Beantown Bust: Boston Home Sales and Prices April 2011

Looking at the latest data from the Massachusetts Association of Realtors and S&P/Case-Shiller, it is easy to see that the Bay State is now fully entrenched in the infamous housing "double-dip".

Prices and sales are falling, inventory is up and the monthly supply is over 10 months... now with no government tax scam muddying the view, the market is showing it's true "organic" trends while it continues slumping through the worst decline in generations.

The Massachusetts Association of Realtors (MAR) released their Existing Home Sales Report for April showing that single family homes sales increased 13% from March but fell a whopping 20% below the level seen in April 2010 with detached single family median home prices plunging 8.5% below the level seen last year.

Condo sales increased 12.1% from March but dropped 26.1% below the level seen in April 2010 while median selling prices increased 6.7% above the level seen a year earlier.

The S&P/Case-Shiller (CSI) Boston index indicated that area single family home prices declined 1.66% between February and March and registering a year-over-year decline of 2.66%, the eighth consecutive annual decline.

As for condos, the Boston condo CSI indicated area unit values declined 1.86% between February and March with values showing a year-over-year decline of 3.08%.

Single family homes stayed on the market for an average of 151 days while condos stayed an average of 135 days, both values significantly higher than the level seen last year indicating that the sales pace is continuing to slide while the monthly supply of both single family homes and condos remains at or above 10 months.

As in months past, be on the lookout for the inflation adjusted charts produced by BostonBubble.com for an even more accurate "real" view of the current home price movement.

Beantown Bust: Boston Home Sales and Prices January 2011

Recently the Massachusetts Association of Realtors (MAR) released their Existing Home Sales Report for January showing that single family homes sales declined 32.4% from December but increased 13.1% above the level seen in January 2010 with detached single family median home prices falling 5.2% below the level seen last year.

Condo sales, on the other hand, declined on both a monthly and annual basis dropping 35% from December and 5.2% from January 2010 while median selling prices declined 3.9% below the level seen a year earlier.

The S&P/Case-Shiller (CSI) Boston index indicated that area single family home prices declined 0.14% between November and December 2010 and registering a year-over-year decline of 0.81%, the third consecutive annual decline.

As for condos, the Boston condo CSI indicated area unit values declined 0.75% between November and December 2010 with values showing a year-over-year decline of 1.20%.

Single family home inventory rose 4% over the level seen in January 2010 with the monthly supply sitting at a whopping 11 months while condo inventory declined 5% but showed an even worse 11.1 months of supply.

Single family homes stayed on the market for an average of 143 days while condos stayed an average of 151 days, both values significantly higher than the level seen last year indicating that the sales pace is continuing to slide.

As in months past, be on the lookout for the inflation adjusted charts produced by BostonBubble.com for an even more accurate "real" view of the current home price movement.

Beantown Bust: Boston Home Sales and Prices November 2010

Recently the Massachusetts Association of Realtors (MAR) released their Existing Home Sales Report for November showing that single family homes sales slumped 5.5% on a month-to-month basis from October leaving sales a hideous 31.5% below the level seen in November 2009.

Similarly, condos went flat from October but declined a whopping 38.7% below the level seen in November 2009.

The S&P/Case-Shiller (CSI) Boston index indicated that area single family home prices declined a notable 1.23% between September and October 2010 with values registering a year-over-year decline of 0.23%, the first annual decline in eleven months.

As for condos, the Boston condo CSI indicated area unit values declined 1.00% between September and October 2010 with values showing a slight year-over-year gain of 0.33%.

Obviously the government's sham housing tax gimmick worked to drive sales last year and further, in the absence of this scam, scores of hapless Bostonians have crept back to the sidelines all downhearted, empty pockets... no deposit... no government freebie... no phony baloney house purchase.

Where the trends will go from here should be pretty obvious... back to the weak "organic" trend that preceded the government's malfeasance... subdued home sales and lower prices.

As in months past, be on the lookout for the inflation adjusted charts produced by BostonBubble.com for an even more accurate "real" view of the current home price movement.

Beantown Bust: Boston Home Sales and Prices August 2010

This week, the Massachusetts Association of Realtors (MAR) will release their Existing Home Sales Report for August showing that single family homes sales increased just 3.1% on a month-to-month basis from July (a slight reprieve from the hideous 38% collapse seen from June to July) leaving sales 18.35% below the level seen in August 2009.

Similarly, condos bounced up 13.2% in August from July after a collapse which saw sales plummet 42.9% between June and July.

