and “sales, orders and inventories”.

The Chicago Fed regards a value of zero for the total index as indicating that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate while a negative value indicates below average growth.

A value at or below -0.70 for the three month moving average of the national activity index (CFNAI-MA3) indicates that the national economy has either just entered or continues in recession.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index: October 2011

Today’s release of the Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index (CFNAI) continued to indicate weakness in national economic trends with the index remaining in contraction territory for a third consecutive month at -0.13 while the three month moving average declined to -0.27.

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity collected into four overall categories of “production and income”, “employment, unemployment and income”, “personal consumption and housing” and “sales, orders and inventories”.

The Chicago Fed regards a value of zero for the total index as indicating that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate while a negative value indicates below average growth.

A value at or below -0.70 for the three month moving average of the national activity index (CFNAI-MA3) indicates that the national economy has either just entered or continues in recession.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index: June 2011

Today’s release of the Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index (CFNAI) indicated that national economic remained weak in June with the index remaining in contraction territory for the third consecutive month at -0.46 while the three month moving average declined to -0.60, a slight 10 points above the Feds official recessionary mark.

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity collected into four overall categories of “production and income”, “employment, unemployment and income”, “personal consumption and housing” and “sales, orders and inventories”.

The Chicago Fed regards a value of zero for the total index as indicating that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate while a negative value indicates below average growth.

A value at or below -0.70 for the three month moving average of the national activity index (CFNAI-MA3) indicates that the national economy has either just entered or continues in recession.

It’s important to note that at -0.60, the current three month average index value is indicating that contraction may be in the offing.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index: April 2011

Today’s release of the Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index (CFNAI) indicated that national economic activity slowed notably in April with the index falling into contraction territory of -0.45 while the three month moving declined to -0.12.

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity collected into four overall categories of “production and income”, “employment, unemployment and income”, “personal consumption and housing” and “sales, orders and inventories”.

The Chicago Fed regards a value of zero for the total index as indicating that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate while a negative value indicates below average growth.

A value at or below -0.70 for the three month moving average of the national activity index (CFNAI-MA3) indicates that the national economy has either just entered or continues in recession.

It’s important to note that at -0.12, the current three month average index value is indicating that contraction may be in the offing.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index: March 2011

Today’s release of the Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index (CFNAI) indicated that national economic activity increased in March with the index climbing to 0.26 while the three month moving declined slightly to 0.20.

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity collected into four overall categories of “production and income”, “employment, unemployment and income”, “personal consumption and housing” and “sales, orders and inventories”.

The Chicago Fed regards a value of zero for the total index as indicating that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate while a negative value indicates below average growth.

A value at or below -0.70 for the three month moving average of the national activity index (CFNAI-MA3) indicates that the national economy has either just entered or continues in recession.

It’s important to note that at 0.20, the current three month average index value is indicating weak trend growth.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index: October 2010

Today’s release of the Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index (CFNAI) indicated that national economic activity remained in contraction in October with the index improving slightly to -0.28 while the three month moving average dropped to -0.46.

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity collected into four overall categories of “production and income”, “employment, unemployment and income”, “personal consumption and housing” and “sales, orders and inventories”.

The Chicago Fed regards a value of zero for the total index as indicating that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate while a negative value indicates below average growth.

A value at or below -0.70 for the three month moving average of the national activity index (CFNAI-MA3) indicates that the national economy has either just entered or continues in recession.

It’s important to note that at -0.46 the current three month average index value is indicating extremely weak growth nearing the recessionary level of -0.70.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index: December 2009

Yesterday’s release of the Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index (CFNAI) indicated that national economic activity nearly contracted again in December with two of four component indices declining and with the personal consumption and housing component showing the weakest results.

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity collected into four overall categories of “production and income”, “employment, unemployment and income”, “personal consumption and housing” and “sales, orders and inventories”.

The Chicago Fed regards a value of zero for the total index as indicating that the national is expanding at its historical trend rate while a negative value indicate below average growth.

A value at or below -0.70 for the three month moving average of the national activity index (CFNAI-MA3) indicates that the national economy has either just entered or continues in recession.

It’s important to note that at -0.61 the current three month average index value is very near the official recessionary indicator mark.

The following charts (click for full-screen interactive zoom-able version) plot the national activity index as well all of its four components.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index: November 2009

Today’s release of the Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index (CFNAI) indicated that national economic activity contracted again in November with three of four component indices declining and with the personal consumption and housing component showing the weakest results.

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity collected into four overall categories of “production and income”, “employment, unemployment and income”, “personal consumption and housing” and “sales, orders and inventories”.

The Chicago Fed regards a value of zero for the total index as indicating that the national is expanding at its historical trend rate while a negative value indicate below average growth.

A value at or below -0.70 for the three month moving average of the national activity index (CFNAI-MA3) indicates that the national economy has either just entered or continues in recession.

It’s important to note that at -0.77 the current three month average index value is well within the official recessionary indicator mark while October’s literal value has strengthened a bit to just -0.32.

The following charts (click for full-screen interactive zoom-able version) plot the national activity index as well all of its four components.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index: October 2009

Today’s release of the Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index (CFNAI) indicated that national economic activity contracted in October with all four component indices declining and with the employment and personal consumption and housing components showing the weakest results.

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity collected into four overall categories of “production and income”, “employment, unemployment and income”, “personal consumption and housing” and “sales, orders and inventories”.

The Chicago Fed regards a value of zero for the total index as indicating that the national is expanding at its historical trend rate while a negative value indicate below average growth.

A value at or below -0.70 for the three month moving average of the national activity index (CFNAI-MA3) indicates that the national economy has either just entered or continues in recession.

It’s important to note that at -0.91 the current three month average index value is well within the official recessionary indicator mark while October’s literal value dropped to -1.08, well below the recessionary mark.

The following charts (click for full-screen interactive zoom-able version) plot the national activity index as well all of its four components.

Whichever Way the Windy City Blows – The Chicago Feds National Activity Index September 2009

Today’s release of the Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index (CFNAI) indicated that national economic activity pulled back slightly in September mostly as a result of a notable decline in the personal consumption and housing component.

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity collected into four overall categories of “production and income”, “employment, unemployment and income”, “personal consumption and housing” and “sales, orders and inventories”.

The Chicago Fed regards a value of zero for the total index as indicating that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate while a negative value indicate below average growth.

A value at or below -0.70 for the three month moving average of the national activity index (CFNAI-MA3) indicates that the national economy has either just entered or continues in recession.

It’s important to note that at -0.63 the current three month average index value remained just slightly above the official recessionary indicator mark while September’s literal value dropped to -0.81, well below the recessionary mark.

The following charts (click for full-screen interactive zoom-able version) plot the national activity index as well all of its four components.