S&P/Case-Shiller: February 2016

The latest release of the S&P/Case-Shiller (CSI) home price indices for February reported that the non-seasonally adjusted National index increased slightly from January with prices rising 0.20% while the non-seasonally adjusted Composite-10 city index increased 0.12% and the Composite-20 city index increased 0.19% over the same period.

On an annual basis, the National index increased 5.29% above the level seen in February 2015 while the Composite-10 city index increased 4.61% and the Composite-20 city index increased 5.38% over the same period.

On a peak basis, all three indices still show significant peak declines slumping -4.88% for the National index, -12.94% for the Composite-10 city index and -11.49% for the Composite-20 city index on a peak comparison basis.

FHFA Monthly Home Prices: March 2015

Today, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) released the latest results of their monthly house price index (HPI) showing that in March, nationally, home prices increased 0.34% from February rising 5.16% above the level seen in March 2014.

The FHFA monthly HPI are formulated from home purchase information collected from mortgages that have been sold to or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Conspicuous Correlation: Retail Sales January 2013

Today, the U.S. Census Bureau released its latest nominal read of retail sales showing an increase of 0.1% from December and an increase of 4.4% on a year-over-year basis on an aggregate of all items including food, fuel and healthcare services.

Nominal "discretionary" retail sales including home furnishings, home garden and building materials, consumer electronics and department store sales also increased 0.41% from December climbing 1.19% above the level seen in January 2012 while, adjusting for inflation, “real” discretionary retail sales declined 0.33% over the same period.

On a “nominal” basis, there had appeared to be “rough correlation” between strong home value appreciation and strong retail spending preceding the housing bust and an even stronger correlation when home values started to decline.

The following chart shows the year-over-year change to nominal discretionary retail sales and the year-over-year change to nominal the S&P/Case-Shiller Composite home price index since 1993 and since 2000.

As you can see there is, at the very least, a coincidental change to home values and consumer spending during the boom and then the bust, but as home values have continued to decline, retail spending has remained low but has not continued to consistently contract.

Looking at the chart below (click for full-screen dynamic version), adjusted for inflation (CPI for retail sales, CPI “less shelter” for S&P/Case-Shiller Composite) the “rough correlation” between the year-over-year change to the “discretionary” retail sales series and the year-over-year S&P/Case-Shiller Composite series seems now even more significant.

Radar Watching: November 2012

As I have noted in the past, since the home price index data provided by Radar Logic is more timely, unadjusted and un-smoothed it is particularly useful for gaining deeper visibility over our housing markets.

As for the latest trends, it’s important to note that the 25-MSA Composite is continuing to show significant year-over-year increases rising 9.15% above the level seen in November 2011 with prices following a typical but notably less severe seasonal trend.

It's important to recognize that since 2009, the fall has typically brought slumping prices into November, a short pause through the holiday season, and then slumping prices into March where the slow winter transactions effectively bottom preceding the spring upswing.

This year we see a very small price drop moving into November possibly indicating that the remainder of the price declines until March could also be relativity small.

S&P/Case-Shiller: June 2012

Note... be sure to bookmark the overall S&P/Case-Shiller Dashboard or the Scary Housing Dashboard of the weakest markets for a real-time view of all the markets tracked by S&P.

The latest release of the S&P/Case-Shiller (CSI) home price indices for June reported that the non-seasonally adjusted Composite-10 price index increased 2.18% since May while the Composite-20 index increased 2.33% over the same period.

The latest CSI data clearly indicates that the price trends are experiencing an uptrend through the typically more active spring-summer season and as I recently pointed out, the more timely and less distorted Radar Logic RPX data is continuing to capture notable rising prices driven primarily by seasonality.

The 10-city composite index increased 0.10% as compared to June 2011 while the 20-city composite increased 0.50% over the same period.

Both of the broad composite indices show significant peak declines slumping -31.49% for the 10-city national index and -31.14% for the 20-city national index on a peak comparison basis.

To better visualize today’s results use Blytic.com to view the full release.

Radar Watching: May 2012

As I have noted in the past, since the home price index data provided by Radar Logic is more timely, unadjusted and un-smoothed it is particularly useful for gaining deeper visibility over our housing markets.

As for the latest trends, it’s important to note that the 25-MSA Composite is showing the first year-over-year gins seen since mid-2010 while prices continue to bounce from the lows set in late-January.

The latest data shows that as of early-May, prices have increased 0.01% above the level seen in May 2011 continuing the pattern of past years with prices now heading higher as the data moves into the typically more active spring selling season.