The single family median home value increased 4.8% on a year-over-year basis to $330,000 while condo median prices increased 9.2% to $304,700.

Obviously the government's sham tax gimmick worked to drive sales this spring and further, in the absence of this scam, scores of hapless Bostonians have crept back to the sidelines all downhearted, empty pockets... no deposit... no government freebie... no phony baloney house purchase.

Where the trends will go from here should be pretty obvious... back to the weak "organic" trend that preceded the government's malfeasance... subdued home sales and lower prices.



To better illustrate the drop-off in home prices and the potential length and depth of the current housing decline, I have compared BOTH the normalized price movement, annual and peak percentage changes to the Boston CSI home price index from the 80s-90s housing bust to today’s bust.



The “normalized” chart compares the normalized Boston price index from the peak of the 80s-90s bust to the peak of today’s bust.

The “peak” chart compares the percentage change, comparing monthly Boston index values to the peak value seen just prior to the first declining month all the way through the downturn and the full recovery of home prices.

In this way, this chart captures ALL months of the downturn from the peak to trough to peak again.

As in months past, be on the lookout for the inflation adjusted charts produced by BostonBubble.com for an even more accurate "real" view of the current home price movement.

Sinking Ships – MA vs. RI March 2010

As I had noted in my original post, historically it has been very unusual for there to be more than a 1.5% difference (either more or less) between the unemployment rates if Massachusetts and Rhode Island.

Recently though, we have seen a historically unusual spread between Rhode Island’s high rate and Massachusetts’ far lower rate.

In fact, the latest 3.3% spread still nearly exceeds ALL spreads seen in at least 40 years.

The latest regional unemployment report shows that, in March, the Rhode Island unemployment rate declined slightly at 12.6% while the Massachusetts rate dropped to to 9.3%.

Massachusetts is still experiencing large year-over-year increases to unemployment jumping 20.78% on a year-over-year basis continuing to indicate that Mass is slogging through a period of serious job weakness.

Sinking Ships – MA vs. RI January 2010

As I had noted in my original post, historically it has been very unusual for there to be more than a 1.5% difference (either more or less) between the unemployment rates if Massachusetts and Rhode Island.

Recently though, we have seen a historically unusual spread between Rhode Island’s high rate and Massachusetts’ far lower rate.

In fact, the latest 3.2% spread still nearly exceeds ALL spreads seen in at least 40 years.

This indicates that either Rhode Island’s current rate would need to fall dramatically or the Massachusetts rate would need to increase sharply…. My sense, especially in light of the financial turmoil seen since September 2008, is that Mass will be continually playing catch-up.

The latest regional unemployment report shows that, in January, the Rhode Island unemployment rate stayed steady at 12.7% while the Massachusetts rate jumped to 9.5%.

Massachusetts is still experiencing large year-over-year increases to unemployment jumping 28.38% on a year-over-year basis continuing to indicate that Mass is slogging through a period of serious job weakness.

Crashachusetts Existing Home Sales and Prices: December 2009

Yesterday, the Massachusetts Association of Realtors (MAR) released their Existing Home Sales Report for December showing that single family homes sales jumped 14.6% on a year-over-year basis while condo sales surged 31.7% over the same period.

Single family median home value increased 10.9% on a year-over-year basis to $305,000 while condo median prices increased 10.9% to $255,000.

Again, these results are indicating not only that the government’s ludicrous subsidy of residential real estate (the market, the industry and Realtors) worked to drive a significant number of sales, but that housing fever is still alive and well.

This should come as a truly disappointing blow to anyone who has the audacity to think that a healthy and significant correction in prices is actually a necessary step in the process of healing our distorted and high cost of living area.

What gives the government the right to attempt to create a floor under housing, an asset/service carrying likely the single greatest cost any typical household has to bear?

If market forces would naturally drive down sales and prices making the cost of living more affordable why should government and industry groups like the Realtors interfere?

But, federal meddlers and conniving interested parties don’t think in those terms… they support prices out of a bias in favor of property owners on the upper end, they create and support public housing projects for those on the lower end… and what of those in the middle?... you get to foot the bill one way or another.

So the beat goes on… Buyers snap back to a behavior we all now know caused tremendous distortions and costly excesses, the Feds feel satisfied that they bought enough votes to secure their next election and Realtors line their pockets with commission loot that is now the direct transformation of your tax dollars.

What have we learned from this whole ordeal? … likely nothing.

But in any event, this surge of activity can only run so long… contrary to popular belief, there is not simply an endless supply of sidelined buyers just ready to snap up the next government tax gimmick.

