The Chicago Fed National Activity Index: July 2013

The latest release of the Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index (CFNAI) indicated that the national economy remained near contraction in July with the index improving to weak level of -0.15 from a level of -0.23 in June while the three month moving average improved to a level of -0.15.

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity collected into four overall categories of “production and income”, “employment, unemployment and income”, “personal consumption and housing” and “sales, orders and inventories”.

The Chicago Fed regards a value of zero for the total index as indicating that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate while a negative value indicates below average growth.

A value at or below -0.70 for the three month moving average of the national activity index (CFNAI-MA3) indicates that the national economy has either just entered or continues in recession.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index: December 2011

Today’s release of the Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index (CFNAI) improved though continued to indicate weakness in national economic trends with the index climbing to a tepid 0.17 while the three month moving average improved to -0.08.

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity collected into four overall categories of “production and income”, “employment, unemployment and income”, “personal consumption and housing” and “sales, orders and inventories”.

The Chicago Fed regards a value of zero for the total index as indicating that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate while a negative value indicates below average growth.

A value at or below -0.70 for the three month moving average of the national activity index (CFNAI-MA3) indicates that the national economy has either just entered or continues in recession.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index: October 2011

Today’s release of the Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index (CFNAI) continued to indicate weakness in national economic trends with the index remaining in contraction territory for a third consecutive month at -0.13 while the three month moving average declined to -0.27.

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity collected into four overall categories of “production and income”, “employment, unemployment and income”, “personal consumption and housing” and “sales, orders and inventories”.

The Chicago Fed regards a value of zero for the total index as indicating that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate while a negative value indicates below average growth.

A value at or below -0.70 for the three month moving average of the national activity index (CFNAI-MA3) indicates that the national economy has either just entered or continues in recession.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index: September 2011

Today’s release of the Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index (CFNAI) continued to indicate the weakness of national economic trends with the index remaining in contraction territory at -0.22 while the three month moving average improved slightly to -0.21.

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity collected into four overall categories of “production and income”, “employment, unemployment and income”, “personal consumption and housing” and “sales, orders and inventories”.

The Chicago Fed regards a value of zero for the total index as indicating that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate while a negative value indicates below average growth.

A value at or below -0.70 for the three month moving average of the national activity index (CFNAI-MA3) indicates that the national economy has either just entered or continues in recession.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index: August 2011

Today’s release of the Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index (CFNAI) indicated notable weakness of national economic trends for August with the index remaining in contraction territory at -0.43 while the three month moving average declined slightly to -0.28.

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity collected into four overall categories of “production and income”, “employment, unemployment and income”, “personal consumption and housing” and “sales, orders and inventories”.

The Chicago Fed regards a value of zero for the total index as indicating that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate while a negative value indicates below average growth.

A value at or below -0.70 for the three month moving average of the national activity index (CFNAI-MA3) indicates that the national economy has either just entered or continues in recession.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index: April 2011

Today’s release of the Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index (CFNAI) indicated that national economic activity slowed notably in April with the index falling into contraction territory of -0.45 while the three month moving declined to -0.12.

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity collected into four overall categories of “production and income”, “employment, unemployment and income”, “personal consumption and housing” and “sales, orders and inventories”.

The Chicago Fed regards a value of zero for the total index as indicating that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate while a negative value indicates below average growth.

A value at or below -0.70 for the three month moving average of the national activity index (CFNAI-MA3) indicates that the national economy has either just entered or continues in recession.

It’s important to note that at -0.12, the current three month average index value is indicating that contraction may be in the offing.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index: February 2011

Today’s release of the Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index (CFNAI) indicated that national economic activity slowed in February with the index weakening to -0.04 while the three month moving increased to 0.11.

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity collected into four overall categories of “production and income”, “employment, unemployment and income”, “personal consumption and housing” and “sales, orders and inventories”.

The Chicago Fed regards a value of zero for the total index as indicating that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate while a negative value indicates below average growth.

A value at or below -0.70 for the three month moving average of the national activity index (CFNAI-MA3) indicates that the national economy has either just entered or continues in recession.

It’s important to note that at 0.11, the current three month average index value is indicating weak trend growth.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index: January 2010

Today’s release of the Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index (CFNAI) indicated that national economic activity continued to improve in January with only the "personal consumption and housing" component showing significant weakness.

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity collected into four overall categories of “production and income”, “employment, unemployment and income”, “personal consumption and housing” and “sales, orders and inventories”.

The Chicago Fed regards a value of zero for the total index as indicating that the national is expanding at its historical trend rate while a negative value indicate below average growth.

A value at or below -0.70 for the three month moving average of the national activity index (CFNAI-MA3) indicates that the national economy has either just entered or continues in recession.

It’s important to note that at -0.16 the current three month average index value is indicating very weak growth after several recent months of intermittent recessionary and near recessionary growth.

The "personal consumption and housing" component, on the other hand, is continuing to show very weak results and at -.45, is at a level only marginally better than the worst levels seen this cycle.

The following charts (click for full-screen interactive zoom-able version) plot the national activity index as well all of its four components.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index: October 2009

Today’s release of the Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index (CFNAI) indicated that national economic activity contracted in October with all four component indices declining and with the employment and personal consumption and housing components showing the weakest results.

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity collected into four overall categories of “production and income”, “employment, unemployment and income”, “personal consumption and housing” and “sales, orders and inventories”.

The Chicago Fed regards a value of zero for the total index as indicating that the national is expanding at its historical trend rate while a negative value indicate below average growth.

A value at or below -0.70 for the three month moving average of the national activity index (CFNAI-MA3) indicates that the national economy has either just entered or continues in recession.

It’s important to note that at -0.91 the current three month average index value is well within the official recessionary indicator mark while October’s literal value dropped to -1.08, well below the recessionary mark.

The following charts (click for full-screen interactive zoom-able version) plot the national activity index as well all of its four components.