Eventually even these sneaky devices will fail to stimulate the lemmings and the natural market force will show its true character.

Whether Mr. housing market will come out of this distorted period depressed and dejected or spry and agile is anyone’s guess but, given the latest results and the recent extension of the federal governments housing policy, we should be prepared for another season of distorted sales volume.


As in months past, be on the lookout for the inflation adjusted charts produced by BostonBubble.com for an even more accurate "real" view of the current home price movement.

Key Statistics from the Report:

Single Family results compared to December 2008

• Sales: increased 14.6%
• Median Selling Price: increased 10.9%
• Inventory: declined 14%
• Current Months Supply: 7.2
• Current Days on Market: 125

Condo results compared to December 2008

• Sales: increased 31.7%
• Median Selling Price: increased 10.9%
• Inventory: declined 16%
• Current Months supply: 5.6
• Current Days on Market: 136

Sinking Ships – MA vs. RI December 2009

Subtitle: MA Unemployment … Picking Up!

As I had noted in my original post, historically it has been very unusual for there to be more than a 1.5% difference (either more or less) between the unemployment rates if Massachusetts and Rhode Island.

Recently though, we have seen a historically unusual spread between Rhode Island’s high rate and Massachusetts’ far lower rate.

In fact, the latest 3.5% spread nearly exceeds ALL spreads seen in at least 40 years.

This indicates that either Rhode Island’s current rate would need to fall dramatically or the Massachusetts rate would need to increase sharply…. My sense, especially in light of the financial turmoil seen since September 2008, is that Mass will be continually playing catch-up.

The latest regional unemployment report shows that, in December, the Rhode Island unemployment rate increased to 12.9% while the Massachusetts rate jumped to 9.4%.

Massachusetts is still experiencing large year-over-year increases to unemployment jumping 46.88% on a year-over-year basis continuing to indicate that Mass is slogging through a period of serious job weakness.

Crashachusetts Existing Home Sales and Prices: November 2009

This week, the Massachusetts Association of Realtors (MAR) released their Existing Home Sales Report for November showing that single family homes sales absolutely surged jumping 63.1% on a year-over-year basis while condo sales exploded up 76.2% over the same period.

Single family median home value increased 0.7% on a year-over-year basis to $285,000 while condo median prices declined 0.4% to $249,000.

Obviously these results are indicating not only that the government’s subsidy of residential real estate (the market, the industry and Realtors) worked to drive a significant number of sales, but that housing fever is still alive and well.

This should come as a truly disappointing blow to anyone who has the audacity to think that a healthy and significant correction in prices is actually a necessary step in the process of healing our distorted and high cost of living area.

What gives the government the right to attempt to create a floor under housing, an asset/service carrying likely the single greatest cost any typical household has to bear?

If market forces would naturally drive down sales and prices making the cost of living more affordable why should government and industry groups like the Realtors interfere?

But, federal meddlers and conniving interested parties don’t think in those terms… they support prices out of a bias in favor of property owners on the upper end, they create and support public housing projects for those on the lower end… and what of those in the middle?... you get to foot the bill one way or another.

So the beat goes on… Buyers snap back to a behavior we all now know caused tremendous distortions and costly excesses, the Feds feel satisfied that they bought enough votes to secure their next election and Realtors line their pockets with commission loot that is now the direct transformation of your tax dollars.

What have we learned from this whole ordeal? … likely nothing.

But in any event, this surge of activity can only run so long… contrary to popular belief, there is not simply and endless supply of sidelined buyers just ready to snap up the next government tax gimmick.

Eventually even these sneaky devices will fail to stimulate the lemmings and the natural market force will show its true character.

Whether Mr. housing market will come out of this distorted period depressed and dejected or spry and agile is anyone’s guess but, given the latest results and the recent extension of the federal governments housing policy, we should be prepared for another season of distorted sales volume.


As in months past, be on the lookout for the inflation adjusted charts produced by BostonBubble.com for an even more accurate "real" view of the current home price movement.

Key Statistics from the Report:

Single Family results compared to November 2008

• Sales: increased 63.1%
• Median Selling Price: increased 0.7%
• Inventory: declined 15%
• Current Months Supply: 6.5
• Current Days on Market: 116

Condo results compared to November 2008

• Sales: increased 76.2%
• Median Selling Price: decreased 0.4%
• Inventory: declined 14%
• Current Months supply: 6.5
• Current Days on Market: 128

Sinking Ships – MA vs. RI November 2009

Subtitle: MA Unemployment … Peaking out or About to Pick Up!

As I had noted in my original post, historically it has been very unusual for there to be more than a 1.5% difference (either more or less) between the unemployment rates if Massachusetts and Rhode Island.

Recently though, we have seen a historically unusual spread between Rhode Island’s high rate and Massachusetts’ far lower rate.

In fact, the latest 3.9% spread nearly exceeds ALL spreads seen in at least 40 years.

This indicates that either Rhode Island’s current rate would need to fall dramatically or the Massachusetts rate would need to increase sharply…. My sense, especially in light of the financial turmoil seen since September 2008, is that Mass will be continually playing catch-up.

The latest regional unemployment report shows that, in November, the Rhode Island unemployment rate declined to 12.7% while the Massachusetts rate declined slightly to 8.8%.

Massachusetts is still experiencing large year-over-year increases to unemployment jumping 44.26% on a year-over-year basis continuing to indicate that Mass is slogging through a period of serious job weakness.

Crashachusetts Existing Home Sales and Prices: October 2009

This week, the Massachusetts Association of Realtors (MAR) released their Existing Home Sales Report for October showing that single family homes sales surged 17.7% on a year-over-year basis while condo sales also jumped 17.2% over the same period.

Single family median home value declined 2.6% on a year-over-year basis to $287,000 while condo median prices declined 4.0% to $240,000.

Although these results will likely be touted by MAR and the Boston Globe (… both with significant interest in promoting “good news” for housing) as an indication that the housing market has rebounded, it’s important to note that without the propping of the governments “homebuyer” tax gimmick these results would be significantly weaker.

Sales have surged as “buyers” leapt for their $8000 tax carrot but in all likelihood the simulative effects have merely shifted demand forward in time, stealing sales from the rest of this year and on into next.

Now that the feds have even stepped up their support of unaffordable housing by broadening the hosing tax gimmick to cover “move-up” buyers with higher income requirements, it will be interesting to see the effects on our housing market.

This sham government stimulation is poorly targeted and absurdly expensive but is it possible that it may soon become ineffective?.. only time will tell.

Of course, you know where the Massachusetts Association of Realtor president Gary Rogers stands on government handouts and trickery… he applauds it all the while lining his and his fellow “brokers on commission” pockets with your tax dollars:

“It is apparent from this significant jump in home sales in October, which is the biggest year-over-year gain we’ve seen since November 2004, that buyers were making sure to take advantage of the tax credit prior to its deadline, … Now that the President has extended and expanded the credit, we should see continued improvement in the market through the winter and into the spring.”


As in months past, be on the lookout for the inflation adjusted charts produced by BostonBubble.com for an even more accurate "real" view of the current home price movement.

Key Statistics from the Report:

Single Family results compared to October 2008

• Sales: increased 17.7%
• Median Selling Price: declined 2.6%
• Inventory: declined 15%
• Current Months Supply: 7.1
• Current Days on Market: 126

Condo results compared to October 2008

• Sales: increased 17.2%
• Median Selling Price: decreased 4.0%
• Inventory: declined 16%
• Current Months supply: 7.3
• Current Days on Market: 137

Sinking Ships – MA vs. RI October 2009

Subtitle: MA Unemployment … At The Peak?!

As I had noted in my original post, historically it has been very unusual for there to be more than a 1.5% difference (either more or less) between the unemployment rates if Massachusetts and Rhode Island.

Recently though, we have seen a historically unusual spread between Rhode Island’s high rate and Massachusetts’ far lower rate.

In fact, the latest 4% spread now exceeds ALL spreads seen in at least 40 years.

This indicates that either Rhode Island’s current rate would need to fall dramatically or the Massachusetts rate would need to increase sharply…. My sense, especially in light of the financial turmoil seen since September 2008, is that Mass will be continually playing catch-up.

The latest regional unemployment report shows that, in September, the Rhode Island unemployment rate declined to 12.9% while the Massachusetts rate declined to 8.9%.

Massachusetts is still experiencing large year-over-year increases to unemployment jumping 53.45% on a year-over-year basis continuing to indicate that Mass is slogging through a period of serious job weakness.

Crashachusetts Existing Home Sales and Prices: September 2009

This week, the Massachusetts Association of Realtors (MAR) released their Existing Home Sales Report for September showing that single family homes sales jumped 4.6% on a year-over-year basis while condo sales surged 12.2% over the same period.

Single family median home value declined 1.7% on a year-over-year basis to $290,000 while condo median prices increased 1.7% to $259,450.

Though these results will likely be touted by MAR and the Boston Globe (… both with significant interest in promoting “good news” for housing) as an indication that the housing market has rebounded, it’s important to note that without the propping of the governments “homebuyer” tax gimmick these results would be significantly weaker.

Sales reached their peak in July (as is typical) and have been down consecutively ever since, suggesting that the tax handout pulled purchases forward into the summer leaving the fall and winter with potentially less demand… October’s results will be interesting indeed.

In any event, I have updated the sales chart to capture a rough picture of what the sales trend might have looked like without all the housing welfare.

In the chart below (the top chart), the blue line indicates the actual results while the green removes 5% of sales from since May, the purple removes 10%, the light blue removes 15% and finally the orange remove 20%.

Notice that IF the feds housing bribes added 5% more sales, removing them would result in a year that would have peaked out at about the same level as last year, subtracting 10% to 15% would have seen the consistent downward trend firmly continuing while removing 20% (a bit aggressive even for my standards) would have seen a significant new leg down.

Now that it appears almost certain that the feds will step up their support of unaffordable housing by broadening the hosing tax gimmick to cover move-up buyers with higher income requirements, it will be interesting to see the effects on our housing market.

This sham government stimulation is poorly targeted and absurdly expensive but is it possible that it may soon become ineffective?.. only time will tell.

Of course, you know where the Massachusetts Association of Realtor president Gary Rogers stands on government handouts and trickery:

“We really feel that the past three months of positive home sales are a result of the $8,000 tax credit and its impending expiration date,… Despite this bump, we are concerned that it will take longer and be more difficult for the market to stabilize without extending the Federal tax credit for homebuyers past the December 1 deadline.”


As in months past, be on the lookout for the inflation adjusted charts produced by BostonBubble.com for an even more accurate "real" view of the current home price movement.

Key Statistics from the Report:

Single Family results compared to September 2008

• Sales: increased 4.6%
• Median Selling Price: declined 1.7%
• Inventory: declined 12%
• Current Months Supply: 7.1
• Current Days on Market: 124

Condo results compared to September 2008

• Sales: increased 12.2%
• Median Selling Price: increased 1.7%
• Inventory: declined 16%
• Current Months supply: 6.7
• Current Days on Market: 136

Sinking Ships – MA vs. RI September 2009

Subtitle: MA Unemployment … Look Out Above!

As I had noted in my original post, historically it has been very unusual for there to be more than a 1.5% difference (either more or less) between the unemployment rates if Massachusetts and Rhode Island.

Recently though, we have seen a historically unusual spread between Rhode Island’s high and accelerating rate and Massachusetts’ far lower but now quickly rising rate.

In fact, the latest 3.7% spread remains near the peak and exceeds ALL spreads seen in at least 40 years.

This indicates that either Rhode Island’s current rate would need to fall dramatically or the Massachusetts rate would need to increase sharply…. My sense, especially in light of the financial turmoil seen since September 2008, is that Mass will be continually playing catch-up.

The latest regional unemployment report shows that, in September, the Rhode Island unemployment rate increased to 13.0% while the Massachusetts rate jumped to 9.3%.

Massachusetts experienced the nearly the largest year-over-year increase in unemployment since the recessionary environment that followed the tech-led dot-com bust jumping 66.07% on a year-over-year basis clearly indicating that Mass is now embroiled in a period of truly explosive unemployment growth.

Sinking Ships – MA vs. RI August 2009

Subtitle: MA Unemployment … Immune?!

As I had noted in my original post, historically it has been very unusual for there to be more than a 1.5% difference (either more or less) between the unemployment rates if Massachusetts and Rhode Island.

Recently though, we have seen a historically unusual spread between Rhode Island’s high and accelerating rate and Massachusetts’ far lower but now quickly rising rate.

In fact, after a short period of flattening and decline earlier in the year the latest 3.7% spread remains near the peak and exceeds ALL spreads seen in at least 40 years.

This indicates that either Rhode Island’s current rate would need to fall dramatically or the Massachusetts rate would need to increase sharply…. My sense, especially in light of the financial turmoil seen since September 2008, is that Mass will be continually playing catch-up.

The latest regional unemployment report shows that, in August, the Rhode Island unemployment rate increased to 12.8% while the Massachusetts rate jumped to 9.1%.

Massachusetts experienced the nearly the largest year-over-year increase in unemployment since the recessionary environment that followed the tech-led dot-com bust jumping 68.52% on a year-over-year basis clearly indicating that Mass is now embroiled in a period of truly explosive unemployment growth.